2020-21 Offseason

[Slateman]

Of course, it's well within reason to think Stras will break down for some prolonged part of the 162 game season, that Max is on the down slope,  and Corbin remains Corbin (a #2/3 starter).  Is Corbin really Top 15 in MLB?

When you do these lists, you basically project for full health. I mean, do the Dodgers still have the best rotation in baseball of Buehler pulls a hammy? Nope

That's why I cavetated it with if healthy. If Strasburg gives you 2019 again and Max gives you something between 2019 and 2020, then yes. Corbin and Max had their worst seasons since 2016 and 2012, respectively. While Max may be getting older, I have a hard time believing that the nature of last season's schedule didnt play more of a factor. Corbin healthy and clicking is a top 15 pitcher in baseball. At least, he was in 2018 and 2019.

This is why I liked Rizzo's offseason moves. Once he was committed to Stras, he had to count on him in the regular season. So he didnt overextend the team financially by overpaying for an aging veteran.

On paper, this rotation is a monster. Hence putting it in the top 5.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

2018 - 20, Corbin is 5th among all pitchers in WAR, 18th in ERA, 5th in innings, 15th in k/9, 26th in WHIP, and 16th in K% - BB%. Off of that track record, his performance has been comfortably top 15 over that period.

[imref]

2018 - 20, Corbin is 5th among all pitchers in WAR, 18th in ERA, 5th in innings, 15th in k/9, 26th in WHIP, and 16th in K% - BB%. Off of that track record, his performance has been comfortably top 15 over that period.

And worst case we know he’s a dominant reliever.

[rileyn]

Am I the only one the doesn't see the Mets rotation as completely dominant?  I actually think DeGrom is the best pitcher in the league, but after that, I would chalk up W's with any of those guys.  I would put the Braves 5 ahead of them, and probably our as well.

[Slateman]

Am I the only one the doesn't see the Mets rotation as completely dominant?  I actually think DeGrom is the best pitcher in the league, but after that, I would chalk up W's with any of those guys.  I would put the Braves 5 ahead of them, and probably our as well.

What Braves 5?

[Natsinpwc]

What Braves 5?

Soroka
Fried
Anderson
Morton
Smyly.

Who were you expecting, Greg Maddux and Smoltz and Glavine?

[DCFan]

Soroka
Fried
Anderson
Morton
Smyly.

The 5 that will kick our asses.

[Slateman]

Soroka
Fried
Anderson
Morton
Smyly.

Who were you expecting, Greg Maddux and Smoltz and Glavine?

Soroka is coming off an Achilles rupture
Anderson has more of an injury history than Stras and has less than 40 innings of MLB baseball under his belt.
Morton is 37 and coming of an ERA of almost
Smyly sucks

The Braves starting rotation had an ERA over 5 last season. Charlie Morton ain't fixing that.

Yea, no, there is no way anyone is ranking the Braves rotation over the Nats unless they're betting on the Nats rotation being hurt.

[Natsinpwc]

Soroka is coming off an Achilles rupture
Anderson has more of an injury history than Stras and has less than 40 innings of MLB baseball under his belt.
Morton is 37 and coming of an ERA of almost
Smyly sucks

The Braves starting rotation had an ERA over 5 last season. Charlie Morton ain't fixing that.

Yea, no, there is no way anyone is ranking the Braves rotation over the Nats unless they're betting on the Nats rotation being hurt.

Don’t argue with me. I’m not making the projections.

[Natsinpwc]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-teams-that-could-surprise-in-2021?partnerId=zh-20210215-156906-MLB&qid=1026&bt_ee=H6kkRmo1GWMjdAfg9CCKYPYcJ26bW5UexR3sy7BR3Q4Oc3NJ9NNzrflKbBpikpCi&bt_ts=1613392964658

Nats head the list.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Not to make it sound too Wall Street-like, but it strikes me that this is a high-beta team.  They need to hit on some players performing like 2019 (Bell, Schwarber, Stras, Corbin, Robles) or some early career guys reaching their scouting projections (Kieboom and again Robles) or some guys defying age-based expected deterioration (Scherzer and maybe Hand or Hudson).  Not all of those will happen, but if enough do, this is a 90+ win team.  If you only get good performance out of the front 3 starters and one of the lefty big bats, then you have an 85 win team, and if you have only one of the top 3 starters on this year and an ineffective offense, then this is a 2020-level team.

