Author Topic: 2020-21 Offseason  (Read 2291 times)

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Offline imref

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2020-21 Offseason
« Topic Start: September 24, 2020, 09:47:47 AM »
Well, since we're officially eliminated.

Here's who's under contract for 2021 (via spotrac) and their luxury tax salary:

STARTERS:
Scherzer - $28.7M
Corbin - $23.3M
Strasburg - $35M
Feddde - Arb-eligible
Ross - Arb-eligible(3)
Voth - Pre-arb

RELIEVERS
Hudson -$6M
Harris - $8M
Guerra - Arb-eligible
Harper - Pre-arb
McGowin -Pre-arb
Rainey - Pre-arb
Suero - Pre-arb
Barrett - Arb-elgible (1)
Elias - Arb-eligible (3)
Romero - Pre-arb
Bourque - Pre-arb
Finnegan - Pre-arb
Braymer - Pre-Arb

INF
Kendrick - $6.25M (Mutual option, I assume he's back)
Castro - $6M
Gomes - $6M
Turner - Arb-eligible (3)
Kieboom - Pre-arb
Garcia - Pre-arb

OF:
Robles - -Pre-arb
Soto - Pre-arb
Stevenson - Arb-eligible (1)

OPTIONS (Likely gone):
Thames - $4 M mutual
Sanchez - $2M buyout or $12M salary
Eaton - $1.5M buyout or $10.5M salary

FAs:
Suzuki
Taylor
Thames
Cabrera
Harrison
Holt
Doolittle
Freeman

Payroll: (estimated) $141,491 (includes $21 million in deferred salaries to Strasburg, Wieters, Anibal Sanchez, and Rafael Soriano)

Estimated cap space: $47,727,291

That includes the mutual options. Buying out Sanchez and Eaton, and I assume releasing Barret and Elias will free up some additional space.

So the big need is a catcher.  If we bring back Howie, we need a LH 1B, and a back-up OF, and probably another LH RP, and we have to figure out the plan for 3B.  Assuming Castro is back, and Garcia isn't going back to the minors, that probably leaves Kieboom as the odd-man out (with an INF of:
1B Howie/LHB
2B Castro/Garcia
SS Turner
3B Castro/Garcia
Bench: Holt?

Another big question is if we bring in another corner OF or give Stevenson a shot at the job.

And then there's Zimmerman.  It doesn't look like there's a spot for him.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #1: September 24, 2020, 09:54:38 AM »
Finnegan's not under team control?  This was his 1st year in the majors.  Maybe he burned options already with the As, but we can't just keep him?

edit - cot's indicates 3 options.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #2: September 24, 2020, 09:57:41 AM »
Finnegan's not under team control?  This was his 1st year in the majors.  Maybe he burned options already with the As, but we can't just keep him?

finnegan is under control and is one of the 5 right handed locks for the bullpen:

finnegan, hudson, harris, suero, rainey

Offline DCFan

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #3: September 24, 2020, 09:57:49 AM »
And then there's Zimmerman.  It doesn't look like there's a spot for him.

Unless the DH is permanent or maybe Howie retires.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #4: September 24, 2020, 09:58:58 AM »
But that include all the salaries they will have to pay the arbitration eligible and even per arbitration guys?  Fangraphs shows less room although it’s from spring training.

I believe for luxury tax purposes you count AAV.

You also seem to assume that they will use Ross/Fedde/Voth to fill the 4 and 5 spots. That seems not a good prospect. 

Online hotshot

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #5: September 24, 2020, 10:19:18 AM »
Anyone care to try to read Rizzo's mind going forward?

Based on what he has seen from the past several months of play (and what he can't simply excuse as stemming from this anomaly of a season). 

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #6: September 24, 2020, 10:24:40 AM »
I’m not sure what to think.  They had a team high in the league in batting average but one of the lowest in runs scored. Total lack of power other than Soto. If you plug a guy like Stevenson in RF you don’t address that. 

The starting rotation was one of the worst in the league. Max is clearly going downward. And even with Stras back it’s not strong unless you sign a good number 4.  Also some holes in the pen still.

I’m not sure what they can do.

Offline imref

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #7: September 24, 2020, 10:33:23 AM »
Finnegan's not under team control?  This was his 1st year in the majors.  Maybe he burned options already with the As, but we can't just keep him?

edit - cot's indicates 3 options.

