Author Topic: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!  (Read 1522 times)

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Online Mattionals

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #50: January 09, 2021, 05:36:49 PM »
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/01/nationals-to-sign-kyle-schwarber.html

So, in Nats fashion, it is a $7MM contract if he does really well and decides to decline his half of the option, a 2 year $18MM contract if he and the Nats are happy together, or a $10MM contract with $3MM deferred if he is not wanted back.  Does someone know how this would count against the tax threshold?

So it's either a 10M or 9M tax hit? This always confuses me because options change the valuation of a deal in AAV terms. We are talking 10M I'm guaranteed money but a chance for 18M over two seasons. If you are computing AAV, you won't know the tax hit until after the season.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #51: January 09, 2021, 05:49:51 PM »
So it's either a 10M or 9M tax hit? This always confuses me because options change the valuation of a deal in AAV terms. We are talking 10M I'm guaranteed money but a chance for 18M over two seasons. If you are computing AAV, you won't know the tax hit until after the season.
conservatively, I guess you plan on $10MM and smile if it is less.  What happens if Schwarber walks and declines his option?  Then it is just $7MM. More smiles, I guess?

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #52: January 09, 2021, 10:59:28 PM »
I don’t like the acquisition. Would rather have Brantley or Rosario.

Offline NatsAllThe Way

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #53: January 09, 2021, 11:36:20 PM »
He's a belter who's gonna bounce back in a big way.  Book it Danos.

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #54: January 10, 2021, 09:12:45 AM »
The offense could/should be fun to watch. Doesn’t seem like we’re interested in catching the ball this year, though.
Is Schwarber Willy MO Pena / Adam Dunn bad?

Offline Slateman

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Re: Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #55: January 10, 2021, 09:23:09 AM »
Is Schwarber Willy MO Pena / Adam Dunn bad?
He is basically Adam Dunn.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #56: January 10, 2021, 09:34:17 AM »
He is basically Adam Dunn.
Dunn's two seasons with the Nats.  OPS + was 144 and 138. I will take that.

Schwarber can play LF better than Dunn.  That's a very low bar of course.  He played 49 games in LF in 2020; 9 as the DH.

"The Baseball Info Solutions metrics included in the Bill James annual had him at -1 last season [2019]. That’s not great but it ranked him eighth among 13 left field qualifiers (ahead of Ryan Braun, Christin Stewart, Andrew Benintendi (that’s a shock), Eddie Rosario (another surprise) and Eloy Jimenez."

From:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/philrogers/2020/05/22/dont-assume-chicago-cubs-will-use-kyle-schwarber-as-their-regular-dh/?sh=559656ff6ecd

He was number one in LF assists for the NL in 2018 and 2019. 

Offline Slateman

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Re: Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #57: January 10, 2021, 09:48:27 AM »
Dunn's two seasons with the Nats.  OPS + was 144 and 138. I will take that.

Schwarber can play LF better than Dunn.  That's a very low bar of course.  He played 49 games in LF in 2020; 9 as the DH.

"The Baseball Info Solutions metrics included in the Bill James annual had him at -1 last season [2019]. That’s not great but it ranked him eighth among 13 left field qualifiers (ahead of Ryan Braun, Christin Stewart, Andrew Benintendi (that’s a shock), Eddie Rosario (another surprise) and Eloy Jimenez."

From:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/philrogers/2020/05/22/dont-assume-chicago-cubs-will-use-kyle-schwarber-as-their-regular-dh/?sh=559656ff6ecd

He was number one in LF assists for the NL in 2018 and 2019. 
Let me rephrase: He's a poor man's Adam Dunn. And I dont think he plays LF better


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #59: January 10, 2021, 10:07:38 AM »
I don’t like the acquisition. Would rather have Brantley or Rosario.
Brantley would have been a 3 year, $45MM commitment to an older guy, but I think I may be with you.  I had originally not been that keen on Rosario because I (incorrectly) thought we needed a right handed bat more, but, if you are just going for a slugger, that would have been a nice get.  The questions would be years and dollars for Rosario.  Schwarber is a better OPS guy, but his OBP is heavier on walks while Rosario is more batting average.  It's also a bit odd, but there may even be a little body-type judgment on Schwarber's D.  He's a big guy, but by some measures, it is not bad (merely average or a touch below).  On this, I might trust Rizzo since he has a scout's eye.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #60: January 10, 2021, 10:13:10 AM »
If he was that bad, why did the Cubs use him at DH so little in 2020??

If I am reading this correctly he was the second rated defensive LF in 2019 and 2018?

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=&page=1_50

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

https://www.mlb.com/news/cubs-kyle-schwarber-has-improved-on-defense-c285126178


-12 DRS, -30 OAA.

I'm not sure how anyone can make the arguement that hes not awful defensively. Hes legitimately worse than Soto. And now that we're moving Soto to RF, we've made him worse as well.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #61: January 10, 2021, 10:21:01 AM »
-12 DRS, -30 OAA.

I'm not sure how anyone can make the arguement that hes not awful defensively. Hes legitimately worse than Soto. And now that we're moving Soto to RF, we've made him worse as well.
You will have to argue with the stat boys at Fangraphs and the other sources provided.  You've clearly overrated him offensively and underrated him defensively. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #62: January 10, 2021, 10:33:27 AM »
-12 DRS, -30 OAA.

