Author Topic: 2021 NL East (Read 12913 times)

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #275:** July 19, 2021, 11:00:19 PM »

Quote from: bluestreak on July 19, 2021, 10:47:14 PM

Nats wiped out the entire positive run differential or the Marlins in one game.

Shows how meaningless a stat that is.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #276:** July 19, 2021, 11:05:17 PM »

Reds tie it up into the bottom of the ninth. On to extra. Bring on the runners.

imref · « **Reply #277:** July 20, 2021, 12:32:31 AM »

Mets win 15-11 in 11

bluestreak · « **Reply #278:** July 20, 2021, 01:33:21 AM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on July 19, 2021, 11:00:19 PM

Shows how meaningless a stat that is.

In terms of knowing how good a team is, run differential is probably more meaningful than win-loss record. And yes, I know wins are how we determine who goes to playoffs. But still, for terms of team strength, I’d put my money of run differential.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #279:** July 20, 2021, 07:34:34 AM »

Quote from: bluestreak on July 20, 2021, 01:33:21 AM

In terms of knowing how good a team is, run differential is probably more meaningful than win-loss record. And yes, I know wins are how we determine who goes to playoffs. But still, for terms of team strength, I’d put my money of run differential.

I’m not sure since there always seem to be a couple of outliers every year. If two teams have the same records would you really bet on one because they scored ten more runs over a year. Lots of factors go into that. One just might have punted on more games earlier. Or had injuries.

bluestreak · « **Reply #280:** July 20, 2021, 08:43:34 AM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on July 20, 2021, 07:34:34 AM

I’m not sure since there always seem to be a couple of outliers every year. If two teams have the same records would you really bet on one because they scored ten more runs over a year. Lots of factors go into that. One just might have punted on more games earlier. Or had injuries.

Look at the NL West. Giants have a better record. Dodgers have a better run differential. Who are you putting your actual money on if they play each other. Who would you bet on to win that division?
Look at the NL East. Braves and Nats have similar records, but very different run differentials. Who (before Acuña injury) would you bet on if they played?

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #281:** July 20, 2021, 10:56:12 AM »

Quote from: bluestreak on July 20, 2021, 08:43:34 AM

Look at the NL West. Giants have a better record. Dodgers have a better run differential. Who are you putting your actual money on if they play each other. Who would you bet on to win that division?
Look at the NL East. Braves and Nats have similar records, but very different run differentials. Who (before Acuña injury) would you bet on if they played?

I think of run differential as a backwards-looking stat. It usually coincides with record to date. That's the way the Pythagorean record tends to work. I think it is less good at predicting the future strength head-to-head.

KnorrForYourMoney · « **Reply #282:** July 22, 2021, 08:40:57 AM »

Out of curiosity, I started looking back at recent playoff series where one team had a better run diff and the other had a better W-L. Apparently pytha/run diff is no better at predicting series outcomes than overall W-L record.

If I had to guess, it might have something to do with the importance of a good bullpen in the postseason, which is also what tends to help teams overperform relative to their run differential.

HondoKillebrew · « **Reply #283:** July 23, 2021, 12:54:01 PM »

Mets acquire Rich Hill from Tampa.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #284:** July 23, 2021, 02:27:51 PM »

Quote from: HondoKillebrew on July 23, 2021, 12:54:01 PM

Mets acquire Rich Hill from Tampa.

3D chess. Hill is good. This article notes that Patino was just called up and Archer is coming back soon.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mets-trade-for-rich-hill-with-rays
As for Hill, yes, he'll take a rotation slot, but he is going to leave 4 innings for the pen.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #285:** July 23, 2021, 02:32:12 PM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on July 23, 2021, 02:27:51 PM

3D chess. Hill is good. This article notes that Patino was just called up and Archer is coming back soon.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mets-trade-for-rich-hill-with-rays
As for Hill, yes, he'll take a rotation slot, but he is going to leave 4 innings for the pen.

His recent starts have been terrible. How many trades does TB lose?

Slateman · « **Reply #286:** July 23, 2021, 02:35:38 PM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on July 23, 2021, 02:32:12 PM

His recent starts have been terrible. How many trades does TB lose?

Only when they trade with the Nats

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #287:** July 30, 2021, 06:46:59 PM »

https://amp.northjersey.com/5437821001

DeGrom out for a while. Should have been buyers.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #288:** July 31, 2021, 01:16:17 PM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on July 30, 2021, 06:46:59 PM

https://amp.northjersey.com/5437821001

DeGrom out for a while. Should have been buyers.

