Author Topic: Rotation Considerations - 2021  (Read 2970 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Topic Start: March 12, 2021, 10:16:11 AM »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/strasburgs-return-and-a-thumbnail-guide-to-the-majors-most-improved-rotations/

Article discusses how Stras has looked so far in the Spring and how, with Strasburg back, the Nats look like one of the most improved quality rotations (Boston's more  improved, but coming off a low baseline)

On Strasburg:
Quote
On Tuesday, Strasburg took the mound for his first Grapefruit League appearance — against the Astros, coincidentally, albeit a much different team from the one he faced in the World Series, with Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, and Yuli Gurriel the only starters in both games. The 32-year-old righty threw 38 pitches, had good command of a fastball that reportedly sat at 93 mph and ranged from 91 to 93 (he averaged 93.9 mph in 2019, via Statcast), and retired five out of the six batters he faced. He struck out four, including Correa looking at a high fastball to end the first, Kyle Tucker looking at a fastball in the second, and Gurriel check-swinging at a low curveball.

On the rotation
Quote
With Strasburg’s return on track, the Nationals project to have one of the majors’ top rotations, and one of its most improved relative to last year. That makes sense qualitatively and has quantitative grounding as well, particularly given the scarcity of four-win pitchers on the free-agent market or elsewhere. Strasburg averaged 4.2 WAR from 2012 to ’19 and ranked seventh among all pitchers in WAR during that span (33.2) despite reaching the 30-start threshold just three times and qualifying for the ERA title (162 innings) just four times. He topped out at 5.9 WAR in 175.1 innings in 2017 and had nearly as strong a season (5.6 WAR) in 209 innings in ’19.

Without Strasburg, the Nationals’ rotation slipped from second in the NL in WAR in 2019 (22.0) to 12th (3.0); within all of MLB, their ranking slipped from fifth to 23rd. By ERA, their NL rank slid from eighth (4.28) to 13th (5.09), and by FIP they fell from third (4.14) to tied for 13th (5.02). The slide wasn’t all on Strasburg: The FIPs of Max Scherzer and Aníbal Sánchez both increased by more than a full run, and Patrick Corbin’s rose by two-thirds of a run. With Joe Ross opting out of the season due to health concerns, the team couldn’t come up with anything close to a reliable fifth starter (a description that has only intermittently applied to Ross himself), as both Austin Voth and Erick Fedde were tarred and feathered, with FIPs in the mid-6.00 range. ...

But in 2021, Strasburg is back, Sánchez is gone, Jon Lester is here (now minus one of his parathyroid gland), and Scherzer and Corbin are presumably better rested after throwing over 200 innings between the regular season and postseason in 2019. The unit projects to rank fifth in the majors in WAR via our Depth Charts at 15.1 WAR, about two wins below a closely bunched top tier that includes the Padres, Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees, who range from 17.3 to 16.9.

Offline imref

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #1: March 12, 2021, 10:28:12 AM »
Max looks decent so far as well, as does Corbin. :pray:

Offline Slateman

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #2: March 12, 2021, 11:22:25 AM »
Seems pretty clear Ross is getting all the opportunities for the number 5 spot.

Offline Mathguy

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #3: March 13, 2021, 02:21:14 PM »
So who will be the order of the first four ?

Seems pretty clear Ross is getting all the opportunities for the number 5 spot.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #4: March 13, 2021, 04:18:56 PM »
So who will be the order of the first four ?
Does that matter? I think you can guess from prior seasons?

Offline hotshot

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #5: March 13, 2021, 06:00:33 PM »
Max looks decent so far as well, as does Corbin. :pray:
What has Corbin's velocity been like this Spring?

Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #6: March 14, 2021, 10:36:40 PM »
This is the story of the 2021 season and honestly why I've basically tuned out this offseason, other than being ecstatic about the Josh Bell move.

If Strasburg and Scherzer are dealing, I'm pretty optimistic about 2021. Corbin would just be a bonus on top. If the two big dogs are going, crawl into the Wildcard and let's see what happens. It'll be a really fun season trying to get there, and I think the Nationals have enough to make it in October.

If just one of those two is rolling or, God forbid, they both struggle? Welcome to the rebuild.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #7: March 15, 2021, 08:11:09 AM »
This is the story of the 2021 season and honestly why I've basically tuned out this offseason, other than being ecstatic about the Josh Bell move.

If Strasburg and Scherzer are dealing, I'm pretty optimistic about 2021. Corbin would just be a bonus on top. If the two big dogs are going, crawl into the Wildcard and let's see what happens. It'll be a really fun season trying to get there, and I think the Nationals have enough to make it in October.

If just one of those two is rolling or, God forbid, they both struggle? Welcome to the rebuild.

