Author Topic: 2021 NL East  (Read 346 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 30214
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
2021 NL East
« Topic Start: February 10, 2021, 09:54:32 AM »
Fangraphs playoff odds article:

Quote
We Love the Mets
Sometimes it feels like FanGraphs and the Mets are in an on-again, off-again relationship. We laugh at their overall Metsiness, and we also cover their attempts at team-building more than we maybe should. They’re just so darn interesting, whether their planning works or not.

This year, we project that the planning will work. They aren’t head and shoulders ahead of Atlanta, but both teams look like the class of the National League East. The Nationals have too many holes (second base, rotation depth, and infield corners) for Juan Soto to carry them. The Phillies have a Nats-esque offense with a worse pitching staff. The Marlins had a fun run in 2020, but I didn’t need a projection system to tell me they’ll struggle to replicate that success this year.

The Mets aren’t without issues. They’re still defensively deficient — we have Dominic Smith getting 500 plate appearances in left field, Brandon Nimmo with nearly 500 in center, and J.D. Davis getting most of the time at third base, which is rough to say the least. They’ll hit enough to make up for it, though, and their rotation is both star-laden and deep. When we’ve poked fun at the Mets for not using their financial resources to go from intriguing to dominant, this is the kind of team we envisioned. It would be a shock if they don’t make the playoffs this year despite a deep division and strong Wild Card opposition.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seven-takeaways-from-our-playoff-odds/

and the odds themselves
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Nats 8% for the division, 25% for the playoffs.  Mets 55%/ 82%, Barves 35% / 69%.  Not nice.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 56143
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #1: February 10, 2021, 10:04:52 AM »
Fangraphs playoff odds article:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seven-takeaways-from-our-playoff-odds/

and the odds themselves
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Nats 8% for the division, 25% for the playoffs.  Mets 55%/ 82%, Barves 35% / 69%.  Not nice.
Yea, well, these are the consequences when your owners insist on large amounts of deferred money, you can't develop pitching, and you overpay to keep an often injured starter

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 30214
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #2: February 10, 2021, 10:12:33 AM »
Yea, well, these are the consequences when your owners insist on large amounts of deferred money, you can't develop pitching, and you overpay to keep an often injured starter
so what you are saying is, if we were going to land one guy after 2019 on a $35MM AAV contract, it was Rendon and not Stras, and that had Rizzo / Lerners read the market, they could have filled out the rotation with Charlie Mortons in the mid-teens rather than Strasburgs in the upper 20  and 30s.

Online Elvir Ovcina

  • Posts: 3914
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #3: February 10, 2021, 01:36:26 PM »
Yea, well, these are the consequences when you can't develop pitching,  you can't develop pitching, and  you can't develop pitching.

Tidied, as those are all mostly outgrowths of the same embarrassing issue.

Offline Greg_SRT

  • Posts: 3652
  • Getting 2019 Vibes
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #4: February 10, 2021, 04:10:07 PM »
Fangraphs playoff odds article:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seven-takeaways-from-our-playoff-odds/

and the odds themselves
https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

Nats 8% for the division, 25% for the playoffs.  Mets 55%/ 82%, Barves 35% / 69%.  Not nice.

I remember a time when odds were at less than 1%

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 30214
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #5: February 10, 2021, 05:56:22 PM »
PECOTA weighs in, and it doesn't like the Barves.

Quote
National League East

Mets: 96-66 (77% odds to win division)
Nationals: 85-77 (10%)
Phillies: 83-79 (7%)
Braves: 82-80 (5%)
Marlins: 68-94 (0%)
Meet the NL East champion Mets. The projections think the Mets will rise to the top of the division for the first time since 2015 after their blockbuster trade for Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco and their signings of James McCann and more. Not only that, PECOTA has the Mets running away with the East, with as big a margin over their next-closest rival (11 wins) as any division in baseball.

But the shocker here is the Braves. The three-time defending division champs are projected to finish … fourth? Even with reigning NL MVP Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuña Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Mike Soroka? That's interesting to say the least. PECOTA also sees a bounceback for the Nationals behind superstars Juan Soto and Max Scherzer, a fall back to Earth for the 2020 playoff upstart Marlins, and the Phillies … still being stuck in the middle.
https://www.mlb.com/news/2021-pecota-projections-breakdown?partnerId=zh-20210210-156906-MLB&qid=1026&bt_ee=LWEEI8qC%2F3dMOHf3M2ABPSSoEafbtuZXRMWC9JO5NG4p3Hm7e%2F5haUKU92Rz3Ui0&bt_ts=1612960517472

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 18426

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 18426
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #7: February 10, 2021, 06:18:39 PM »
Yea, well, these are the consequences when your owners insist on large amounts of deferred money, you can't develop pitching, and you overpay to keep an often injured starter
It’s ok. The Nats have a recent world championship and no one else has one since the Phillies in 2008. The Mets came close in 2015. 

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 56143
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #8: February 10, 2021, 09:39:59 PM »
Predicting 96 wins for the Mets is a bit crazy. We know they improved but come on. 
The Mets probably have the best lineup in the division, still have the best pitcher in baseball, are getting Stroman and Syndergaard back, and have shored up the rest of their rotation and bullpen.

96 might be bullish, but on paper, that's a good team that can grab 90+ wins in that division.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 18426
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #9: February 11, 2021, 07:35:52 AM »
The Mets probably have the best lineup in the division, still have the best pitcher in baseball, are getting Stroman and Syndergaard back, and have shored up the rest of their rotation and bullpen.

