2021 MLB Draft

[zimm_da_kid]

Kumar Rocker is dropping in mock drafts. He definitely had some arm fatigue. Really dont think you can put as much stock in this season, particularly for pitching. Still, that drop in velo is disconcerting. I dont see him getting past KC though. A lot of mocks have Jobe going to the Tigers and I would be really surprised if they let Rocker slip past him. Then again, Im a lot higher on the Tigers than most. Legit, they're a good free agent signing/trade away from being competitive in that division.

Lots of mock drafts have Sam Bachman going to the Nats. Size is a concern, but at worst, he'd be a shutdown closer with a hard sinker and nasty slider.

That’s exactly what we need.  A guy who projects as a closer.  Who needs top half of the first round hitting prospects anyways.

[Slateman]

That’s exactly what we need.  A guy who projects as a closer.  Who needs top half of the first round hitting prospects anyways.

Pretty sure a floor of a shutdown closer trumps this year's hitters. Especially since the college hitters are meh.

[zimm_da_kid]

Pretty sure a floor of a shutdown closer trumps this year's hitters. Especially since the college hitters are meh.

Then get McLain or Fabian and splurge a little on high school hitters late. 

[Slateman]

Then get McLain or Fabian and splurge a little on high school hitters late. 

Or maybe take the best player available.

[zimm_da_kid]

Or maybe take the best player available.

If taking the best player available is always the best option, then why do people consistently underpay their top guy to get more guys later?  An A prospect and a 3 C prospects is only better than 3 Bs and a C if the A is a Harper, Strasbourg, Cole, rendon, torkelson, etc.

Especially this year where there is a strong crop of like 8 guys (rocker, Leiter, Mayer, lawler, jobe, Watson, house, Davis) if one of those guys gets to us, then snap them up.  Otherwise, a college arm or bat who may not be a star (but likely a major leaguer in some capacity) who will take an under slot bonus could be the move.

[Slateman]

Uh .... teams that do that are notoriously cheap and poorly run. Like the Orioles.

Rizzo would laugh at you and say you take the A guy and then 3 B guys.

Its the major league baseball draft. You take BPA because you wont see these guys for 3-5 years

[Elvir Ovcina]

If taking the best player available is always the best option, then why do people consistently underpay their top guy to get more guys later?  An A prospect and a 3 C prospects is only better than 3 Bs and a C if the A is a Harper, Strasbourg, Cole, rendon, torkelson, etc.

Especially this year where there is a strong crop of like 8 guys (rocker, Leiter, Mayer, lawler, jobe, Watson, house, Davis) if one of those guys gets to us, then snap them up.  Otherwise, a college arm or bat who may not be a star (but likely a major leaguer in some capacity) who will take an under slot bonus could be the move.

Anybody who is a sure enough major leaguer to fit into the scenario you're thinking (low bust risk) is not taking an under-slot bonus unless he's a relief-only prospect or a no-hit catcher that likely profiles as a backup.  There are precious few scenarios in which either is worth a first round pick.

Sure, you can take a college senior in the first round if you want to tamp down the bonus, but then the high-upside HS guy you want later down better still be there and you better be able to get him away from Vanderbilt or whatever.  And at that point he damn well better be at least as good as the high-floor guy.

The draft isn't the crapshoot it used to be in the first and second rounds.  Analytics has changed a lot.  Look at the first round of a draft as recent as 2018.  Instead of 2/3 of guys making the majors at any point and any level of success and a significant number of total flameouts, you have this: every single college guy drafted down through Competitive Balance A (except Kyler Murray, for obvious reasons) is at least in AAA, and most have MLB experience.  And there have only been two drafts since that one! 

These guys have agents.  The agents are not statistically illiterate, or at least employ people who aren't.  The travel-ball circuit is so sickeningly ceaseless and video so ubiquitous that nobody is going on word of mouth or thin scouting opinions.  College ball is on TV now, and everything is on Youtube.  The guys who are good know they're good, and there's little incentive for anyone to play along with slot-jockeying.  It's not a crapshoot anymore, at least not at all to the same degree.