[Sirjesse]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-teams-that-could-surprise-in-2021?partnerId=zh-20210215-156906-MLB&qid=1026&bt_ee=H6kkRmo1GWMjdAfg9CCKYPYcJ26bW5UexR3sy7BR3Q4Oc3NJ9NNzrflKbBpikpCi&bt_ts=1613392964658

Nats head the list.

Yeah baby roll that potential beautiful bean footage.

[UMDNats]

Not to make it sound too Wall Street-like, but it strikes me that this is a high-beta team.  They need to hit on some players performing like 2019 (Bell, Schwarber, Stras, Corbin, Robles) or some early career guys reaching their scouting projections (Kieboom and again Robles) or some guys defying age-based expected deterioration (Scherzer and maybe Hand or Hudson).  Not all of those will happen, but if enough do, this is a 90+ win team.  If you only get good performance out of the front 3 starters and one of the lefty big bats, then you have an 85 win team, and if you have only one of the top 3 starters on this year and an ineffective offense, then this is a 2019-level team.

just do what the yankees do and inexplicably get career-level performances out of guys who you thought a) stunk or b) were done

[Slateman]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-teams-that-could-surprise-in-2021?partnerId=zh-20210215-156906-MLB&qid=1026&bt_ee=H6kkRmo1GWMjdAfg9CCKYPYcJ26bW5UexR3sy7BR3Q4Oc3NJ9NNzrflKbBpikpCi&bt_ts=1613392964658

Nats head the list.

If the rotation is healthy and career-norm productive (or at least, normal over the last three seasons) and Schwarber and Bell can return to career norms, this team is a lolmets month away from 90+ wins and the NL East title

[Sirjesse]

Yeah baby roll that potential beautiful bean footage.

I’m with you all the way JCA. There are a crazy amount of variables though, both internally and externally. Internally, does Kieboom play out? Does Robles progress or at least return to 2019 form? Then there are the whole bounce back campaigns for bell, Zimmerman, Castro, schwarber offensively.

Pitching wise, we all hope for the rotation to revert to the mean. If all that happens.....you still have the outside of changes for Mets, braves, Marlins a year older and improving. That messes with everyone’s numbers. Not to mention variable of fans and coronavirus. Heck, given all the great teams in the east, the best team in the NL may come from there and still not win 90 games. All you can ask for is a chance any given season, and we definitely have that.

[imref]

We made it into Jeopardy!

https://twitter.com/markzuckerman/status/1361481771288780807?s=21

Nobody knew the correct question.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

We made it into Jeopardy!

https://twitter.com/markzuckerman/status/1361481771288780807?s=21

Nobody knew the correct question.

that's because there's so many Presidents races in baseball

[imref]

TJ McFarland to the Nationals on a minor league deal.  No relation that I know of to Seth.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcfartj01.shtml

Looks like LHP org depth

[JCA-CrystalCity]

TJ McFarland to the Nationals on a minor league deal.  No relation that I know of to Seth.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcfartj01.shtml

Looks like LHP org depth

heh, heh . . . mcfart . . .

[imref]

heh, heh . . . mcfart . . .

knock it off beavis

[Sirjesse]

I hear this team on the west coast has 640 million tied up in the left side of their infield. Man that Arenado dude is getting paid peasant money.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I hear this team on the west coast has 640 million tied up in the left side of their infield. Man that Arenado dude is getting paid peasant money.

trea turner is due for a big pay day in a couple of years if he maintains his level of play.

[Sirjesse]

trea turner is due for a big pay day in a couple of years if he maintains his level of play.

I am really torn on Turner. His speed will fall off somewhere on a long contract, but is his power developing enough to overlook it?

[Sirjesse]

trea turner is due for a big pay day in a couple of years if he maintains his level of play.

Seven years 154m? Sign him up yesterday lol!

https://thenatsreport.com/02/17/2021/allnews/what-does-a-trea-turner-extension-look-like/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Seven years 154m? Sign him up yesterday lol!

https://thenatsreport.com/02/17/2021/allnews/what-does-a-trea-turner-extension-look-like/

I think that's light, maybe way light.  This guy is a good hitter almost regardless of his speed.  .200 ISO range, and his HRs are picking up as his triples level off.  He's capable of 40+ steals still, but if he's down to 25 - 30, he's still a huge offensive threat.