2020-21 Offseason

[imref]

Thinking on whether Zim will be back in 2021? Is it Covid situation-dependent? I would think so.

If there is no safe and effective vaccine ready to be distributed wholesale until a year from now (as touted by the CDC Director, Redfield), next Spring is gonna still see no fans in the parks and player opt-outs.

Maybe not packed parks, but I could see MLB doing what the NFL is doing and allowing less-than-capacity attendance. 

[UMDNats]

fans will be back next season. maybe not at full capacity, but i do expect full capacity allowance. MLS, NCAAF, NFL are all doing fans in the stands right now and MLB season 2021 is 7 months away. We're already at the point of a loud portion of fans saying it's all a charade and to just allow fans back (not saying it's right or wrong, just saying). don't think owners will have the appetite for empty stadiums and millions more lost next year.

[Natsinpwc]

fans will be back next season. maybe not at full capacity, but i do expect full capacity allowance. MLS, NCAAF, NFL are all doing fans in the stands right now and MLB season 2021 is 7 months away. We're already at the point of a loud portion of fans saying it's all a charade and to just allow fans back (not saying it's right or wrong, just saying). don't think owners will have the appetite for empty stadiums and millions more lost next year.

There’s only a couple teams in the NFL allowing fans now.

MLB has more fans in the most vulnerable category. I think DC will be a difficult place to convince the fans to come back. 

[UMDNats]

There’s only a couple teams in the NFL allowing fans now.

MLB has more fans in the most vulnerable category. I think DC will be a difficult place to convince the fans to come back. 

more teams are opening up to some fans in october. 7 months is a long time. COVID started here 6 months ago and we're all adapting to a new normal.

to get back on baseball track, i do wonder if zimm will bother coming back. i can see him and his ego wanting to not go out into retirement thanks to COVID. i think he tries to come back for 1 more year regardless.

[rugbyflanker]

I had heard MLB is toying with the idea of allowing some fans into the stands for the playoffs starting next week.

[Natsinpwc]

more teams are opening up to some fans in october. 7 months is a long time. COVID started here 6 months ago and we're all adapting to a new normal.

to get back on baseball track, i do wonder if zimm will bother coming back. i can see him and his ego wanting to not go out into retirement thanks to COVID. i think he tries to come back for 1 more year regardless.

Can you really see DC (or other northeastern cities or CA) opening to more than say one quarter capacity?  A vaccine will at best be like 50 percent effective. Most older people are still going to avoid big crowds. 

[Natsinpwc]

I had heard MLB is toying with the idea of allowing some fans into the stands for the playoffs starting next week.

That seems just really dumb given that they will be playing at neutral sites. What’s the point?  I have watched some of these football games and it’s like watching the old USFL. 

[UMDNats]

Can you really see DC (or other northeastern cities or CA) opening to more than say one quarter capacity?  A vaccine will at best be like 50 percent effective. Most older people are still going to avoid big crowds. 

by 2021 i believe we will simply be operating with a new normal. elderly, high risk have to be more careful, the rest of us try to live safely and smartly. maybe we have treatments, cures, vaccine.

baseball absolutely cannot afford a season with no fans. team budgets will plummet next year and empty stadiums again would be a death sentence.

[Natsinpwc]

by 2021 i believe we will simply be operating with a new normal. elderly, high risk have to be more careful, the rest of us try to live safely and smartly. baseball absolutely cannot afford a season with no fans.

The city will determine how many fans are allowed in games. Not the baseball teams. Not even southern states and cities want to start a new outbreak at a sporting event.  Are cruise ships coming back also?

[rugbyflanker]

That seems just really dumb given that they will be playing at neutral sites. What’s the point?  I have watched some of these football games and it’s like watching the old USFL.

Yeah it won't be much of a "bubble" then, huh? Apprently Cali won't allow it, so if it happens it will be Texas only: 

https://www.si.com/mlb/indians/news/mlb-wants-fans-to-be-allowed-in-stands-for-the-nlcs-and-world-series-in-texas

[zimm_da_kid]

james mccann, justin wilson or tony watson, and cruz or ozuna please

[Slateman]

james mccann, justin wilson or tony watson, and cruz or ozuna please

You can have one

[imref]

Can you really see DC (or other northeastern cities or CA) opening to more than say one quarter capacity?  A vaccine will at best be like 50 percent effective. Most older people are still going to avoid big crowds. 

I could see outdoor stadiums opening to near full capacity while requiring mask wearing.  The trick will be the luxury suites which are enclosed. Maybe we'll get an instant or under 5 minute test by the spring that could be deployed to test folks as they enter the stadium.

