Author Topic: Extend Scherzer?  (Read 3795 times)

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Offline Smithian

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #25: March 02, 2021, 09:39:56 AM »
I'd be willing to go a year too long on Scherzer. He's going to lose his power, but I could see him compensating and having a bounce at the end of the career.

But if I was him? With that much money? And more coming? I'd rather retire too early than a year too late.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #26: March 02, 2021, 04:15:26 PM »
I'd be willing to go a year too long on Scherzer. He's going to lose his power, but I could see him compensating and having a bounce at the end of the career.

But if I was him? With that much money? And more coming? I'd rather retire too early than a year too late.
He may be a sneaky extension candidate this spring if it would lower his competitive balance tax threshold amount.  Free up cash for Turner as well. 2 birds, one spring - :cheers:


Offline nfotiu

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #28: March 31, 2021, 10:07:25 PM »
No discussions so far:

https://www.masnsports.com/nationals-buzz/2021/03/scherzer-nats-still-not-talking-contract-ahead-of-opening-day.html

I would be pretty shocked if he signed an extension now.   I'd guess he'd see how he feels and how the team is.  If he decides he still wants to play, and team is looking good, they'll work something out.

Offline USF_Football

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #29: March 31, 2021, 10:12:06 PM »
NOOOOOOOOO. Love him... but he's done.

Offline imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #30: March 31, 2021, 10:25:05 PM »
Scherzer has Zimm status. If he wants to pitch another year we’ll sign him (unless it's plainly obvious he's done). Look at the stats from the article:

Quote
Scherzer is 84-43 with a 2.80 ERA and 1,463 strikeouts in 170 starts and 1,118 innings over his first six seasons with the Nationals. He has two Cy Young Awards, been named an All-Star every season, won a World Series championship, thrown two no-hitters and a 20-strikeout game, and has led the league numerous times in many different statistical categories during his time in D.C.

Incredible.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #31: March 31, 2021, 10:42:35 PM »
I don't see why we wouldn't keep him on 1 or 2 year contracts if he wants to stay.  We aren't going to find 5 better starting pitchers than a 37 or 38 you Max Scherzer.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #32: April 01, 2021, 10:41:06 AM »
I thought there was a chance they'd extend both Turner and Scherzer this spring to lower Max's CBT hit for this year, give him a little more money now, and create enough CBT room to sign Turner now without too much compromising room for Soto after this year.  I went through the numbers either up thread here or in the Turner contract thread. Moot now.

yes.  My thought was you sign him for two more years and you lower  the CBT hit this year, to create more room to negotiate an extension for Turner or possibly Soto. 

Turner is at something like $13MM this year, and the Nats have about $16MM room below the first CBT threshold, using the more conservative Cot's estimate rather than the others that are floating around. A reasonable extension offer for him might be 6 or 7 years at $25MM AAV.  Assuming the Nats want to leave close to $10MM room for deadline deals, other in-season moves, and bonuses, lowering Max's CBT amount from $28.7MM to $20MM via an extension, do that sort of extension and you could extend Turner at  $25MM while leaving $12MM+ in CBT room. 

It would require someone who is smarter about the CBT calculation to check my math, above.  Basically, rip up the last year of Max's contract at $35MM, give him a new contract for 2021-2023 for $60MM, payable over 2021-2016 at $10MM a year.  Including the $15MM signing bonus from his first contract payable in 2021 and deferred money for 2019 and 2020, that gives him an income stream of $25M per year from 2021-2026, and $5MM in 2027.  This gets way more complicated if the deferral is impacted by the 60 game season.

Main point, if you can lower Max's CBT hit by giving him an extension this year, you may generate room to extend Turner this year at a reasonable AAV. 

I think Scherzer is very solid for the next year.  While some of his numbers were off last year, that was still not far from an All Star season (13th in fWAR among NL starters with 30 innings, 9th in K/9, 15th in innings, middle of the pack ERA but top 1/4 xFIP). No loss of velocity, but a little bump in his walk rate and an elevated HR/FB with fewer pulled balls and more balls in the air.  At worst, he's the 3rd head of a triple headed monster.

