Author Topic: Extend Scherzer?  (Read 2861 times)

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Offline imref

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Extend Scherzer?
« Topic Start: February 19, 2021, 02:15:17 PM »
Max is in the last year of his deal. That seven years went by pretty quick.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #1: February 19, 2021, 02:52:00 PM »
Cash in pocket, he's getting $15MM this year from his signing bonus, then, over the 7years, he's getting the same amount, which is the $35MMper year he was due from 2019-21. His Cbt hit this year is 28.7MM. So ... could the Nats offer him something that takes the "$35MM" for 2021, add say another $25 million, and sign a 3 year deal for 2021-23, lower the cbt hit, and maybe structure it so he gets an extra 10 million over his 15 for the next 6 years?  The math isn't quite right, but some sort of similar structure?

I think the cash money stream would be 6x$25 = $150, vs. a cash stream of 8x$15=$120, so you could see how Scherzer might like it.  If he wants  just $15 a year, you structure it so it all comes later..  For the Nats, would the CBT hit become $20MM a year for 2021-23, rather than $28.7 for this year?

Does somebody know the rules for restrutures that wipe a year out of a long term deaal and extend?

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #2: February 19, 2021, 03:08:02 PM »
Isn't he getting to the year by year phase of his career.   Hopefully Boras would let him sign a 1 or 2 year deal if he's wanting to stay.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #3: February 19, 2021, 03:15:38 PM »
Isn't he getting to the year by year phase of his career.   Hopefully Boras would let him sign a 1 or 2 year deal if he's wanting to stay.
I'm going off Cot's.  If I read it right, his deal at this point is $15MM a year for 2021-2028.  In the 2019-21 portion of the contract, he gets $15MM a year from his $50MM signing bonus, while his $35MM a year for 2019-21 is deferred no interest to 2022-2028 at $15MM a year.  I didn't read it close enough to check whether anything is due this year from the salaries his first 4 years.

Edit - checking cot's, essentially the way the deal is structured I think he spread the $210 MM from 2015-2021 out as $15MM a year from 2015-28 (14 years).  On paper, he got a $50MM signing bonus ($5MM up front, $15MM/yr for 2019-21), and salaries of $10M, then 3 years of $15MM, then 3 years of $35MM.  The last 3 years are all deferred to $15M a year for 2022-28.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/washington-nationals/

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #4: February 19, 2021, 03:43:46 PM »
The cap number next year is zero, correct?

Offline imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #5: February 19, 2021, 04:16:43 PM »
I imagine that the team is in a wait and see mode with Max.  He's not going to get any offer unless he pitches effectively at least in the first half of 2021, then maybe they do something by the ASB to extend him a couple of more years. He seems to like it here and at this point in his career, I doubt he's chasing a paycheck.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #6: February 19, 2021, 04:21:32 PM »
The cap number next year is zero, correct?
Yes. There will not be MLB in 2022.

Online varoadking

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #7: February 19, 2021, 04:32:14 PM »

He's trying to unload his NOVA house (that he's marked up $5MM+/- from when he bought it) and has already bought another house in Florida.  I think he's ready to ride off into the sunset...

Offline imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #8: February 19, 2021, 04:33:10 PM »
Yes. There will not be MLB in 2022.

that may very well be accurate given the low likelihood of a CBA

Offline DCFan

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #9: February 19, 2021, 04:36:02 PM »
He's trying to unload his NOVA house (that he's marked up $5MM+/- from when he bought it) and has already bought another house in Florida.  I think he's ready to ride off into the sunset...

That’s some good intel. We should enjoy his last season and prepare his spot on the ring of honor.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #10: February 19, 2021, 04:36:27 PM »
He's trying to unload his NOVA house (that he's marked up $5MM+/- from when he bought it) and has already bought another house in Florida.  I think he's ready to ride off into the sunset...
One year deals. Start with the Braves. Then Tampa. Then the Marlins.

Online varoadking

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #11: February 19, 2021, 05:05:14 PM »
One year deals. Start with the Braves. Then Tampa. Then the Marlins.

Probably the other way around...his new house is close to WPB, IIRC...

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #12: February 19, 2021, 06:06:30 PM »
Max had a hell of a run in Washington. No matter where he plays next year, I know I'll be telling Max Scherzer stories for the rest of my life.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #13: February 19, 2021, 08:50:06 PM »
Probably the other way around...his new house is close to WPB, IIRC...
Has to work his way there slow.

Offline imref

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #14: February 19, 2021, 10:15:55 PM »
Max had a hell of a run in Washington. No matter where he plays next year, I know I'll be telling Max Scherzer stories for the rest of my life.

He has a space waiting for him in the ring.

