Author Topic: The Former Nationals Watch (2021) (Read 13643 times)

Padres now have four or five ex-Nats: Detwiler, Hudson, Stammen, plus Melancon and Austin Adams. The last two were short-timers, but at least they drew a paycheck from the Lerner family.

varoadking · « **Reply #431:** September 15, 2021, 07:43:30 PM »

Schwarby en fuego...

imref · « **Reply #432:** September 16, 2021, 03:27:37 PM »

AJ Cole pitching for Buffalo today against Rochester.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #433:** September 17, 2021, 11:56:28 AM »

Harper the best hitter in baseball if you go by wRC+. Juan Soto fourth! Vlad Guerrero has a good argument for AL MVP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=18,d

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #434:** September 17, 2021, 02:33:24 PM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on September 17, 2021, 11:56:28 AM

Harper the best hitter in baseball if you go by wRC+. Juan Soto fourth! Vlad Guerrero has a good argument for AL MVP.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2021-01-01&enddate=2021-12-31&sort=18,d

Well, there's this Ohtani fellow. Even on his own team, Semien has an argument.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #435:** September 17, 2021, 02:40:14 PM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on September 17, 2021, 02:33:24 PM

Well, there's this Ohtani fellow. Even on his own team, Semien has an argument.

Yes.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #436:** September 22, 2021, 01:49:36 PM »

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jon-lesters-well-timed-hot-streak/

Quote

Lester signed a one-year, $5 million deal with the Nationals in late January, but missed time during spring training to undergo a parathyroidectomy, and then tested positive for COVID-19 amid the Nationals’ first outbreak of the season. He finally made his season debut on April 30, and over the course of 16 starts, posted a 5.02 ERA, 5.42 FIP, and 4.90 xERA in 75.1 innings. It wasn’t pretty.

Through 10 starts as a Cardinal, the bad ones (7.08 ERA and 5.27 FIP in 20.1 innings over his first four turns) and good, Lester has a 5.53 FIP and 5.09 xERA… but a 4.02 ERA, which is right around the park-adjusted league average. In other words, by every indicator but that last figure, he’s actually pitched worse as a Cardinal than as a National.
...
hat you can see in looking more closely at his actual and expected batting average and slugging percentage is a bigger swing; where his batting average was 31 points higher than expected with the Nationals, it’s now 12 points lower with the Cardinals, and for slugging percentage, he’s gone from 62 points over expectations to three points.

One thing to note is that Lester has tweaked his pitch mix since coming over to the Cardinals, throwing more sinkers and fewer four-seam fastballs and cutters. All three pitches have gotten better results:
...
The St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold recently explained Lester’s remixed repertoire:

Quote
After the last-minute deadline trade that brought him from Washington, Lester met with Maddux and other coaches to go over a “snapshot” of his pitch effectiveness and usage. The coaches suggested a shift in his mix of pitches to make the cutter — his best pitch — more effective and possibly even rely on it less. He also could use the outside part of the plate against righthanded batters more effectively. That meant trusting his changeup out there. He has started to use it to play off his fastballs in the same way Wainwright flexes his curve.
...
At every other position, where the Nationals mostly have solid defenders, the Cardinals have good to excellent ones. For a pitcher like Lester who’s not missing many bats these days, that’s huge. That 2.27 ERA hot streak owes plenty to a .184 BABIP, which is unsustainable. It also owes something to good sequencing; of the 10 homers that Lester has allowed as a Cardinal, only the first of them had a runner on base; the other nine were solo shots.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #437:** September 22, 2021, 02:11:58 PM »

Lester's FIP with the Cards is 5.53. With the Nationals it was 5.41. So much for pitching coach magic. BABIP is .256 there while it was .314 in DC. BABIP magic.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #438:** September 22, 2021, 02:31:39 PM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on September 22, 2021, 02:11:58 PM

Lester's FIP with the Cards is 5.53. With the Nationals it was 5.41. So much for pitching coach magic. BABIP is .256 there while it was .314 in DC. BABIP magic.

also, much better defense. not that the schwarber-less nats are bad. more St L is very good.

