2020-21 Offseason

[Elvir Ovcina]

Got ya.  But have to think it's less serious for pitcher than shoulder or arm surgery.  Don't they just do small cuts nowadays so it's minimally invasive?

Last time I checked, the wrist was part of the arm, and he was having this surgery because of nerve problems in his throwing hand.  Sure, it's probably fine, but needing surgery for carpal tunnel in his throwing hand doesn't give you any pause?

[DCFan]

Last time I checked, the wrist was part of the arm, and he was having this surgery because of nerve problems in his throwing hand.

I did check and by golly you're right!!

[Natsinpwc]

Last time I checked, the wrist was part of the arm, and he was having this surgery because of nerve problems in his throwing hand.  Sure, it's probably fine, but needing surgery for carpal tunnel in his throwing hand doesn't give you any pause?

I’m sorry. I meant elbow rather than arm.

It seems to have an excellent success rate. I have some pause but at this point I don’t see any reason he should not be back.  We will find out in March.

https://www.uofmhealth.org/health-library/hw212492

[Natsinpwc]

I did check and by golly you're right!!

Don’t you have a gun back order to check or something?

[DCFan]

Don’t you have a gun back order to check or something?

I just got the email saying I'm approved.  

[imref]

Michael A Taylor cleared waivers and has opted for free agency.

Stevenson > Taylor. Stras is all that remains from 2012

[DCFan]

Stras is all that remains from 2012

I don't recall Zim having announced his retirement.

[imref]

I don't recall Zim having announced his retirement.

he's not currently on the 40-man roster and will be a free agent as soon as contracts expire.

[DCFan]

he's not currently on the 40-man roster and will be a free agent as soon as contracts expire.

The face will be back.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If you took away the nice finish Stevenson had to this "season," I'm not sure at all that many would put him ahead of Michael A. Up til then, he had shown very little.

disagree with this.  He hit well in a short  sample in 2019, but the OF was such a squeeze with Parra that they kept Taylor down in Harrisburg the whole 2d half and kept Stevenson in Fresno.  With Stevenson, the biggest question had been his bat, and he hit well in Fresno relative to his league (not just PCL inflation).  Something seems to have clicked in 2019.  But, of course, Taylor was an FA so regardless of whether Stevenson is better, they will give him a shot rather than pay $4MM+ Taylor will likely seek.

[Natsinpwc]

disagree with this.  He hit well in a short  sample in 2019, but the OF was such a squeeze with Parra that they kept Taylor down in Harrisburg the whole 2d half and kept Stevenson in Fresno.  With Stevenson, the biggest question had been his bat, and he hit well in Fresno relative to his league (not just PCL inflation).  Something seems to have clicked in 2019.  But, of course, Taylor was an FA so regardless of whether Stevenson is better, they will give him a shot rather than pay $4MM+ Taylor will likely seek.

2019 and 2020 are both short sample sizes for Stevenson. But as you said he will be much cheaper.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

2019 and 2020 are both short sample sizes for Stevenson. But as you said he will be much cheaper.

yes as to the majors, but his 2019 Fresno time was 338 PAs, with a good wOBA+.  That's weighted for the league and kind of an overall productivity measures, so it's not like it was hollow PCL numbers.  You look at the guy and his  plate approach looks pretty good.  He's got a decent pedigree, too, as a #1 pick out of a good college program, so I'm enthused about him.  He's made a jump in offense in 2018,  2019, and 2020 when you look at his major and minors numbers, at increasingly higher assignments.  I'm not saying he's even a likely MLB regular on a competitive team, but I think he'll be a satisfactory 4th OF helped by a lefty swing. 

[varoadking]

I wanna like Stevenson...

[Natsinpwc]

I wanna like Stevenson...

 

[HondoKillebrew]

 

[Smithian]

Funny you chose 28 and not 30. And only two of those seasons have been in the last 6 seasons.

If you hold that 33 starts is a full season of starts in a 162 game season (162 ÷ 5 (every fifth game) = 32.4, so Stras gets the remainder) and that a full season of starts this season was 12, then Strasburg has missed 22% of his expected starts after his shutdown season.

The truth is that if Strasburg were in any other team, we would be laughing at the team that gave 7 years, 245 million to a pitcher that missed over 20% of his starts, was 32 years old, and has never been in contention for a Cy Young. We would be laughing hysterically and slapping ourselves on the back about how great our GM is for not being so desperate.

Sorry, you don't pay for aces to miss 20+ percent of their starts over their contracts, and you don't pay pitchers that do ace-type contracts

Stephen Strasburg in 2019 had 33 starts, 200+ innings, lead the NL in K's, and won every single one of his postseason starts, including a Game 6 start which, if he ages gracefully, will be on the front page of his Hall of Fame case. He won World Series MVP. You absolutely go overboard to sign that guy. And that is even before you consider it was the franchise's first World Series win, we sort of knew Rendon was gone, and it was a year removed from losing Bryce Harper.

The Nationals did what they had to do to keep him. I think they probably went $20 or $30 million too high (~10%), but there was no possible outcome where he could leave and it not be an absolute gut punch to this franchise. This is a business. Strasburg's representative knew his value to the Nats and only needed even passive interest from teams like the Padres, Phillies, and Yankees to scare the Nats into imagining a doomsday scenario of losing both him and Rendon.