[Natsinpwc]

I could see outdoor stadiums opening to near full capacity while requiring mask wearing.  The trick will be the luxury suites which are enclosed. Maybe we'll get an instant or under 5 minute test by the spring that could be deployed to test folks as they enter the stadium.

You’re living in a dream world. People will be taking off their masks constantly to drink and eat and talk. The aerosols wil be floating in the air in every bathroom.

[imref]

You’re living in a dream world. People will be taking off their masks constantly to drink and eat and talk. The aerosols wil be floating in the air in every bathroom.

You are probably right, but by next spring I expect financial considerations will outweigh health issues and the attitude will be to let folks back in outdoor stadiums and let them take personal responsibility for their protection.

[Natsinpwc]

You are probably right, but by next spring I expect financial considerations will outweigh health issues and the attitude will be to let folks back in outdoor stadiums and let them take personal responsibility for their protection.

And many will stay away. 

[hotshot]

Question is whether fans will return in big numbers BEFORE a vaccine-based general immunity is reached.

Movie theaters are open to 75% capacity now but actual customers in seats is far short of that. Of course, that's indoors which is more daunting I guess. No restriction on air travel but ... people are shying away on their own volition.

[Elvir Ovcina]

You are probably right, but by next spring I expect financial considerations will outweigh health issues and the attitude will be to let folks back in outdoor stadiums and let them take personal responsibility for their protection.

It'll go one of two ways: throwing caution to the wind based on a relatively positive winter or a 1918-esque second wave, in which case MLB is the least of anyone's societal concerns.   The present is not the future, and we're hitting the time when a seasonal disease becomes seasonal again.

[Slateman]

There will be a significant financial drop off, regardless of how many fans are in the stands. Combine that with being the offseason before a heated CBA re-neogtiation, and lomg contracts will not come for non-premium level talents.

Kieboom starts the season at third, Castro at second, and Garcia in the minors. We can probably get Cabrera on another one year deal and he can play first base against LHP and be the utility/backup infielder.

Pineada can be the backup catcher

Stevenson is the 4th OFer.

Kendrick can come back as DH. Thames/CJ Cron/Jake Lamb can fill in first base.

Maybe you get lucky and can grab a 4th starter in free agency looking for a rebound year. Like Robbie Ray.

[aspenbubba]

Thanks Imref. Great topic and research. And here are my thoughts on the off-season so that we can be a contender for the playtoffs.. We need a LF, 1B (full time) a true #3 SP ( and not one that is overpaid like we have now) and re-sign Suzuki . Say good bye to MAT, FA's Thames , Holt , Harrison , Doo , Howie ,Freeman and Cabrerra with a special thanks to Howie. Doo and Cabrerra for their significant contributions for our WS run. Stevenson can be our 4th OF. Is Hernandez for real? I'd give him a shot as the 5th OF.. If the DH becomes a staple in the NL I would have Zimm return in that capacity if he wants to. Perhaps Howie in that role.

I like the BP but we need a true closer who wants to be that person. Perhaps Rainey will emerge in that role. What to do with Kieboom ? I see him , at best, like Dabney Swanson as a highly touted prospect who needed to be sent down after his debut for Atlanta. Let him get it together at AAA if there is such a thing next year.

[madj55]

George Springer in RF or Ozuna in LF would be a godsend. Was holding out hope Clint Frazier would be available in a trade but I doubt that happens since he broke out. Will be interesting to see what Seattle does with Mitch Haniger given all the young talent they have in the OF.

No chance in hell Realmuto signs here, we’ll likely end up with another meh platoon.

[Slateman]

George Springer in RF or Ozuna in LF would be a godsend. Was holding out hope Clint Frazier would be available in a trade but I doubt that happens since he broke out. Will be interesting to see what Seattle does with Mitch Haniger given all the young talent they have in the OF.

No chance in hell Realmuto signs here, we’ll likely end up with another meh platoon.

They ain't spending that kind of money

[sixthree175]

George Springer in RF or Ozuna in LF would be a godsend. Was holding out hope Clint Frazier would be available in a trade but I doubt that happens since he broke out. Will be interesting to see what Seattle does with Mitch Haniger given all the young talent they have in the OF.

No chance in hell Realmuto signs here, we’ll likely end up with another meh platoon.

More likely Jerry Springer, Dr. Oz, and Todd Frazier.

Right, Realmuto is finally going to be RICH (on another team's dime).  Would he accept 1/2 of the money deferred until 2050?

[Natsinpwc]

More likely Jerry Springer, Dr. Oz, and Todd Frazier.

[madj55]

They ain't spending that kind of money

The only position they’ve ever sunk big money into has been the OF. I wouldn’t be surprised.