Unless, that is, you start freaking around with it and doing stupid crap like drafting high school pitchers or trying to lowball guys.

[Slateman]

Yep. The prep school hitters are going to cost more, because they can simply commit to college, do a couple years, and come back and be a top 5 pick

[Kevrock]

Wish we were 5 picks higher.

[Slateman]

Wish we were 5 picks higher.

Yep

[Smithian]

I want Sal Frelick, but I bet he goes higher as a more affordable pick. The glove plays and he looks to have lots of doubles power. I think his floor is useful 4th OF.

[UMDNats]

i'm gonna lose it if rizzo takes a turd HS arm

[Elvir Ovcina]

i'm gonna lose it if rizzo takes a turd HS arm

I will too, but I'd like to think he learned his lesson from Denaburg.  Given the advances in scouting and analytics and the march of Tommy John surgery rates, there's almost no way to justify drafting an 18-year-old pitcher in the first round.  The bust risk is simply too high, and it's too easy to find college guys with 1/2 starter upside, closer downside, and with 3 years less of injury risk.  Further, if you want to get projectable teenage arms, there's a whole raft of Latin American guys every single year in the international period. 

If you can't find 30 dudes better than the high school arm risk profiles in any draft, it's time for a new job.

[Smithian]

Draft a high schooler and hope they're ready to roll by 2023.

[Slateman]

i'm gonna lose it if rizzo takes a turd HS arm

Jobe is the only one going in the Top 15

Unless there's a major twist, Nats are gonna with Bachman, Madden, or Hogland

[zimm_da_kid]

Jobe is the only one going in the Top 15

Unless there's a major twist, Nats are gonna with Bachman, Madden, or Hogland

Hopefully madden out of those three.  Hopefully frelick falls to us or a hs shortstop gets priced down to us (unlikely)

[blue911]

You draft the best player available.

[Natsinpwc]

You draft the best player available.

Sure, but they give these guys grades.  What do you do if you have college and HS players with the same grades?  Or position players and pitchers with the same grade?

[Slateman]

Sure, but they give these guys grades.  What do you do if you have college and HS players with the same grades?  Or position players and pitchers with the same grade?

What does their girlfriend look like?

[Natsinpwc]

What does their girlfriend look like?

Sounds good to me.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

What does their girlfriend Mom look like?

age adjustment.

[Kevrock]

Jobe is the only one going in the Top 15

Unless there's a major twist, Nats are gonna with Bachman, Madden, or Hogland

Painter has a shot at going Top 15. Jobe likely won’t be available but gotta think the Nats would jump on him if he slides.

The 10-20 picks seem like they could come in any order. The 3 you list, and McGreevey is in that pack as well. On the position player side, Cowser, McLain, Frelick, all likely in the 10-20 range. It gets pretty fun if a player or two that experts have locked into the top 10 start to slide.

[Kevrock]

Sure, but they give these guys grades.  What do you do if you have college and HS players with the same grades?  Or position players and pitchers with the same grade?

Teams have them ordered on the big board. On draft night, they won’t have two players in the first round with the same exact grade. The decision is made, it’s a matter of who is available when their turn comes.

[Natsinpwc]

Teams have them ordered on the big board. On draft night, they won’t have two players in the first round with the same exact grade. The decision is made, it’s a matter of who is available when their turn comes.

Ok. Thanks.  But I assume those exact rankings are debated among their staff for weeks.  And I do believe need factors into many of those decisions.

[Kevrock]

I will too, but I'd like to think he learned his lesson from Denaburg.  Given the advances in scouting and analytics and the march of Tommy John surgery rates, there's almost no way to justify drafting an 18-year-old pitcher in the first round.  The bust risk is simply too high, and it's too easy to find college guys with 1/2 starter upside, closer downside, and with 3 years less of injury risk.  Further, if you want to get projectable teenage arms, there's a whole raft of Latin American guys every single year in the international period. 

If you can't find 30 dudes better than the high school arm risk profiles in any draft, it's time for a new job.

I mean you don’t draft a HS arm for the floor. Jackson Jobe has the best single pitch in the draft, 3 pitches graded above 60. He’s a really great prep prospect.