Author Topic: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!  (Read 2395 times)

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Online varoadking

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #100: April 20, 2021, 09:35:00 PM »
How much is he making? Oh, one year, $8M.

IIRC, our option on him was for $10MM...

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #101: April 30, 2021, 10:13:43 PM »
the Cream rises again!


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #102: April 30, 2021, 10:15:50 PM »
In all seriousness, it's been 13 days since the last positive post.  But I'll take it tonight. 

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #103: May 01, 2021, 12:37:47 AM »
So what's the actual, real WAR on a guy who hits .200 with no power, except hits 500 ft walk off homers every time he is presented with the opportunity?

He's legitimately won us 2 games on walk offs, and played stellar D while being completely useless at the plate when the game isn't on the line.     :rofl:

Offline Copecwby20

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #104: May 01, 2021, 04:08:40 AM »
So what's the actual, real WAR on a guy who hits .200 with no power, except hits 500 ft walk off homers every time he is presented with the opportunity?

He's legitimately won us 2 games on walk offs, and played stellar D while being completely useless at the plate when the game isn't on the line.     :rofl:


Baseball fans are numbers nerds and have a number for everything. Maybe WOAR (Walk offs above replacement) can be a new stat.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #105: May 01, 2021, 09:07:12 AM »
So what's the actual, real WAR on a guy who hits .200 with no power, except hits 500 ft walk off homers every time he is presented with the opportunity?

He's legitimately won us 2 games on walk offs, and played stellar D while being completely useless at the plate when the game isn't on the line.     :rofl:


Baseball fans are numbers nerds and have a number for everything. Maybe WOAR (Walk offs above replacement) can be a new stat.

Not surprisingly, one of those numbers nerds has already created that stat.  It's called WPA - win probability added.  Last night, he racked up .492 WPA in one game - implying that the Nationals had essentially a 50/50 shot at that game without his contribution, and that he turned it into a win.  His other walkoff gave him .316 WPA that game.  But other than those and a couple multi-hit games that ended up slightly on the positive side of the ledger, each game has been a negative WPA (see it here: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=schwaky01&t=b&year=2021).

The end result is that he's been worth 0.374 WPA over the year, which should correlate to a little more than a third of a win better than if he wasn't there (For comparison, Bell has been at -.690 and Scherzer at a positive .563).  Because Schwarber's few contributions have been so timely, that rates him as more valuable than his WAR (0.1) because WAR doesn't account for situations. 

Seems about right to me from the eye test.  He's sucked most of the time and has been a mild negative in most games.  But two walkoff are still two walkoffs.


Offline bluestreak

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #106: May 01, 2021, 10:21:57 AM »
I am going to geek out some more. There is a stat that’s a corollary to this called championship win probability added. Basically how much one game increases the teams chances of not only winning a game, but an entire championship. The reason I bring this up is because of Howie Kendrick. His foul pole clang was the tenth most clutch play in the history of baseball. More than even the Mazeroski and Joe Carter Walk-offs.

https://twitter.com/danhirsch/status/1189732355495383040?s=21

https://www.mlb.com/news/most-clutch-plays-in-postseason-history-c212102298


Not surprisingly, one of those numbers nerds has already created that stat.  It's called WPA - win probability added.  Last night, he racked up .492 WPA in one game - implying that the Nationals had essentially a 50/50 shot at that game without his contribution, and that he turned it into a win.  His other walkoff gave him .316 WPA that game.  But other than those and a couple multi-hit games that ended up slightly on the positive side of the ledger, each game has been a negative WPA (see it here: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=schwaky01&t=b&year=2021).

The end result is that he's been worth 0.374 WPA over the year, which should correlate to a little more than a third of a win better than if he wasn't there (For comparison, Bell has been at -.690 and Scherzer at a positive .563).  Because Schwarber's few contributions have been so timely, that rates him as more valuable than his WAR (0.1) because WAR doesn't account for situations. 

Seems about right to me from the eye test.  He's sucked most of the time and has been a mild negative in most games.  But two walkoff are still two walkoffs.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #107: May 01, 2021, 11:07:14 AM »
One other thing about WPA is it only measures offense.  I can't think of specific swing plays on defense.  I think he's been involved in some misplayed balls that drop between Robles/Stevenson and him.  It's also tough to figure out the balls at the fringe of his range or beyond that an average guy gets to. FWIW, UZR is down on his arm, which is supposed to be the best part of his d.  I don't remember which play or plays it is that led to that.

Offline Dave in Fairfax

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #108: May 01, 2021, 01:17:41 PM »
One other thing about WPA is it only measures offense.  I can't think of specific swing plays on defense.  I think he's been involved in some misplayed balls that drop between Robles/Stevenson and him.  It's also tough to figure out the balls at the fringe of his range or beyond that an average guy gets to. FWIW, UZR is down on his arm, which is supposed to be the best part of his d.  I don't remember which play or plays it is that led to that.
I suppose the defensive equivalent would be Michael A. Taylor. Generally mediocre, but lots of clutch plays like the final out of the 2019 NLDS Game 5.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Schwarber, the Cream of LF options!
« Reply #109: May 01, 2021, 01:19:32 PM »
One other thing about WPA is it only measures offense.  I can't think of specific swing plays on defense.  I think he's been involved in some misplayed balls that drop between Robles/Stevenson and him.  It's also tough to figure out the balls at the fringe of his range or beyond that an average guy gets to. FWIW, UZR is down on his arm, which is supposed to be the best part of his d.  I don't remember which play or plays it is that led to that.

It also doesn't include a positional adjustment.  It's basically, for hitters, whose at-bats are the most impactful.  It's an absolute value metric, not a relative one.