Extend Scherzer?

[Dave in Fairfax]

Trend is important.

The Nats were 7-3 in the 10 games leading up to July 1. 2019. The Nats are 7-3 in their last ten games. Maybe we will look back on the 5-9 low point on April 19 as the shorter-term equivalent of the 19-31 start in 2019.

Go back and take a look at the July 2, 2019 GDT to see how pessimistic some folks here still were, even after the 23-10 turnaround from 19-31 to 42-41: https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=37718.0

[imref]

Nats twitter goes cold:

Washington Nationals
@Nationals
·
1h
Max Scherzer is the proud father of:

• Brooklyn May Scherzer
• Kacey Hart Scherzer
• Derek Alexander Scherzer
• The Miami Marlins

#Scherzday // #NATITUDE

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

 

[aspenbubba]

+1

[imref]

Bump. He’s heading into the CY conversation.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Bump. He’s heading into the CY conversation.

If deGrom continues on anything remotely approaching his current path, there's no conversation to be had. 

[WashingtonWizards23]

No. Any moment from now he will fall off the cliff. We should never resign him and just let the current contract expires

[imref]

If deGrom continues on anything remotely approaching his current path, there's no conversation to be had. 

Woodruff has a higher WAR than deGrom

[Elvir Ovcina]

Woodruff has a higher WAR than deGrom

Not per BR, and deGrom has an ERA under 1.  Let's not be silly about things.  WAR is essentially a counting stat, and deGrom's been hurt.  If he stays hurt, that opens the door.  Right now he'd win the award unanimously.  They're not giving the award to a dude with an ERA more than a run higher.

[Slateman]

Is there really any reason to extend a guy in the middle of a rebuild?

[imref]

Not per BR, and deGrom has an ERA under 1.  Let's not be silly about things.  WAR is essentially a counting stat, and deGrom's been hurt.  If he stays hurt, that opens the door.  Right now he'd win the award unanimously.  They're not giving the award to a dude with an ERA more than a run higher.

Obviously it’s deGrom at this point, but Max is getting up there

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Is there really any reason to extend a guy in the middle of a rebuild?

depends on what kind of rebuild you think the Nats will be doing.  I don't think / expect them to do a 3 year hard tank to accumulate high draft choices like the Astros and the Cubs did.  I think there are too many non-competitive teams to make it a lock you'll get 1-1-6 three years in a row like 2009-11 (IIRC). 

I suspect they will be a top 10 payroll through 2024, at a minimum.  The Nats don't have much in the way of commitments next year (Strasburg, Corbin, and Will Harris, and an option on Schwarber), so they will have a lot of flexibility to sign some guys like Scherzer who will keep you competitive while looking to hit on a few more Harrison / Gomes types to surround Soto and maybe some other internal pieces over that period.  Sticking my neck out, I'd say they may be able to go cheap on the bullpen during a rebuild if Finnegan, Clay, Voth, Suero, and Rainey are their core. 

IF they are a top 10 payroll, then there's probably some room to re-sign Scherzer, retain Turner next year at least at the start of the year, and, with a few signings that work out, have a shot at competing like the 2013 Red Sox or the 2019 Nats and maybe the 2014 Giants. Not the worst strategy.

[Slateman]

I dont think it will be a "hard tank" but I dont see this team being competitive for a couple more seasons. Nats dont have much in the way of committments, but they don't have a lot of talent projected to take over the MLB roster. None of the top 5 prospects are going to be MLB ready until next season, and thats assuming great development and no injuries.

I really dont see Rutledge, Cavalli, or Antuna being MLB ready until 2023. Probably about the time Garcia is ready as well. By that point, I assume Strasburg and Corbin will be albatrosses. I dont see Scherzer being a top of the rotation guy in his age 39 season.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

there will be "bridge years" and players but with their ability to spend they don't have to fall to a 70-75 win expectation level.  If they bring back Scherzer and Strasburg and Corbin don't become disasters, they can always be a surprise signing or two from making a run at 88 - 92 wins. 

[Slateman]

But there is virtually zero chance that Strasburg and Corbin wont be disasters

[JCA-CrystalCity]

But there is virtually zero chance that Strasburg and Corbin wont be disasters

next couple of years, there's chance, even with the first year and couple of months of Stras being   Corbin has given us quality starts 3 out of his last 4 starts, so I have some confidence he can be a mediocre underperformer (3/4) rather than a disaster. 

[Elvir Ovcina]

next couple of years, there's chance, even with the first year and couple of months of Stras being   Corbin has given us quality starts 3 out of his last 4 starts, so I have some confidence he can be a mediocre underperformer (3/4) rather than a disaster.

That's kinda a disaster for a dude who's owed over $27 million per year on average over the next 3 years.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

That's kinda a disaster for a dude who's owed over $27 million per year on average over the next 3 years.

contract-wise, disaster, but at least he would be usable as a rotation regular.

[sixthree175]

contract-wise, disaster, but at least he would be usable as a rotation regular.

The Corbin signing was a success because he helped the Nats win a World Series.  Everything from here on in is gravy (same as Jason Hayward with the Cubs).

Stras is a different story.  That inflated contract issued AFTER winning a World Series at his age and with his history of injury defied logic.

To me Max is in a similar situation as Zim.  He's made tons of money, won a World Series, and doesn't need to hold out for the highest bidder.  It's only right that he retires a Washington National (beneficial to both sides).   

[imref]

2.10 ERA, 0.760 WHIP

Vintage Max

[KnorrForYourMoney]

2.10 ERA, 0.760 WHIP

Vintage Max

"VINTAGE Max Scherzer!"

[Smithian]

I hope we get hot and we spend summer talking playoff chase. But a Cy Young caliber Max Scherzer trade package combined with a Trea Turner package could make a huge impact in turning around our unbelievably terrible farm system.

[GataNats]

I hope we get hot and we spend summer talking playoff chase. But a Cy Young caliber Max Scherzer trade package combined with a Trea Turner package could make a huge impact in turning around our unbelievably terrible farm system.

Why in the world would we entertain any thoughts or trading Turner?

[Slateman]

Why in the world would we entertain any thoughts or trading Turner?

Because its obvious he's going leave in free agency? Barring a significant injury, he's on pace to have an elite season. He is past the point where he will sign a team friendly extension. So unless he really loves the idea of deferred money, he's gone at the end of the 2022 season.

Smithian is the same camp as I am in that we believe it would be better to trade Turner and maximize the return for him

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Why in the world would we entertain any thoughts or trading Turner?

same reason Betts was traded. Something before they get nothing. They got Verdugo for multiple years, their next 2nd baseman, and a good catching prospect. Turner is less than Mookie, but he's got an argument that since 2019 he's one of the top few shrtstops and somewhere in the top 15 players overall.