Message #2193637

[JCA-CrystalCity]

PECOTA weighs in, and it doesn't like the Barves.

National League East

Mets: 96-66 (77% odds to win division)
Nationals: 85-77 (10%)
Phillies: 83-79 (7%)
Braves: 82-80 (5%)
Marlins: 68-94 (0%)
Meet the NL East champion Mets. The projections think the Mets will rise to the top of the division for the first time since 2015 after their blockbuster trade for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco and their signings of James McCann and more. Not only that, PECOTA has the Mets running away with the East, with as big a margin over their next-closest rival (11 wins) as any division in baseball.

But the shocker here is the Braves. The three-time defending division champs are projected to finish … fourth? Even with reigning NL MVP Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuña Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Mike Soroka? That's interesting to say the least. PECOTA also sees a bounceback for the Nationals behind superstars Juan Soto and Max Scherzer, a fall back to Earth for the 2020 playoff upstart Marlins, and the Phillies … still being stuck in the middle.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-pecota-projections-breakdown?partnerId=zh-20210210-156906-MLB&qid=1026&bt_ee=LWEEI8qC%2F3dMOHf3M2ABPSSoEafbtuZXRMWC9JO5NG4p3Hm7e%2F5haUKU92Rz3Ui0&bt_ts=1612960517472