I think it'll be hard for Strasburg to completely justify his contract on paper, but I'm looping him in there with the Zimmerman and Werth contracts. We want him to be a cornerstone and part of winning a lot of games, and still we know at the time of the signing there are off field realities driving the contract higher than pure production is likely to match.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Stephen Strasburg in 2019 had 33 starts, 200+ innings, lead the NL in K's, and won every single one of his postseason starts, including a Game 6 start which, if he ages gracefully, will be on the front page of his Hall of Fame case. He won World Series MVP. You absolutely go overboard to sign that guy. And that is even before you consider it was the franchise's first World Series win, we sort of knew Rendon was gone, and it was a year removed from losing Bryce Harper.

The Nationals did what they had to do to keep him. I think they probably went $20 or $30 million too high (~10%), but there was no possible outcome where he could leave and it not be an absolute gut punch to this franchise. This is a business. Strasburg's representative knew his value to the Nats and only needed even passive interest from teams like the Padres, Phillies, and Yankees to scare the Nats into imagining a doomsday scenario of losing both him and Rendon.

I think it'll be hard for Strasburg to completely justify his contract on paper, but I'm looping him in there with the Zimmerman and Werth contracts. We want him to be a cornerstone and part of winning a lot of games, and still we know at the time of the signing there are off field realities driving the contract higher than pure production is likely to match.

The problem isn't him undershooting the contract by 10% or it turning into a Ryan Zimmerman contract.  It's the possibility of his arm history and contract size turning it into a Jordan Zimmermann with Detroit-shaped anchor.

[Slateman]

Stephen Strasburg in 2019 had 33 starts, 200+ innings, lead the NL in K's, and won every single one of his postseason starts, including a Game 6 start which, if he ages gracefully, will be on the front page of his Hall of Fame case. He won World Series MVP. You absolutely go overboard to sign that guy. And that is even before you consider it was the franchise's first World Series win, we sort of knew Rendon was gone, and it was a year removed from losing Bryce Harper.

The Nationals did what they had to do to keep him. I think they probably went $20 or $30 million too high (~10%), but there was no possible outcome where he could leave and it not be an absolute gut punch to this franchise. This is a business. Strasburg's representative knew his value to the Nats and only needed even passive interest from teams like the Padres, Phillies, and Yankees to scare the Nats into imagining a doomsday scenario of losing both him and Rendon.

I think it'll be hard for Strasburg to completely justify his contract on paper, but I'm looping him in there with the Zimmerman and Werth contracts. We want him to be a cornerstone and part of winning a lot of games, and still we know at the time of the signing there are off field realities driving the contract higher than pure production is likely to match.

And all that is great except its the only time in five seasons he was healthy. You talk of a hall of fame case, but he doesnt have one. Starters get into the Hall because they post season in and season out. He doesnt do that. At best he'll have 150 wins. No Cy Young votes. No major milestones. Misses 20% of his starts. He ain't getting into the Hall of Fame because of one postseason.

Again, we would be cackling like hyenas if the Phillies or Padres had given him 245 million. Hell we laughed at them for signing Arietta.

The Nationals didn't HAVE to do it. They could have been non-sentimental and made rational decision. They clearly had the money to keep Rendon. And there was this guy named Cole who was available.

That contract is exactly the kind of thing that teams past their window do to try and hold on, and it rarely works.

[varoadking]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ QFT ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[Mattionals]

Zuck says Nats hired Jim Hickey. Worked with Davey in Tampa and Chicago (he replaced Bosio).

[imref]

Zuck says Nats hired Jim Hickey. Worked with Davey in Tampa and Chicago (he replaced Bosio).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Hickey_(baseball)

[Five Banners]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Hickey_(baseball)

https://web.archive.org/web/20171005063317/http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/rays/jim-hickey-wont-be-back-as-rays-pitching-coach/2339738

“Hickey, 56 next week, joined the Rays staff in 2007, in Joe Maddon''s second year, and led the pitching staff that too the Rays to the playoffs four times in six years. He is known for his impressive work in getting young starters acclimated to the majors and in resuscitating the career of veteran relievers.

“Rays starter Chris Archer had this to say about Hickey:

“"Hickey is one of the most intellectual people I know. He's also one of the best people persons I know. The combination of his ability to analyze and apply information, as well as communicate to his players is what causes him to enhance pitchers careers, young and old.

“From him helping me prepare prior to every major-league start I've made to our wide ranging chats after practice, on the plane, over a meal, I'm going to miss many many things about Hickey and his influence on our organization.''“

[varoadking]

Max has put his McLean home on the market for $15MM after recently buying a $10MM home in Jupiter, FL, Spring Training home of the Cards and Fish, and about 15 minutes north of the Nats WPB ST site...

[imref]

Jessica Camerato  @JessicaCamerato
9m
Hickey’s pitching philosophy is “throw strikes, work quick and change speeds.” He noted he’s a “huge believer” in the changeup for its efficiency and outs. #Nationals

Much better than nibbling around the edges

[UMDNats]

Pretty sure 100% of pitching coaches say they want their pitchers to throw strikes and work quick.