Offline imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #33: April 16, 2021, 10:01:46 PM »
Bump

Offline RobDibblesGhost

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #34: April 17, 2021, 11:20:22 PM »
So...is Scherzer going to the HOF? I’d like to think he’ll be the first player to be enshrined in Cooperstown representing the Nats but I’m curious as to what others think.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #35: April 17, 2021, 11:36:53 PM »
Yes. Possibly on the first ballot.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #36: April 17, 2021, 11:57:20 PM »
he's almost a lock.  I am not sure 1s ballot, but he's a lock.

Offline GataNats

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #37: April 18, 2021, 03:10:36 AM »
First ballot lock if he never pitches another game

Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #38: April 18, 2021, 07:41:15 AM »
No way. Don’t waste the money

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #39: April 18, 2021, 08:12:21 AM »
No way. Don’t waste the money
Based on the results this year I can see him getting $10 million. Seems reasonable to me. It’s not going to be another 7 years.

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #40: April 18, 2021, 09:23:39 AM »
He’ll get more than 10 per, at least for next year.

Offline imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #41: April 18, 2021, 09:45:54 AM »
The cost of a win for a starting pitcher is about what, $6 million now?  Max is arguably a 3-4 WAR pitcher, so yeah, he's going to get a lot more than $10 million.


Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #42: April 18, 2021, 09:49:55 AM »
The cost of a win for a starting pitcher is about what, $6 million now?  Max is arguably a 3-4 WAR pitcher, so yeah, he's going to get a lot more than $10 million.
Yeah, but he will be what, 38?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #43: April 18, 2021, 10:06:41 AM »
Yeah, but he will be what, 38?
37. Charlie Morton is one year older and got a 1 year, $15MM contract for 2021.  Max will not get lower.  I think there's an outside chance that, if the system is similar to the one they have now, they make a qualifying offer at $19MM, he takes it, then they negotiate a 2 year deal with an option with an AAV in the $15MM - $20MM range.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #44: April 18, 2021, 10:12:30 AM »
yu darvish is another contract to consider.  Darvish is a year younger than Max, and has 2 more years after this at $19MM and $18MM.  Darvish also has had UCL surgery 6 years ago and has had further arm injuries

Offline imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #45: April 18, 2021, 10:19:42 AM »
37. Charlie Morton is one year older and got a 1 year, $15MM contract for 2021.  Max will not get lower.  I think there's an outside chance that, if the system is similar to the one they have now, they make a qualifying offer at $19MM, he takes it, then they negotiate a 2 year deal with an option with an AAV in the $15MM - $20MM range.

that sounds fair.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #46: April 18, 2021, 10:29:25 AM »
37. Charlie Morton is one year older and got a 1 year, $15MM contract for 2021.  Max will not get lower.  I think there's an outside chance that, if the system is similar to the one they have now, they make a qualifying offer at $19MM, he takes it, then they negotiate a 2 year deal with an option with an AAV in the $15MM - $20MM range.
That will be a mistake.  Charlie Morton does not look like he will earn that this year. And Max has been a power pitcher.  Rather see them sign someone like JA Haap for much cheaper.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #47: April 18, 2021, 10:43:13 AM »
Anyway Max will be raking in all that deferred money so he should give us a discount.

Offline welch

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #48: April 19, 2021, 11:46:10 AM »
Of course the Nats should extend Max. He still throws hard, still has breaking pitches to stun a batter. Of the Big Three, Max is the most trustworthy.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #49: April 19, 2021, 12:25:00 PM »
How long do we think Scherzer will be effective for? If we don't think at least 2023, let's move him.

I'm in the unfortunate camp that the 2022 season will be a labor apocalypse and that we shouldn't make any moves that don't have an eye toward 2023. If the Nats are scuffling and not serious playoff contenders at deadline, I'm ready to move anything that isn't bolted down. I'm not certain we could grab a Top 100 prospect for any pitcher in his contract year, but if he is dealing then some team who thinks they're window is open will go hard for a pitcher who can win in the postseason.