Author Topic: 2020-21 Offseason  (Read 18872 times)

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Offline Mattionals

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1000: January 13, 2021, 06:42:40 PM »
Knowing the Lerner family and having done some business with them I would hazard a guess that saying anything no matter how trivial at any level is a firable offence. If you recall some upper management guy who was in charge of the luxury tax was fired when they went over it several years ago.

Well if your one job is to make sure the team doesn't go above a tax line and they do, you didn't really do your job now did you?

Also, I like Zuck's reporting about the actual games and his interviewing skills with the players. Everyone else is clamoring to break when a FA signs or when a trade is impending, but outside of that I think those folks's writing skills stink. I feel Mark would say he is a beat writer and not so much a beat reporter. It's fine to disagree on this, but I like his interaction with fans and actual feedback with players (especially in the minors as I've asked him some stuff about minor league players before and he always had some info that others did not) and I could care less if he "breaks" a story.

That all being said, I did read his latest article and my first response was summed up on r/Nationals. No S4!T Sherlock. Doesn't matter how much the offense gets fixed if the pitching, specifically the three highly paid starters, play poorly. I honestly think Scherzer will bounce back. Stras will probably be decent and also miss at least 3 starts. Corbin is a wildcard to me, not sure why he got hit around so much, but with such a weak defense behind him, he can't afford to give up hits.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1001: January 13, 2021, 07:09:09 PM »
Well if your one job is to make sure the team doesn't go above a tax line and they do, you didn't really do your job now did you?

Also, I like Zuck's reporting about the actual games and his interviewing skills with the players. Everyone else is clamoring to break when a FA signs or when a trade is impending, but outside of that I think those folks's writing skills stink. I feel Mark would say he is a beat writer and not so much a beat reporter. It's fine to disagree on this, but I like his interaction with fans and actual feedback with players (especially in the minors as I've asked him some stuff about minor league players before and he always had some info that others did not) and I could care less if he "breaks" a story.

That all being said, I did read his latest article and my first response was summed up on r/Nationals. No S4!T Sherlock. Doesn't matter how much the offense gets fixed if the pitching, specifically the three highly paid starters, play poorly. I honestly think Scherzer will bounce back. Stras will probably be decent and also miss at least 3 starts. Corbin is a wildcard to me, not sure why he got hit around so much, but with such a weak defense behind him, he can't afford to give up hits.
I think he is just victim of the Lerners and Rizzo running a very tight ship as far as rumors go. 

Online imref

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1002: January 14, 2021, 10:59:32 AM »
FWIW, this is a good piece by Zuckerman on the challenges in arbitration this year as a result of the COVID-19-shortened season last year.

https://www.masnsports.com/nationals-pastime/2021/01/arbitration-process-is-complicated-for-three-nats-stars.html

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1003: January 14, 2021, 03:07:08 PM »
Are the Nats running out of money for new acquisitions ? It looks like Schwarber replacing Eaton is a wash. Bell over Thames and Kendrick is a small savings that will disappear with Soto and Turner getting hefty raises thru arbitration. Do we have enough money for an impact player like DJL and a # 4 plus a lefty reliever or do we trade for Suarez and Gray? There are a lot of vet SP not signed that could fill the hole like Sanchez in ‘19.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1004: January 14, 2021, 03:34:36 PM »
for competitive balance tax purposes, Cot's has the Nats at $173MM, with an actual payroll of $161MM.  Here's a link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Au_xTIni1eJbDGzravS1482wBbzN9DBQaOY1wwo2Mr0/edit?usp=drive_open&ouid=0

 Assuming they do not want to trip the CBT threshold but are willing to spend close to it, that leaves about $35MM to play with ($37MM per Cot's).  The CBT number includes estimates for Soto, Turner, and Bell ($5MM, $$11MM, and $6MM).  The thing is, given the cash flow situation (live gate being questionable), are they still willing to spend close to the CBT threshold?.  Also, if they are, do they want to spend extra on Turner or Soto to try to lock them in long term? IF the answer to the first q is no or the answer to the 2d is yes, then they are squeezed.
 

Online imref

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1005: January 14, 2021, 03:51:37 PM »
for competitive balance tax purposes, Cot's has the Nats at $173MM, with an actual payroll of $161MM.  Here's a link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Au_xTIni1eJbDGzravS1482wBbzN9DBQaOY1wwo2Mr0/edit?usp=drive_open&ouid=0

 Assuming they do not want to trip the CBT threshold but are willing to spend close to it, that leaves about $35MM to play with ($37MM per Cot's).  The CBT number includes estimates for Soto, Turner, and Bell ($5MM, $$11MM, and $6MM).  The thing is, given the cash flow situation (live gate being questionable), are they still willing to spend close to the CBT threshold?.  Also, if they are, do they want to spend extra on Turner or Soto to try to lock them in long term? IF the answer to the first q is no or the answer to the 2d is yes, then they are squeezed.
 

Given the issue with arbitration noted above I don't know if anyone has a realistic idea of what the salary number looks like right now.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1006: January 14, 2021, 04:28:13 PM »
for competitive balance tax purposes, Cot's has the Nats at $173MM, with an actual payroll of $161MM.  Here's a link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Au_xTIni1eJbDGzravS1482wBbzN9DBQaOY1wwo2Mr0/edit?usp=drive_open&ouid=0

 Assuming they do not want to trip the CBT threshold but are willing to spend close to it, that leaves about $35MM to play with ($37MM per Cot's).  The CBT number includes estimates for Soto, Turner, and Bell ($5MM, $$11MM, and $6MM).  The thing is, given the cash flow situation (live gate being questionable), are they still willing to spend close to the CBT threshold?.  Also, if they are, do they want to spend extra on Turner or Soto to try to lock them in long term? IF the answer to the first q is no or the answer to the 2d is yes, then they are squeezed.
 