Having a good fourth starter is important also. If Lester can come close to the season Sanchez had in 2019 that will be a big plus.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #8: March 15, 2021, 09:16:49 AM »
What has Corbin's velocity been like this Spring?

90-92.  About where he was last season during the actual games, but he was at like 87 last spring so it's a relatively positive sign.

Corbin would just be a bonus on top. If the two big dogs are going, crawl into the Wildcard and let's see what happens. It'll be a really fun season trying to get there, and I think the Nationals have enough to make it in October.

If just one of those two is rolling or, God forbid, they both struggle? Welcome to the rebuild.

They're not crawling into the wildcard with just Strasburg and Scherzer, considering the lineup.  Corbin's being paid $24 million this season and they need him to pitch like it.

Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #9: March 15, 2021, 11:10:44 AM »
Having a good fourth starter is important also. If Lester can come close to the season Sanchez had in 2019 that will be a big plus.
You can always find back of the rotation starters. But you're right on Lester. We need innings out of him.

Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #10: March 15, 2021, 11:18:24 AM »
They're not crawling into the wildcard with just Strasburg and Scherzer, considering the lineup.  Corbin's being paid $24 million this season and they need him to pitch like it.
I'm massively optimistic Josh Bell is going to hit for a ton of power. I'm optimistic Trea Turner will have a big contract year. I think Victor Robles regressing to the mean, which would be very helpful.

But you're right if my overly optimistic projections don't hold, then yes we need Corbin out there throwing high quality starts every five days to have a shot.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #11: March 15, 2021, 12:20:08 PM »
I'm massively optimistic Josh Bell is going to hit for a ton of power. I'm optimistic Trea Turner will have a big contract year. I think Victor Robles regressing to the mean, which would be very helpful.

But you're right if my overly optimistic projections don't hold, then yes we need Corbin out there throwing high quality starts every five days to have a shot.
Okay, but Trea Turner's contract year would be next season

Offline YadiSTAR aka Smithian

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #12: March 15, 2021, 02:41:50 PM »
Okay, but Trea Turner's contract year would be next season
He's playing for that early super extension so that the Nationals don't toss him into free agency to be bid on by the heathens in other markets  8)

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #13: March 15, 2021, 02:46:52 PM »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis-2021-bust-candidates-pitchers/

Both Corbin and Lester make the list.  Corbin because his loss of fastball effectiveness (velo and command) are making his slider easier to make contact with, Lester due to lack of swing and miss stuff and increasing hard contact.

Offline Mathguy

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #14: March 15, 2021, 05:27:34 PM »
For the starting 4, would the Nats have 2 righties, then 2 lefties ?  Or would they alternate RH, LH, RH, LH ?

Offline imref

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #15: March 15, 2021, 05:53:54 PM »
For the starting 4, would the Nats have 2 righties, then 2 lefties ?  Or would they alternate RH, LH, RH, LH ?

usually they like to alternate. So figure Max / Corbin / Strasburg / Lester / Ross.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #16: March 20, 2021, 07:12:13 PM »
https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/31076698/gonna-issue-30-teams-starting-pitchers-brace-unprecedented-innings-jump

Its behind a paywall, but essentially, teams are expecting a blood bath for pitchers arms.

Pretty much confirms what I believed early on, which was that the Nats are gonna have to keep a lot more pitchers up with the team to start the season. I dont think they should be letting any of the starters go more than six innings for the first month, and both Fedde and Voth could see significant time on the bump.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #17: March 20, 2021, 08:21:29 PM »
They will keep some multi inning guys, and some flexible position guys. Perez or Mercer I think will be 26th man, unless Swihart is brilliant

Offline Slateman

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Offline Mathguy

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #20: March 21, 2021, 07:05:17 PM »
Why JCA ?

Should have said "Lester" then "April Fools"

Offline rileyn

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #21: March 22, 2021, 06:40:30 AM »
When was the last time we won a deGrom v. Scherzer matchup?  deGrom is so good right now, why not get creative and start Ross on OD?  Hope for the reverse jinx, and then let Max go the next day rather than burning him up against deGrom.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #22: March 22, 2021, 07:54:34 AM »
When was the last time we won a deGrom v. Scherzer matchup?  deGrom is so good right now, why not get creative and start Ross on OD?  Hope for the reverse jinx, and then let Max go the next day rather than burning him up against deGrom.
We beat deGrom the last regular season game we played

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #23: March 22, 2021, 08:11:10 AM »
We beat deGrom the last regular season game we played
He is great but the last three years his W-L is 25-19. Not sure there overall record when he starts but they don’t seem to give him much supports.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Rotation Considerations - 2021
« Reply #24: March 22, 2021, 08:35:31 AM »
He is great but the last three years his W-L is 25-19. Not sure there overall record when he starts but they don’t seem to give him much supports.

Which is why W/L for pitchers is an incredibly stupid metric for evaluating pitchers.