Javy Baez and Trevor Williams are quality adds. Lindor and Baez in the same infield will make for some web gems.

for fun, posting the NL East standings as of today:

Mess 54-48 - GB
Philthies 51-52 3.5
Barves 51-53 4
Nats 48-55 6.5
Fish 44-59 10.5

Slateman · « **Reply #289:** July 31, 2021, 02:40:56 PM »

Nats gonna win the East

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #290:** July 31, 2021, 04:13:55 PM »

Quote from: Slateman on July 31, 2021, 02:40:56 PM

Nats gonna win the East

I think it was the NYY in 2016 that broke up the team, trading Andrew Miller, Aroldis, maybe some others at the deadline, then brought up Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, and a few others and either made the wild card or just missed. Judge was not good, but Sanchez almost won ROTY with a super streak. Hoping for the same out of Garcia.

Slateman · « **Reply #291:** July 31, 2021, 05:15:19 PM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on July 31, 2021, 04:13:55 PM

I think it was the NYY in 2016 that broke up the team, trading Andrew Miller, Aroldis, maybe some others at the deadline, then brought up Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, and a few others and either made the wild card or just missed. Judge was not good, but Sanchez almost won ROTY with a super streak. Hoping for the same out of Garcia.

Garcia and Kieboom gonna hit.
Ross gonna stay healthy and deal.
Corbin gonna figure it out
Gray and Cavalli gonna come up and shove
Strasburg gonna have a miracle recovery and be our closer

freaking book it

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #292:** July 31, 2021, 06:38:18 PM »

Quote from: Slateman on July 31, 2021, 05:15:19 PM

Garcia and Kieboom gonna hit.
Ross gonna stay healthy and deal.
Corbin gonna figure it out
Gray and Cavalli gonna come up and shove
Strasburg gonna have a miracle recovery and be our closer

freaking book it

Kolobsits gonna punch out the Barves. When he's arrested, Max will prove his loyalty by bailing him out

welch · « **Reply #293:** August 01, 2021, 10:22:32 PM »

Next 13 games against Phillies, Braves, Mets, and Barves again. Three of those teams are under .500 and the Mets are spiraling.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #294:** August 01, 2021, 10:40:27 PM »

Quote from: welch on August 01, 2021, 10:22:32 PM

Next 13 games against Phillies, Braves, Mets, and Barves again. Three of those teams are under .500 and the Mets are spiraling.

By my calculations the Nats are 9-19 since their hot streak in June. Is that spiraling? Or crashing and burning?

imref · « **Reply #295:** August 01, 2021, 11:27:59 PM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on August 01, 2021, 10:40:27 PM

By my calculations the Nats are 9-19 since their hot streak in June. Is that spiraling? Or crashing and burning?

We’re pacing ourselves.

Slateman · « **Reply #296:** August 02, 2021, 07:25:07 AM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on August 01, 2021, 10:40:27 PM

By my calculations the Nats are 9-19 since their hot streak in June. Is that spiraling? Or crashing and burning?

Cus we got rid of the dead weight

rileyn · « **Reply #297:** August 08, 2021, 08:13:38 AM »

We are the reason Philly is surging, and that sucks. 4 last inning comeback wins for them over us in the last 2 series.

Mattionals · « **Reply #298:** August 08, 2021, 10:22:09 PM »

Quote from: rileyn on August 08, 2021, 08:13:38 AM

We are the reason Philly is surging, and that sucks. 4 last inning comeback wins for them over us in the last 2 series.

The Phillies are about to play the Dodgers. Methinks they are going to fall back to earth again. We play the Mess, which honestly we might fair well against the spiraling Mets. Barves play the Reds, which could be difficult for the Barves.

The NL East is a dumpster fire of a division.

Slateman · « **Reply #299:** August 08, 2021, 10:27:52 PM »

Quote from: Mattionals on August 08, 2021, 10:22:09 PM

The Phillies are about to play the Dodgers. Methinks they are going to fall back to earth again. We play the Mess, which honestly we might fair well against the spiraling Mets. Barves play the Reds, which could be difficult for the Barves.

The NL East is a dumpster fire of a division.

The funny thing is that the Phillies and Mets are a lot like the Nats were on their run. Both teams have suspect pens and three very good starting pitchers (assuming deGrom is healthy). Both have lineups that can hit.