Author Topic: Extend Scherzer?  (Read 1549 times)

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Online imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #75: April 27, 2021, 03:23:54 PM »
Price. Ugh.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #76: April 27, 2021, 03:38:13 PM »
These are the $200MM pitching contracts per Cot's (ranking is their place among all players contracts)
TBH, the only real awful won is Price, and he was effective in a World Series run.  You don't know about Cole, and you aren't 100% certain that Stras will be as awful as it looks right now.
So far the Strasburg one looks to be the worst

Online imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #77: April 27, 2021, 04:20:06 PM »
So far the Strasburg one looks to be the worst

way way too soon to reach that judgement.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #78: April 27, 2021, 04:33:03 PM »
way way too soon to reach that judgement.
Trending in that direction though.

Online imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #79: April 27, 2021, 04:41:50 PM »
Trending in that direction though.

True. but we're in year 2 of a 7 year deal.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #80: April 27, 2021, 04:43:10 PM »
Yeah, but the expectation is that he sucks in years 4-7, not years 1-3, when we kinda need him to be good. He's not suddenly going to be good again as a 36-year-old. We're looking at two completely lost seasons (assuming he's out until at least July) in the first two years of the deal. Already a disaster.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #81: April 27, 2021, 04:44:53 PM »
Yeah, but the expectation is that he sucks in years 4-7, not years 1-3, when we kinda need him to be good. He's not suddenly going to be good again as a 36-year-old.
Anyone who thought Strasburg wasnt going to be injury-riddled is a moron. I said as much at the time.

If any other team had given Strasburg the contract that the Lerners did, we would be laughing our assess off at them like we laugh at the Phillies for paying Wheeler.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #82: April 27, 2021, 04:49:13 PM »
Anyone who thought Strasburg wasnt going to be injury-riddled is a moron. I said as much at the time.

If any other team had given Strasburg the contract that the Lerners did, we would be laughing our assess off at them like we laugh at the Phillies for paying Wheeler.

Right, but giving a big-money deal to your expiring older FA core player after a world series title is just a thing that usually happens. Its illogical but sports is like that sometimes. Caps gave Oshie a major extension that people thought would be an anchor but he's been awesome. They're going to pay Ovechkin $10 million a year+ to ride into the sunset as a 42-year-old. I figured Strasburg would give us a couple more good years and then just be an IL stint guy for the remaining 4 or 5, but no one could have expected him to make only 4 starts since the World Series.

Offline welch

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #83: April 27, 2021, 05:05:57 PM »
Scherzer is still the team's best starter. Who replaces him?

Offline Slateman

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #84: April 27, 2021, 05:13:41 PM »
Right, but giving a big-money deal to your expiring older FA core player after a world series title is just a thing that usually happens. Its illogical but sports is like that sometimes. Caps gave Oshie a major extension that people thought would be an anchor but he's been awesome. They're going to pay Ovechkin $10 million a year+ to ride into the sunset as a 42-year-old. I figured Strasburg would give us a couple more good years and then just be an IL stint guy for the remaining 4 or 5, but no one could have expected him to make only 4 starts since the World Series.
Sure, except  normally those guys arent missing a ton of starts.  None of them missed 30% of their starts due to injury prior to getting those deals.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #85: April 27, 2021, 05:13:58 PM »
Scherzer is still the team's best starter. Who replaces him?
No one. Its time to rebuild.

Online imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #86: April 27, 2021, 05:24:57 PM »
Scherzer is still the team's best starter. Who replaces him?

Bauer? :)

I guess, based on the title of this thread, you don't replace him in 2022. :)

Best case scenario would seem to be another two decent years from Max, plus a Corbin rebound, plus a healthy Strasburg, and that Rutledge and Cavelli are able to make an impact at some point next year.  Plus Ross is still here.