Offline Mathguy

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #15: February 20, 2021, 05:59:16 AM »
Max likes pitching with Strasburg.  What the Nats do with Soto may be a factor as well.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #16: February 20, 2021, 10:55:48 AM »
The cap number next year is zero, correct?
yes.  My thought was you sign him for two more years and you lower  the CBT hit this year, to create more room to negotiate an extension for Turner or possibly Soto. 

Turner is at something like $13MM this year, and the Nats have about $16MM room below the first CBT threshold, using the more conservative Cot's estimate rather than the others that are floating around. A reasonable extension offer for him might be 6 or 7 years at $25MM AAV.  Assuming the Nats want to leave close to $10MM room for deadline deals, other in-season moves, and bonuses, lowering Max's CBT amount from $28.7MM to $20MM via an extension, do that sort of extension and you could extend Turner at  $25MM while leaving $12MM+ in CBT room. 

It would require someone who is smarter about the CBT calculation to check my math, above.  Basically, rip up the last year of Max's contract at $35MM, give him a new contract for 2021-2023 for $60MM, payable over 2021-2016 at $10MM a year.  Including the $15MM signing bonus from his first contract payable in 2021 and deferred money for 2019 and 2020, that gives him an income stream of $25M per year from 2021-2026, and $5MM in 2027.  This gets way more complicated if the deferral is impacted by the 60 game season.

Main point, if you can lower Max's CBT hit by giving him an extension this year, you may generate room to extend Turner this year at a reasonable AAV. 

I think Scherzer is very solid for the next year.  While some of his numbers were off last year, that was still not far from an All Star season (13th in fWAR among NL starters with 30 innings, 9th in K/9, 15th in innings, middle of the pack ERA but top 1/4 xFIP). No loss of velocity, but a little bump in his walk rate and an elevated HR/FB with fewer pulled balls and more balls in the air.  At worst, he's the 3rd head of a triple headed monster.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #17: February 20, 2021, 11:18:47 AM »
He's trying to unload his NOVA house (that he's marked up $5MM+/- from when he bought it) and has already bought another house in Florida.  I think he's ready to ride off into the sunset...
his oldest turns 4 this November. They may be figuring that they are getting to the point they need to think about keeping the kids in one spot for September to June for pre-school / K/ grade school rather than moving them around with nanny care according to Max's schedule. I don't think they made their off-season home in McLean, and its probably more than Max needs even if he extends here.  I could see them just renting up here if the home sells and he's back for another year or two.

Offline skippy1999

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #18: February 22, 2021, 04:50:32 PM »
Max is in the last year of his deal. That seven years went by pretty quick.
oh wow did it ever!!!! Some of the best money ever spent in baseball on that guy, what a great National he has been.

Online Slateman

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #19: February 22, 2021, 06:23:18 PM »
Not sure why we're spending our Noah Syndergaard money on a Max Scherzer extension

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #20: February 22, 2021, 11:18:25 PM »
I don't expect Max to be a #1 caliber guy in 2022, but he could fit nicely into the #4 vet role Anibal and now Lester have filled.  If Stras and Corbin both return to form this year, Ross proves steady, and some young guys progress in the minors, then extending Max may be enough for the 2022 rotation.  Otherwise, with the way Rizzo values pitching, we'll have to go get a frontline caliber guy.

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #21: February 23, 2021, 04:58:33 PM »
I don't see much hope in Ross right now. He hasn't be able to make the grind of a full season yet. And missing 2020 even tho it was a short season doesn't help the lack of endurance.

I hope to be wrong of course but at this point has Ross/Fedde/Voth combined shown the ability to start 30 and be competitive in the league?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #22: February 23, 2021, 05:29:30 PM »
I don't see much hope in Ross right now. He hasn't be able to make the grind of a full season yet. And missing 2020 even tho it was a short season doesn't help the lack of endurance.

I hope to be wrong of course but at this point has Ross/Fedde/Voth combined shown the ability to start 30 and be competitive in the league?
actually, wasn't it those 3 plus Hellickson in 2019?

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #23: February 23, 2021, 06:15:02 PM »
actually, wasn't it those 3 plus Hellickson in 2019?

Yes Hellickson made 8 starts. Fedde made the most between the 4 with 12 starts. Ross = 9 Voth =  8

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/WSN/2019-pitching.shtml

If you want to take a look

Ross was definetly better as a starter, Fedde didn't have much change between SP/RP. Small samples

Online GburgNatsFan

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Re: Extend Scherzer?
« Reply #24: February 23, 2021, 07:54:44 PM »
Like
Not sure why we're spending our Noah Syndergaard money on a Max Scherzer extension