Author Topic: Welcome Josh Bell  (Read 3283 times)

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Online Slateman

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Re: Welcome Josh Bell
« Reply #100: April 28, 2021, 11:45:40 PM »
Hernandez is hitting .333/.400/.524

Offline DPMOmaha

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Re: Welcome Josh Bell
« Reply #101: April 29, 2021, 09:58:36 AM »
Zimmerman does.   Not Hernandez
Yes he does. At least until he cools off.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Welcome Josh Bell
« Reply #102: April 29, 2021, 10:04:05 AM »
Yes he does. At least until he cools off.
Zimmerman hit at this this same pace for 144 games in 2017, so it's not impossible he could keep it up with a bit of workload management.  His Plantar Fasciitis problem is behind him, and had a fully year to recover and looks fit.   I think you have to target him for at least 80-90 games, if there's a chance he can be a >.900 OPS guy.  I also think if he was nursing something, he wouldn't have been at 1B these 2 games with the DH.

Online Slateman

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Re: Welcome Josh Bell
« Reply #103: April 29, 2021, 10:07:52 AM »
Zimmerman hit at this this same pace for 144 games in 2017, so it's not impossible he could keep it up with a bit of workload management.  His Plantar Fasciitis problem is behind him, and had a fully year to recover and looks fit.   I think you have to target him for at least 80-90 games, if there's a chance he can be a >.900 OPS guy.  I also think if he was nursing something, he wouldn't have been at 1B these 2 games with the DH.
When Zim's healthy, he rakes

Online imref

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Re: Welcome Josh Bell
« Reply #104: April 29, 2021, 10:47:01 AM »
When Zim's healthy, he rakes

we'd be talking about his chances for the HOF if he stayed healthy. 2006-2013 was a heck of a run.  :(

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Welcome Josh Bell
« Reply #105: April 29, 2021, 10:48:47 AM »
Well, if Zim is really and truly healthy, you could think of playing him occasionally in left against a lefty if you are committed to playing Bell. 

It's very hard to map out 350+ PAs for Zimmerman.  I took the # of LHP pitchers with > or = 10 IP, ordered them by # games, eliminated those with over 6 appearances (the number by Kershaw), and guesstimate that there are about 45 LHP in rotations or as the long guys after openers.  That's a bit less than 1/3 of  of starting slots (150).  Figure that amounts to about 54 games vs. LH starters or long guys, and maybe another 6 in AL parks (2/3 of 9 more b/c he'd already be facing AL lefty starters).  That's roughly 60 starts, assuming Bell never starts against a lefty.  Give him 60 starts,  and that's about 250 PAs.  Even if he PHs and stays in games, I don't see an easy path to more than 320 PAs.

Online imref

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Re: Welcome Josh Bell
« Reply #106: April 29, 2021, 11:16:34 AM »
Well, if Zim is really and truly healthy, you could think of playing him occasionally in left against a lefty if you are committed to playing Bell. 

It's very hard to map out 350+ PAs for Zimmerman.  I took the # of LHP pitchers with > or = 10 IP, ordered them by # games, eliminated those with over 6 appearances (the number by Kershaw), and guesstimate that there are about 45 LHP in rotations or as the long guys after openers.  That's a bit less than 1/3 of  of starting slots (150).  Figure that amounts to about 54 games vs. LH starters or long guys, and maybe another 6 in AL parks (2/3 of 9 more b/c he'd already be facing AL lefty starters).  That's roughly 60 starts, assuming Bell never starts against a lefty.  Give him 60 starts,  and that's about 250 PAs.  Even if he PHs and stays in games, I don't see an easy path to more than 320 PAs.

That sounds right, but if Bell is still hitting .120 in another week Zimm will probably start getting the majority of starts.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Welcome Josh Bell
« Reply #107: April 29, 2021, 11:29:02 AM »
54 games against LHP sounds high.  It feels more like 20-25% of games.

If they're insistent on getting Bell going, they should be double-switching in Zimmerman every tight game when the SP leaves.   He'd probably get an average of 2 plate appearances a game, and his defense at 1B for late innings.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Welcome Josh Bell
« Reply #108: April 29, 2021, 04:15:39 PM »
54 games against LHP sounds high.  It feels more like 20-25% of games.