They arent. Its pretty obvious the owners are colluding to suppress salaries. Despite signing record TV deals, they're crying poor and asking for a delayed start to the season.

I figure if the Nats are ~165 million CBT, they probably another 10-15 million. So a crap four starter and an Alex Colome type for the pen.

Online imref

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1007: January 14, 2021, 04:28:57 PM »
Jon Heyman tweets that the Nats are about to sign 16-year old Dominican SS prospect Armando Cruz for $4 million.  He calls him a "defensive whiz"

MLB ranks him as the #5 international prospect:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/international/armando-cruz-694182

some fielding work:
https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1349746697686183937?s=20

Offline Kevrock

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1008: January 14, 2021, 05:50:57 PM »
Kids got glove game

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1009: January 14, 2021, 05:53:19 PM »
Kids got glove game
Except young, good fielding players are a dime a dozen.

Online imref

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1010: January 14, 2021, 06:18:36 PM »
Except young, good fielding players are a dime a dozen.

Not ones that are valued at $4 million.

Online DCFan

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1011: January 14, 2021, 06:48:39 PM »
Not ones that are valued at $4 million.

That’s only because he’s really 26.

Online imref

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1012: January 14, 2021, 07:24:17 PM »
That’s only because he’s really 26.

:hysterical:

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1013: January 14, 2021, 08:37:49 PM »
Jon Heyman tweets that the Nats are about to sign 16-year old Dominican SS prospect Armando Cruz for $4 million.  He calls him a "defensive whiz"

MLB ranks him as the #5 international prospect:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/international/armando-cruz-694182

some fielding work:
https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1349746697686183937?s=20
What are the penalties if they spend that much?

Online DCFan

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1014: January 14, 2021, 08:41:56 PM »
What are the penalties if they spend that much?

That he’s another in a long line of busts.  :shrug:

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1015: January 15, 2021, 10:17:52 AM »
I just saw the DJL expected deal with the Yanks is 90 M over 6 years. Why couldn’t we do that.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1016: January 15, 2021, 10:25:30 AM »
I just saw the DJL expected deal with the Yanks is 90 M over 6 years. Why couldn’t we do that.
he likes the NYY, he'll also be old  at the end of that, but we could probably afford it.

While the market is slow this year, the guys who are signing are beating projections.  Schwarber topped his arb projection, Hendriks's AAV is more than Hand would have gotten for one year, McCann signed for a lot more than projected, and DJL was projected at 3 years, $42MM on FG.  that struck me as low, but it shouldn't have been <50% of his contract low.

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1017: January 15, 2021, 10:29:03 AM »
Now reporting deal is done

Online DCFan

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1018: January 15, 2021, 11:02:24 AM »
Now reporting deal is done

At least it's not to the Mets.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1019: January 15, 2021, 11:03:47 AM »
Lol, six years for a guy who might have 2 years left. Hard pass.

Nats should only be signing guys to contracts they can trade at the deadline

Offline Mattionals

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1020: January 15, 2021, 11:15:21 AM »
he likes the NYY, he'll also be old  at the end of that, but we could probably afford it.

While the market is slow this year, the guys who are signing are beating projections.  Schwarber topped his arb projection, Hendriks's AAV is more than Hand would have gotten for one year, McCann signed for a lot more than projected, and DJL was projected at 3 years, $42MM on FG.  that struck me as low, but it shouldn't have been <50% of his contract low.

I think you are right and that COVID hasn't affected salaries as much as originally anticipated.

Doing some digging on approximating CBT values, I hate the way Spotrac estimates vs. Cots. Spotrac estimates that all players on the 40-man roster will receive league minimum, which is impossible to do. Only players on the active roster get paid full league minimum, and if they are sent up or down over the course of a season, their pay is prorated. Cots tries to estimate what a legitimate number would be of all total rookie contract players instead of the nonsense Spotrac does. The difference ends up being nearly 7.5Million less headroom according to Spotrac.

So I'm throwing out Spotrac as a valid source for CBT estimates and going off Cots, the Nats have just over 37M in space under the CBT. Now I doubt the Lerner's will spend up to the limit given what happened last season, but there is certainly some room there in which to fill a few more holes.

Online Five Banners

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1021: January 15, 2021, 11:17:21 AM »
Lol, six years for a guy who might have 2 years left. Hard pass.

Nats should only be signing guys to contracts they can trade at the deadline

 Cashman might’ve gotten excited that a starter might play more than 20 games a year

Online Five Banners

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1022: January 15, 2021, 11:26:45 AM »
he likes the NYY, he'll also be old  at the end of that, but we could probably afford it.

While the market is slow this year, the guys who are signing are beating projections.  Schwarber topped his arb projection, Hendriks's AAV is more than Hand would have gotten for one year, McCann signed for a lot more than projected, and DJL was projected at 3 years, $42MM on FG.  that struck me as low, but it shouldn't have been <50% of his contract low.

Yeah, not anticipating a big signing because of this. Maybe can stay as stalking horse to make sure Philly pays top dollar for Realmuto

Offline Lazarchick 31

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1023: January 15, 2021, 01:30:59 PM »
Suzuki back to LAA. Please tell me they have a Realmuto up their sleeve.

Online Sirjesse

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1024: January 15, 2021, 01:33:58 PM »
Good for DJL and NYY. Good for both sides.