I'm not sure how anyone can make the arguement that hes not awful defensively. Hes legitimately worse than Soto. And now that we're moving Soto to RF, we've made him worse as well.
Defensive measures are mixed.   You look at UZR, he's average.  The DRS number you quote is career, so you are talking something like 4 runs below average per 1200 inning (130 games).  That's not good, but not pathetic.  Eddie Rosario, by comparison, on DRS is 9 above over 4800 innings, but that was basically all piled up by his rookie year.   Schwarber may suffer a bit from the "jeans model" view of what an outfielder is supposed to look like.  I think the Dunn comparison is a bit unfair.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #63: January 10, 2021, 11:16:55 AM »
Defensive measures are mixed.   You look at UZR, he's average.  The DRS number you quote is career, so you are talking something like 4 runs below average per 1200 inning (130 games).  That's not good, but not pathetic.  Eddie Rosario, by comparison, on DRS is 9 above over 4800 innings, but that was basically all piled up by his rookie year.   Schwarber may suffer a bit from the "jeans model" view of what an outfielder is supposed to look like.  I think the Dunn comparison is a bit unfair.
Most LFers are not that good.  That's why they are in LF.  Soto won't be any great shakes in RF but neither was Eaton.  Or Harper before him despite a better arm.  I generally think corner OF defense is overrated.  There are just not that many difficult plays.  Schwarber has a good arm. 

Offline blue911

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Re: Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #64: January 10, 2021, 12:36:19 PM »
Kyle Schwarber is Matt Stairs illegitimate love child.

Offline hohoho

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #65: January 10, 2021, 04:17:42 PM »
A waste of money: A huge liability in the field, a strikeout king (1 every 3 abs) and just an average lifetime OPS for a corner outfielder.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #66: January 10, 2021, 04:48:36 PM »
Kyle Schwarber is Matt Stairs illegitimate love child.
Matt LeCroy.

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #67: January 11, 2021, 10:05:31 AM »
I don't have an issue with the signing. However I had hoped for Puig on the cheap to be honest.

Online bluestreak

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #68: January 11, 2021, 12:18:56 PM »
Not confirmed, but some assessments I’ve read said it would count $10 million

If it works like previous years. It will count as $7 million this year and then either $3 million or $11 million next year.

Online Mattionals

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #69: January 11, 2021, 12:27:51 PM »
If it works like previous years. It will count as $7 million this year and then either $3 million or $11 million next year.

So does the tax see it as two separate one year deals from an AAV standpoint? Spotrac hasn't updated Schwarber's salary in their estimate and Cots has him listed as a 10M hit this season.

Question, if a league minimum guy is on the roster, his salary is prorated for his time on the 25-man right? If the guy gets sent down to the minors, he doesn't count for the full league minimum? Am I right or wrong in that assumption?

Offline welch

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #70: January 12, 2021, 02:35:06 PM »
Schwarber plus Robles looks like a sloppy outfield. The Post quotes Schwarber as saying that he's a competent OF, better than people think. It also quotes Martinez on Victor Robles: Robles ought to return to gold-glove CF. That seems over-optimistic.

Soto might be the best of the bunch at his position. Not, that is a better and quicker fielder than Robles, but better at LF/RF than Robles is in CF. Here's hoping that Rizzo knows what he's doing. (And, yes, Rizzo usually has good reasons...)

Online DCFan

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #71: January 12, 2021, 02:36:33 PM »
Schwarber plus Robles looks like a sloppy outfield. The Post quotes Schwarber as saying that he's a competent OF, better than people think. It also quotes Martinez on Victor Robles: Robles ought to return to gold-glove CF. That seems over-optimistic.

Soto might be the best of the bunch at his position. Not, that is a better and quicker fielder than Robles, but better at LF/RF than Robles is in CF. Here's hoping that Rizzo knows what he's doing. (And, yes, Rizzo usually has good reasons...)

We still have Stevenson to bring in as a defensive sub when we need to protect all those leads we'll have this season. :mg:

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #72: January 12, 2021, 03:05:13 PM »
Schwarber plus Robles looks like a sloppy outfield. The Post quotes Schwarber as saying that he's a competent OF, better than people think. It also quotes Martinez on Victor Robles: Robles ought to return to gold-glove CF. That seems over-optimistic.

Soto might be the best of the bunch at his position. Not, that is a better and quicker fielder than Robles, but better at LF/RF than Robles is in CF. Here's hoping that Rizzo knows what he's doing. (And, yes, Rizzo usually has good reasons...)
as that article points out, it depends which Robles you get.  Robles 2019 was easily GG caliber.  Robles 2020 was one of those guys with highlight real moments but not good overall.

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #73: January 12, 2021, 03:27:49 PM »
He bulked up before 2020, no?

as that article points out, it depends which Robles you get.  Robles 2019 was easily GG caliber.  Robles 2020 was one of those guys with highlight real moments but not good overall.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #74: January 12, 2021, 03:36:52 PM »
He bulked up before 2020, no?

yes, which didn't please Davey.