Author Topic: Extend Scherzer?  (Read 1550 times)

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Offline UMDNats

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #50: April 19, 2021, 12:31:02 PM »
Desperate Yankees going to give us their entire farm system for him as a rental this summer.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #51: April 19, 2021, 12:34:39 PM »
Desperate Yankees going to give us their entire farm system for him as a rental this summer.
I'm trying to think of a high performing player in contract year moved at deadline who didn't stay. Only recent one that comes to mind without research is Manny Machado. The Dodgers gave up a pretty decent package of prospects who all flamed out with the Orioles. Go look at the prospects rankings on Machado trade and I would take 75% of that happily.


Offline UMDNats

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #52: April 19, 2021, 12:40:07 PM »
I'm trying to think of a high performing player in contract year moved at deadline who didn't stay. Only recent one that comes to mind without research is Manny Machado. The Dodgers gave up a pretty decent package of prospects who all flamed out with the Orioles. Go look at the prospects rankings on Machado trade and I would take 75% of that happily.



Yankees have a tasty-looking prospect list. Garcia & Dominguez should be a lock IMO. They're going to be super desperate to make a run and if Max is at a Cy Young-ish level he'll command a haul because the NYC media will be frothing at the mouth. :whip:

Offline Slateman

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #53: April 19, 2021, 04:34:13 PM »
Desperate Yankees going to give us their entire farm system for him as a rental this summer.
Not a chance.

Yankees have a tasty-looking prospect list. Garcia & Dominguez should be a lock IMO. They're going to be super desperate to make a run and if Max is at a Cy Young-ish level he'll command a haul because the NYC media will be frothing at the mouth. :whip:
Lol, the Yankees arent giving up Jasson Dominguez for two months of Scherzer.

Offline imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #54: April 21, 2021, 08:49:10 PM »
21st all time in Ks. Passed Mussina tonight.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #55: April 22, 2021, 10:48:19 AM »
there are a lot of vultures circling over the Nats getting ready to swoop in on Scherzer should this team turn into a carcass.  They were talking about it on last night's ESPN broadcast, tossing out as a hypo what if the Mets went all in this year, and Mark Feinsand has an article on MLB.com about teams discussing whether Scherzer will be moved. 
https://www.mlb.com/news/max-scherzer-possible-trade-deadline-deal
The Feinsand piece talks about him being owed close to $12MM for the last 2 months of the year (~1/3 of $35MM), but I think technically, his salary for this year is deferred until the end of his deferral period, perhaps as late as 2028 if the deferral is first in, first out.  I don't really know the  CBT hit (feel free to chime in if this is your thing).  Do you get hit for the whole year if you have the contract at the end, or do you get hit just a % of the AAV for the time you have him?  If the latter, his AAV is $28.7MM per Cot's, so that is less than a $10MM hit.

Offline imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #56: April 22, 2021, 11:35:30 AM »
there are a lot of vultures circling over the Nats getting ready to swoop in on Scherzer should this team turn into a carcass.  They were talking about it on last night's ESPN broadcast, tossing out as a hypo what if the Mets went all in this year, and Mark Feinsand has an article on MLB.com about teams discussing whether Scherzer will be moved. 
https://www.mlb.com/news/max-scherzer-possible-trade-deadline-deal
The Feinsand piece talks about him being owed close to $12MM for the last 2 months of the year (~1/3 of $35MM), but I think technically, his salary for this year is deferred until the end of his deferral period, perhaps as late as 2028 if the deferral is first in, first out.  I don't really know the  CBT hit (feel free to chime in if this is your thing).  Do you get hit for the whole year if you have the contract at the end, or do you get hit just a % of the AAV for the time you have him?  If the latter, his AAV is $28.7MM per Cot's, so that is less than a $10MM hit.

interesting.  I assume it will depend on whether or not Max wants to be traded for another shot at a ring, or whether he's content to stay here (and sign an extension).

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #57: April 22, 2021, 12:06:41 PM »
he's 10/5 so can veto any trade.  The article quotes some execs and someone close to Max (Boras?) as saying he's the type of player that always wants to be in the playoffs. 

Offline Smithian

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #58: April 22, 2021, 04:02:49 PM »
If he is in Cy Young contention at deadline and Nationals are scuffling, some team would happily take him off the Nationals hands for a playoff run. Probably for a not bad haul.

Though if he is dealing, he may single handedly put Nats in an awkward no man's land of not knowing whether to go for it for to sell.

Offline imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #59: April 22, 2021, 04:31:41 PM »
Worst case scenario: we'll be .500 in July and the Lerners will publicly announce they are holding onto Max and will veto Rizzo's trade.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #60: April 22, 2021, 08:35:32 PM »
I'm trying to think of a high performing player in contract year moved at deadline who didn't stay. Only recent one that comes to mind without research is Manny Machado. The Dodgers gave up a pretty decent package of prospects who all flamed out with the Orioles. Go look at the prospects rankings on Machado trade and I would take 75% of that happily.