Elvir Ovcina · « **Reply #439:** September 22, 2021, 06:19:29 PM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on September 22, 2021, 02:31:39 PM

also, much better defense. not that the schwarber-less nats are bad. more St L is very good.

Without looking at the metrics, where is the Nationals' current defense anything other than subpar? RF, maybe 1B and LF? In other words, the three least important positions?

I mean, Soto might actually be the best defender at his current position on the team and he's unremarkable. The rest of them seem like somewhere between approximately average and total liabilities.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #440:** September 22, 2021, 08:32:01 PM »

Soto I think is 5 runs plus on drs. Maybe escobar is plus. They just aren't disasters for the most part. They are middling.

Elvir Ovcina · « **Reply #441:** September 22, 2021, 09:39:58 PM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on September 22, 2021, 08:32:01 PM

Soto I think is 5 runs plus on drs. Maybe escobar is plus. They just aren't disasters for the most part. They are middling.

Escobar is a zero in DRS and negative in total zone.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #442:** September 22, 2021, 09:50:11 PM »

Quote from: Elvir Ovcina on September 22, 2021, 09:39:58 PM

Escobar is a zero in DRS and negative in total zone.

I like to look at 1- BABIP against the pitcher. That's basically balls in play turned into outs (not counting double plays). by that, the Nats are 11th overall and 21st since 8/1.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #443:** September 25, 2021, 03:55:36 PM »

Amazing. Guy can hit, run, field and now catch touchdowns.

Count Walewski · « **Reply #444:** September 29, 2021, 05:37:54 PM »

Michael A. Taylor gets paid, signed to a 2-year extension with the Royals

https://www.mlb.com/news/michael-a-taylor-signs-extension-with-royals

varoadking · « **Reply #445:** September 29, 2021, 05:58:36 PM »

Quote from: Count Walewski on September 29, 2021, 05:37:54 PM

Michael A. Taylor gets paid, signed to a 2-year extension with the Royals

https://www.mlb.com/news/michael-a-taylor-signs-extension-with-royals

Good for him...

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #446:** September 29, 2021, 06:17:28 PM »

Quote from: Count Walewski on September 29, 2021, 05:37:54 PM

Michael A. Taylor gets paid, signed to a 2-year extension with the Royals

https://www.mlb.com/news/michael-a-taylor-signs-extension-with-royals

Perfect signing for a non contending team.

welch · « **Reply #447:** September 30, 2021, 08:40:18 AM »

From the article about MAT:

Quote

Taylor’s highlight reel of catches and his career-high 11 outfield assists are convincing enough, but defensive metrics all agree that Taylor has planted himself firmly in the Gold Glove conversation. Taylor leads the Majors with 21 defensive runs saved, according to Fangraphs, and his 14 Outs Above Average, per Statcast, are tied for the Majors lead among all outfielders. Taylor’s 12.7 ultimate zone rating is the best of any player regardless of position.

....“Watching how Michael patrols center field here is artwork,” manager Mike Matheny added.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #448:** September 30, 2021, 08:58:55 AM »

Quote from: welch on September 30, 2021, 08:40:18 AM

From the article about MAT:

HE played so few innings in 2019 and 2020 that some metrics had him negative value defensively. Probably more an indictment of small samples and the metrics than Taylor. In the 3 years he has been nearly full time (2017, 2018, 2021), '17 and '21 had him in the top of the rankings for his position, and '18 had him merely as a plus OF.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #449:** September 30, 2021, 09:15:50 AM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on September 30, 2021, 08:58:55 AM

HE played so few innings in 2019 and 2020 that some metrics had him negative value defensively. Probably more an indictment of small samples and the metrics than Taylor. In the 3 years he has been nearly full time (2017, 2018, 2021), '17 and '21 had him in the top of the rankings for his position, and '18 had him merely as a plus OF.

At an OPS+ of 77 he better be damn good defensively. Robles was at 69 this year. If he could reach 80 would we still be running him out of town?