I'd say that's a pretty solid assessment. Sinclair was late to realize what consumers were going to do and the other networks either foresaw it or dodged a bullet by sheer luck.

They thought they could strong arm themselves into higher fees too, as they have with their local affiliates.   But the cable/sat/virtual companies have all started pushing back because it's made their businesses basically unprofitable.

The virtual MVPDs are only replacing a small percentage of cord cutters.  If you don't have the need for live sports, you can get all your programming on demand for much cheaper usually.  These sports networks can't pay their bills if only sports fans are left on the bundles.