That's a highly questionable rotation, but we'll see.  Stroman is a decent FA option as well.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #87: April 27, 2021, 06:12:31 PM »
Scherzer is still the team's best starter. Who replaces him?
If we trade Scherzer, then the guy replacing him is probably at this moment someone you haven't heard of and is in the rotation at Rochester or Harrisburg, and not as an exciting prospect, but organizational filler.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #88: April 27, 2021, 08:26:12 PM »
Not going to get $15 million pitching like this. 

Online imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #89: April 27, 2021, 08:31:22 PM »
Going to get quiet in here for at least four more days.

Online Five Banners

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #90: April 27, 2021, 08:49:35 PM »
Not going to get $15 million pitching like this. 

Having situational flashbacks to spring training given the setting, perhaps?

Offline Smithian

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #91: April 27, 2021, 09:08:01 PM »
 :smh:

Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #92: April 28, 2021, 05:00:47 AM »
He should just retire after the contract. He will just get spring training invites after this  :mg:

Online imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #93: May 02, 2021, 03:42:02 PM »
bump

Offline Duke of Earl

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #94: May 02, 2021, 05:49:38 PM »
Worst case scenario: we'll be .500 in July and the Lerners will publicly announce they are holding onto Max and will veto Rizzo's trade.
We were 42-41 July 1, 2019.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #95: May 02, 2021, 06:03:34 PM »
yes.  My thought was you sign him for two more years and you lower  the CBT hit this year, to create more room to negotiate an extension for Turner or possibly Soto. 

Turner is at something like $13MM this year, and the Nats have about $16MM room below the first CBT threshold, using the more conservative Cot's estimate rather than the others that are floating around. A reasonable extension offer for him might be 6 or 7 years at $25MM AAV.  Assuming the Nats want to leave close to $10MM room for deadline deals, other in-season moves, and bonuses, lowering Max's CBT amount from $28.7MM to $20MM via an extension, do that sort of extension and you could extend Turner at  $25MM while leaving $12MM+ in CBT room. 

It would require someone who is smarter about the CBT calculation to check my math, above.  Basically, rip up the last year of Max's contract at $35MM, give him a new contract for 2021-2023 for $60MM, payable over 2021-2016 at $10MM a year.  Including the $15MM signing bonus from his first contract payable in 2021 and deferred money for 2019 and 2020, that gives him an income stream of $25M per year from 2021-2026, and $5MM in 2027.  This gets way more complicated if the deferral is impacted by the 60 game season.

Main point, if you can lower Max's CBT hit by giving him an extension this year, you may generate room to extend Turner this year at a reasonable AAV. 

I think Scherzer is very solid for the next year.  While some of his numbers were off last year, that was still not far from an All Star season (13th in fWAR among NL starters with 30 innings, 9th in K/9, 15th in innings, middle of the pack ERA but top 1/4 xFIP). No loss of velocity, but a little bump in his walk rate and an elevated HR/FB with fewer pulled balls and more balls in the air.  At worst, he's the 3rd head of a triple headed monster.
If I'm right about the CBT, this would have been a nice move to lock in Scherzer and sing Turner with the CBT room it generated.

Offline welch

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #96: May 02, 2021, 06:27:55 PM »
Sign Scherzer. He is as good as he was in 2019, and that was pretty good.

Online imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #97: May 02, 2021, 06:49:04 PM »
We were 42-41 July 1, 2019.

Trend is important.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #98: May 02, 2021, 09:08:43 PM »
Sign Scherzer. He is as good as he was in 2019, and that was pretty good.

I'd prefer they sign him, but it all depends on what he wants (both years and $$$).  If he'll agree to about 2-3 years and around $30 million per, do it.  If he's thinking the same salary but at 5 years, that's gonna be a hard pass.  If he's okay with something like 2 years but $40 mil, I'd probably balk at the price tag but at least try and get it negotiated down some.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #99: May 02, 2021, 10:34:26 PM »
If things are going good for Max and the team, he'll stay on a short term market value-ish contract.   If not, he'll retire or move on.   They're past the games, and it will work itself out.