Author Topic: 2021 NL East  (Read 3912 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 19878
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #275: July 19, 2021, 11:00:19 PM »
Nats wiped out the entire positive run differential or the Marlins in one game.
Shows how meaningless a stat that is.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 19878
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #276: July 19, 2021, 11:05:17 PM »
Reds tie it up into the bottom of the ninth. On to extra. Bring on the runners.

Offline imref

  • Posts: 35085
  • Redemption
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #277: July 20, 2021, 12:32:31 AM »
Mets win 15-11 in 11 :(

Offline bluestreak

  • Posts: 10843
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #278: July 20, 2021, 01:33:21 AM »
Shows how meaningless a stat that is.

In terms of knowing how good a team is, run differential is probably more meaningful than win-loss record. And yes, I know wins are how we determine who goes to playoffs. But still, for terms of team strength, I’d put my money of run differential.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 19878
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #279: July 20, 2021, 07:34:34 AM »
In terms of knowing how good a team is, run differential is probably more meaningful than win-loss record. And yes, I know wins are how we determine who goes to playoffs. But still, for terms of team strength, I’d put my money of run differential.
I’m not sure since there always seem to be a couple of outliers every year.  If two teams have the same records would you really bet on one because they scored ten more runs over a year. Lots of factors go into that. One just might have punted on more games earlier. Or had injuries.

Offline bluestreak

  • Posts: 10843
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #280: July 20, 2021, 08:43:34 AM »
I’m not sure since there always seem to be a couple of outliers every year.  If two teams have the same records would you really bet on one because they scored ten more runs over a year. Lots of factors go into that. One just might have punted on more games earlier. Or had injuries.

Look at the NL West. Giants have a better record. Dodgers have a better run differential. Who are you putting your actual money on if they play each other. Who would you bet on to win that division?
Look at the NL East. Braves and Nats have similar records, but very different run differentials. Who (before Acuña injury) would you bet on if they played?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 31907
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #281: July 20, 2021, 10:56:12 AM »
Look at the NL West. Giants have a better record. Dodgers have a better run differential. Who are you putting your actual money on if they play each other. Who would you bet on to win that division?
Look at the NL East. Braves and Nats have similar records, but very different run differentials. Who (before Acuña injury) would you bet on if they played?
I think of run differential as a backwards-looking stat.  It usually coincides with record to date.  That's the way the Pythagorean record tends to work. I think it is less good at predicting the future strength head-to-head. 

Offline KnorrForYourMoney

  • Posts: 16062
  • pissy DC sports fan
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #282: July 22, 2021, 08:40:57 AM »
Out of curiosity, I started looking back at recent playoff series where one team had a better run diff and the other had a better W-L.  Apparently pytha/run diff is no better at predicting series outcomes than overall W-L record.

If I had to guess, it might have something to do with the importance of a good bullpen in the postseason, which is also what tends to help teams overperform relative to their run differential.

Offline HondoKillebrew

  • Posts: 624
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #283: Yesterday at 12:54:01 PM »
Mets acquire Rich Hill from Tampa.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 31907
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #284: Yesterday at 02:27:51 PM »
Mets acquire Rich Hill from Tampa.
3D chess.  Hill is good.  This article notes that Patino was just called up and Archer is coming back soon.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mets-trade-for-rich-hill-with-rays
As for Hill, yes, he'll take a rotation slot, but he is going to leave 4 innings for the pen. 

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 19878
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #285: Yesterday at 02:32:12 PM »
3D chess.  Hill is good.  This article notes that Patino was just called up and Archer is coming back soon.
https://www.mlb.com/news/mets-trade-for-rich-hill-with-rays
As for Hill, yes, he'll take a rotation slot, but he is going to leave 4 innings for the pen.
His recent starts have been terrible.  How many trades does TB lose?

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 58129
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #286: Yesterday at 02:35:38 PM »
His recent starts have been terrible.  How many trades does TB lose?
Only when they trade with the Nats