96 might be bullish, but on paper, that's a good team that can grab 90+ wins in that division.
I don’t think they have a better lineup than Atlanta because the Braves have Freeman and Acuna.  Fangraphs has them at 89 wins and the Braves at 91. That seems more realistic.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings


Online Slateman

  • Posts: 56143
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #10: February 11, 2021, 08:03:43 AM »
I don’t think they have a better lineup than Atlanta because the Braves have Freeman and Acuna.  Fangraphs has them at 89 wins and the Braves at 91. That seems more realistic.

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings


The Mets added an MVP caliber player to their lineup, one of the best hitting catchers, and they still have Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto. That's the best lineup in the NL East.

And that link has the Mets at 91 wins

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 18426
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #11: February 11, 2021, 08:44:15 AM »
The Mets added an MVP caliber player to their lineup, one of the best hitting catchers, and they still have Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto. That's the best lineup in the NL East.

And that link has the Mets at 91 wins
You are correct. I mixed them up. Lindor is not as good offensively as Acuna or Freeman. McCann does not have a great track record before last season.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 56143
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #12: February 11, 2021, 08:49:30 AM »
You are correct. I mixed them up. Lindor is not as good offensively as Acuna or Freeman. McCann does not have a great track record before last season.
And the Mets have Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and JD Davis. They also have a much better rotation.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 18426
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #13: February 11, 2021, 08:52:41 AM »
And the Mets have Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Jeff McNeil, and JD Davis. They also have a much better rotation.
And the Braves have Albies and Swanson and Ozuna and Flowers. Agree the Mets have the better rotation. Just saying 96 games seems quite a stretch. Especially in a division with probably no real bad team. It’s not the NL Central.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 56143
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #14: February 11, 2021, 09:05:37 AM »
And the Braves have Albies and Swanson and Ozuna and Flowers. Agree the Mets have the better rotation. Just saying 96 games seems quite a stretch. Especially in a division with probably no real bad team. It’s not the NL Central.
Ozuna is the only one who compares. Barely.

Conforto has performed as well, if not better, than Acuna, the last two seasons. Alonso is a season removed from mashing 50 homeruns.

This is virtually the same Mets team that ended 2010 with 86 wins, except they just added a top 10 player in baseball.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 18426
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #15: February 11, 2021, 09:23:07 AM »
Ozuna is the only one who compares. Barely.

Conforto has performed as well, if not better, than Acuna, the last two seasons. Alonso is a season removed from mashing 50 homeruns.

This is virtually the same Mets team that ended 2010 with 86 wins, except they just added a top 10 player in baseball.
PECOTA projects the Mets to beat the Braves by 14 games. I can’t believe that. Sounds like you do.  Alonso didn’t do nearly as well last year. Would not be the first guy to be a bit of a flash in the pan.  The Braves were right behind the Dodgers in runs score per game last year. Almost one run per game more than the Mets.  I don’t see adding Lindor and McCann making that up.  Freeman and Acuna are better offensively than anyone on the Mets.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 56143
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #16: February 11, 2021, 10:10:15 AM »
PECOTA projects the Mets to beat the Braves by 14 games. I can’t believe that. Sounds like you do.  Alonso didn’t do nearly as well last year. Would not be the first guy to be a bit of a flash in the pan.  The Braves were right behind the Dodgers in runs score per game last year. Almost one run per game more than the Mets.  I don’t see adding Lindor and McCann making that up.  Freeman and Acuna are better offensively than anyone on the Mets.
I think the Braves are due for a drop off. I dont think Ozuna is going to sustain 2020 over 150+ games and he will have to play the OF. Their rotation is suspect except for Fried.

Like I said, 96 games is a bit much, but the Mets can, on paper, win 90+

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 30214
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #17: February 11, 2021, 12:13:50 PM »
PECOTA also thinks Fried and Anderson revert to the mean, and that Charlie Morton is old coming off an injury.  Freeman and Ozuna, while very good, and D'Arnaud, are also due to revert.  Really, who underperformed for them last year?

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 18426
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #18: February 11, 2021, 12:38:53 PM »
PECOTA also thinks Fried and Anderson revert to the mean, and that Charlie Morton is old coming off an injury.  Freeman and Ozuna, while very good, and D'Arnaud, are also due to revert.  Really, who underperformed for them last year?
If the lineup reverts that probably means they only score 5 runs a game.

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 56143
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #19: February 11, 2021, 01:00:54 PM »
PECOTA also thinks Fried and Anderson revert to the mean, and that Charlie Morton is old coming off an injury.  Freeman and Ozuna, while very good, and D'Arnaud, are also due to revert.  Really, who underperformed for them last year?
Literally no one in that lineup overperformed. Ozuna and Freeman massively overperformed

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 18426
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #20: February 12, 2021, 07:54:27 AM »

Online imref

  • Posts: 33276
  • Redemption
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #21: February 12, 2021, 08:38:29 AM »
Chapman would be a nice fit here.

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 18426
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #22: February 12, 2021, 08:45:48 AM »
Chapman would be a nice fit here.
yes, but they would have to give up one of those pitchers they don't want to give up. 

Online Slateman

  • Posts: 56143
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #23: February 12, 2021, 08:49:03 AM »
:lmao:

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 18426
Re: 2021 NL East
« Reply #24: February 12, 2021, 09:40:37 AM »