It's hard to say they all flamed out, and that was hardly a decent package considering that system was insanely loaded.  I remember seeing Rylan Bannon that summer.  He might have been the fifth or sixth best player on their high-A team.  And he still hit decently at AA and AAA in 2019 and just turned 25.  Pop got hurt and might or might not be fine - he had Tommy John and then got Rule 5'd and is now in the majors with Miami.  Diaz is the big disappointment. 

As for other deals like that, Zack Greinke got rented by the Angels and didn't stay; Darvish was rented by the Dodgers in 2017 and didn't stay; Toronto rented David Price for about 14 minutes; the Cubs rented Aroldis Chapman for maybe 17 minutes; Jon Lester once pitched for Oakland.  Even the Nats rented Melancon, who didn't stay. 

Offline Slateman

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #61: April 22, 2021, 09:09:39 PM »
Milwakee rented CC Sabathia

Offline welch

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #62: April 23, 2021, 06:53:29 PM »
On The Athletic, Jim Bobby Bowden suggests that Max ought to be traded because...well, he is Bowden.


Offline Slateman

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #63: April 23, 2021, 07:18:38 PM »
On The Athletic, Jim Bobby Bowden suggests that Max ought to be traded because...well, he is Bowden.


If we really are out of the playoffs, Rizzo/Lerners would be asinie to not get something for him

Offline welch

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #64: April 23, 2021, 08:07:25 PM »
If we really are out of the playoffs, Rizzo/Lerners would be asinie to not get something for him

Sign Max now. He's still the best on the staff, and there are few better starters. If he won't sign and if the Nats are far out of it, then try to get something. Teams, though, don't seem to pay much for rentals.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #65: April 26, 2021, 03:32:13 PM »
Milwakee rented CC Sabathia
Only Brantley really turned out, but the Indians got what was at the time a massive haul for Sabathia. If some team offered the Nationals something near that, we'd have to say "yes."

Offline Slateman

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #66: April 26, 2021, 04:07:57 PM »
Only Brantley really turned out, but the Indians got what was at the time a massive haul for Sabathia. If some team offered the Nationals something near that, we'd have to say "yes."
Brantley was the "throw in" of that deal too.

Also, I think if anyone was going to throw the farm at the Nats, it would be Boston.

Online bluestreak

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #67: April 26, 2021, 04:52:53 PM »
Only Brantley really turned out, but the Indians got what was at the time a massive haul for Sabathia. If some team offered the Nationals something near that, we'd have to say "yes."

But I think that was a different time. I don’t think GMs want to give up prospects anymore.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #68: April 26, 2021, 05:35:18 PM »
Brantley was the "throw in" of that deal too.

Also, I think if anyone was going to throw the farm at the Nats, it would be Boston.
but do they have a farm worth catching when they throw it at you.  They do have a couple of catching prospects, so one would be a target. It's been a long time since I looked at their system. Durren in CF, but his hype may be due to a barren system. 

Offline Smithian

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #69: April 27, 2021, 12:33:34 PM »
But I think that was a different time. I don’t think GMs want to give up prospects anymore.
You're definitely right that we're about 15 to 20 years past teams treating all but their blue chip prospects as disposable assets, but I think if Scherzer keeps dealing some ready to win team will go all in on 2021, not knowing what the future holds for the sport next season.


Online bluestreak

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #71: April 27, 2021, 01:56:40 PM »
I still think the Randy Johnson (4 year contract, 4 Cy Youngs) signing is best. But I put Scherzer and Maddux at the very close next tier.

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #72: April 27, 2021, 02:25:36 PM »
I still think the Randy Johnson (4 year contract, 4 Cy Youngs) signing is best. But I put Scherzer and Maddux at the very close next tier.

I don't think they're counting that as part of the same "era."  Big Unit got his contract in 1999 - that was forever ago.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #73: April 27, 2021, 02:37:47 PM »
4 Cy Youngs and a dove

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #74: April 27, 2021, 02:43:46 PM »
These are the $200MM pitching contracts per Cot's (ranking is their place among all players contracts)
Quote
7. Gerrit Cole, $324,000,000 (2020-28)
13. Stephen Strasburg, $245,000,000 (2020-26)
18. David Price, $217,000,000 (2016-22)
19. Clayton Kershaw, $215,000,000 (2014-20)
22. Max Scherzer, $210,000,000 (2015-21)
23. Zack Greinke, $206,500,000 (2016-21)

TBH, the only real awful won is Price, and he was effective in a World Series run.  You don't know about Cole, and you aren't 100% certain that Stras will be as awful as it looks right now.