If they're insistent on getting Bell going, they should be double-switching in Zimmerman every tight game when the SP leaves.   He'd probably get an average of 2 plate appearances a game, and his defense at 1B for late innings.
That was my impression before I did the sort on FG's splits page.  There may be more relievers in my sort, but then I was trying to figure the max number of starts as DH and vs. lefties, so I went with 1/3 (54) rather than 40 or less.  That said, in the NL East, there's Smyly and Fried, and Peterson, and not many other lefty starters / long guys after openers, I think.

Offline madj55

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Re: Welcome Josh Bell
« Reply #109: April 29, 2021, 05:56:32 PM »
That was my impression before I did the sort on FG's splits page.  There may be more relievers in my sort, but then I was trying to figure the max number of starts as DH and vs. lefties, so I went with 1/3 (54) rather than 40 or less.  That said, in the NL East, there's Smyly and Fried, and Peterson, and not many other lefty starters / long guys after openers, I think.
Zim will definitely get the start against Trevor Rogers if he starts this weekend. Probably the best lefty in the division.

Online Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Welcome Josh Bell
« Reply #110: May 06, 2021, 08:25:51 PM »
There comes a time when hitting under .150 with no defensive value has to get you a seat on the bench.  When the team's losing and the dude behind you is hitting .315 with power, that time is now. 

I don't care that Bell "needs to get going" or that Zimmerman will eventually get hurt if he plays.  Bell's killing the team right now while it wallows under .500 and gets swept by a division rival.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Welcome Josh Bell
« Reply #111: May 07, 2021, 10:00:59 AM »
There comes a time when hitting under .150 with no defensive value has to get you a seat on the bench.  When the team's losing and the dude behind you is hitting .315 with power, that time is now. 

I don't care that Bell "needs to get going" or that Zimmerman will eventually get hurt if he plays.  Bell's killing the team right now while it wallows under .500 and gets swept by a division rival.
I do not know if the Nats will consider playing Soto in right in Yankee Stadium with the short field.  If that is the case, then you can play RZ at first and Bell DH for one series.  If Soto must DH, then I think more or less Bell should only play against righties and that RZ should get all starts against lefties and even some righties.  There may be a preservation issue with RZ, so I'm OK with much closer to a 50/50 split.

It's a bit less glaring than Bell, but there's a Schwarber issue, too, once Soto is ready.  Yadiel has cooled some, but even in the last week he's .263 / .333 / .263.  Hollow, but he's getting on.  K rate is a problem (7 in 19 ABs).  Schwarber's OBP and SLG are better for the past week, (.350 / .438), but this is marked improvement on his start and, at least, needs to continue or improve. 

Offline Dave in Fairfax

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Re: Welcome Josh Bell
« Reply #112: May 07, 2021, 11:17:56 AM »
There comes a time when hitting under .150 with no defensive value has to get you a seat on the bench.  When the team's losing and the dude behind you is hitting .315 with power, that time is now. 

I don't care that Bell "needs to get going" or that Zimmerman will eventually get hurt if he plays.  Bell's killing the team right now while it wallows under .500 and gets swept by a division rival.
While I agree with you overall, I'm not sure what you mean by "no defensive value". Defense is about the only area where Bell seems to have improved. It's early, but he's made no errors, he is positive in DRS for the first time in his career, and he's caught some bad throws which otherwise would have sailed into the stands or the dugout, tagging the runner or the base to save the out. I suppose Zimm could have made those plays as well, though.

But the lack of offense, both for power and with RISP, is what is killing this team. Chris Davis was a good-fielding first baseman, but that didn't matter when his offense collapsed. Zimm should play as regularly as possible.

Online Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Welcome Josh Bell
« Reply #113: May 07, 2021, 11:35:53 AM »
While I agree with you overall, I'm not sure what you mean by "no defensive value". Defense is about the only area where Bell seems to have improved. It's early, but he's made no errors, he is positive in DRS for the first time in his career, and he's caught some bad throws which otherwise would have sailed into the stands or the dugout, tagging the runner or the base to save the out. I suppose Zimm could have made those plays as well, though.

But the lack of offense, both for power and with RISP, is what is killing this team. Chris Davis was a good-fielding first baseman, but that didn't matter when his offense collapsed. Zimm should play as regularly as possible.

I mean no defensive value in that he is average at best at a position at which it is not difficult to find guys who are average at best.  Any decent non-dwarf infielder can play 1B with minimal difficulty.  It's essentially impossible to offset objectively bad offense with good 1B defense.  Not so at SS or CF, for example.