Author Topic: Extend Scherzer?  (Read 555 times)

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Online Smithian

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #25: March 02, 2021, 09:39:56 AM »
I'd be willing to go a year too long on Scherzer. He's going to lose his power, but I could see him compensating and having a bounce at the end of the career.

But if I was him? With that much money? And more coming? I'd rather retire too early than a year too late.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #26: March 02, 2021, 04:15:26 PM »
I'd be willing to go a year too long on Scherzer. He's going to lose his power, but I could see him compensating and having a bounce at the end of the career.

But if I was him? With that much money? And more coming? I'd rather retire too early than a year too late.
He may be a sneaky extension candidate this spring if it would lower his competitive balance tax threshold amount.  Free up cash for Turner as well. 2 birds, one spring - :cheers:


Offline nfotiu

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #28: March 31, 2021, 10:07:25 PM »
No discussions so far:

https://www.masnsports.com/nationals-buzz/2021/03/scherzer-nats-still-not-talking-contract-ahead-of-opening-day.html

I would be pretty shocked if he signed an extension now.   I'd guess he'd see how he feels and how the team is.  If he decides he still wants to play, and team is looking good, they'll work something out.

Offline USF_Football

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #29: March 31, 2021, 10:12:06 PM »
NOOOOOOOOO. Love him... but he's done.

Offline imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #30: March 31, 2021, 10:25:05 PM »
Scherzer has Zimm status. If he wants to pitch another year we’ll sign him (unless it's plainly obvious he's done). Look at the stats from the article:

Quote
Scherzer is 84-43 with a 2.80 ERA and 1,463 strikeouts in 170 starts and 1,118 innings over his first six seasons with the Nationals. He has two Cy Young Awards, been named an All-Star every season, won a World Series championship, thrown two no-hitters and a 20-strikeout game, and has led the league numerous times in many different statistical categories during his time in D.C.

Incredible.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #31: March 31, 2021, 10:42:35 PM »
I don't see why we wouldn't keep him on 1 or 2 year contracts if he wants to stay.  We aren't going to find 5 better starting pitchers than a 37 or 38 you Max Scherzer.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #32: April 01, 2021, 10:41:06 AM »
I thought there was a chance they'd extend both Turner and Scherzer this spring to lower Max's CBT hit for this year, give him a little more money now, and create enough CBT room to sign Turner now without too much compromising room for Soto after this year.  I went through the numbers either up thread here or in the Turner contract thread. Moot now.

yes.  My thought was you sign him for two more years and you lower  the CBT hit this year, to create more room to negotiate an extension for Turner or possibly Soto. 

Turner is at something like $13MM this year, and the Nats have about $16MM room below the first CBT threshold, using the more conservative Cot's estimate rather than the others that are floating around. A reasonable extension offer for him might be 6 or 7 years at $25MM AAV.  Assuming the Nats want to leave close to $10MM room for deadline deals, other in-season moves, and bonuses, lowering Max's CBT amount from $28.7MM to $20MM via an extension, do that sort of extension and you could extend Turner at  $25MM while leaving $12MM+ in CBT room. 

It would require someone who is smarter about the CBT calculation to check my math, above.  Basically, rip up the last year of Max's contract at $35MM, give him a new contract for 2021-2023 for $60MM, payable over 2021-2016 at $10MM a year.  Including the $15MM signing bonus from his first contract payable in 2021 and deferred money for 2019 and 2020, that gives him an income stream of $25M per year from 2021-2026, and $5MM in 2027.  This gets way more complicated if the deferral is impacted by the 60 game season.

Main point, if you can lower Max's CBT hit by giving him an extension this year, you may generate room to extend Turner this year at a reasonable AAV. 

I think Scherzer is very solid for the next year.  While some of his numbers were off last year, that was still not far from an All Star season (13th in fWAR among NL starters with 30 innings, 9th in K/9, 15th in innings, middle of the pack ERA but top 1/4 xFIP). No loss of velocity, but a little bump in his walk rate and an elevated HR/FB with fewer pulled balls and more balls in the air.  At worst, he's the 3rd head of a triple headed monster.