For some reason Sportrac didn't show Finnegan for 2021, he is indeed pre-arb, Braymer too.  I'm fixing the first post

Offline imref

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #8: September 24, 2020, 10:36:49 AM »
I’m not sure what to think.  They had a team high in the league in batting average but one of the lowest in runs scored. Total lack of power other than Soto. If you plug a guy like Stevenson in RF you don’t address that. 

The starting rotation was one of the worst in the league. Max is clearly going downward. And even with Stras back it’s not strong unless you sign a good number 4.  Also some holes in the pen still.

I’m not sure what they can do.

Another power-hitting corner outfielder would surely be nice given the lack of power by our IF hitters.  I'm not sure who's available though. Garcia is probably a 15-20 HR guy next year though.  Marcell Ozuna would fit this team nicely, especially if the NL keeps the DH.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #9: September 24, 2020, 10:37:17 AM »
Turner is going to get about $15 million. Double what he made this year.  I think between the three other starting pitchers listed you are talking about a total of $10 million. So that’s $25 million gone.  Throw in conservatively another $10 million for all the other guys listed and you are up to $35 million.  So not much left to address other needs. 

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #10: September 24, 2020, 10:40:30 AM »
I’m not sure what to think.  They had a team high in the league in batting average but one of the lowest in runs scored. Total lack of power other than Soto. If you plug a guy like Stevenson in RF you don’t address that. 

The starting rotation was one of the worst in the league. Max is clearly going downward. And even with Stras back it’s not strong unless you sign a good number 4.  Also some holes in the pen still.

I’m not sure what they can do.

I think that's why they're trying to see now if Soto can actually handle RF at the major league level.  It allows them to get another power hitter for the other corner, presumably upgrade 1B, and if there's a DH, fill that with another moose.  Possibly the 1B or DH moose is Zimmerman, if he feels like it.  Possibly Kendrick fits one of those slots.  Home runs are easier to find now than they've ever been.  With some bounceback from Robles and maybe some development from Kieboom, it could look a lot better. 

The regression of Scherzer and Corbin isn't as fixable or addressable, especially if Strasburg either can't pitch or can't start.   

Offline imref

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #11: September 24, 2020, 10:41:19 AM »
Looking at the catching FAs for next year, Realmuto is obviously the big fish but we probably can't afford him.  It might make sense to bring back Suzuki on a one year deal if he's up for it. The only other decent option is James McCann

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #12: September 24, 2020, 10:44:20 AM »
Looking at the catching FAs for next year, Realmuto is obviously the big fish but we probably can't afford him.  It might make sense to bring back Suzuki on a one year deal if he's up for it. The only other decent option is James McCann
No McCann is going to the Phillies after the Mets sign Realmuto.

Online Slateman

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #13: September 24, 2020, 11:12:32 AM »
Nats wont get a big free agency signing. Sorry, but with no revenue from fans this year, likely limited fan generated revenue next year, and the Lerners hemorrhaging wealth due to the Covid-induced tank of the commercial real estate market, they arent going to let Rizzo spend.

Payroll will be clamped at about 180 million.

Online hotshot

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #14: September 24, 2020, 11:23:42 AM »
Then there's 3B. Even with Castro, Cabrera, Howie, etc., Kieboom's 2020 performance has got to be very worrying.

I see Josh Donaldson missed all of August with the Twins. Was that another injury? We may have caught a break there.

Offline imref

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #15: September 24, 2020, 11:39:12 AM »
Then there's 3B. Even with Castro, Cabrera, Howie, etc., Kieboom's 2020 performance has got to be very worrying.

I see Josh Donaldson missed all of August with the Twins. Was that another injury? We may have caught a break there.

Garcia's emergence gives us options at 3B. Either Castro or Garcia could play that position.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #16: September 24, 2020, 11:43:59 AM »
Then there's 3B. Even with Castro, Cabrera, Howie, etc., Kieboom's 2020 performance has got to be very worrying.

I see Josh Donaldson missed all of August with the Twins. Was that another injury? We may have caught a break there.

Yeah, Donaldson was hurt.  But he's been pretty useful when not hurt, and he'll be around for the playoffs. 

Kieboom was being asked to hit MLB pitching while playing a new position and without the benefit of live games in the minors.  With Garcia a potential answer at 2B, Castro is around to fill something if Kieboom doesn't do it.  But it's far too early to decide not to give him a shot.  For the easy comparison you provided: at Kieboom's age, Donaldson was in A ball and about to spend the entire next season in AA. 

Offline imref

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #17: September 24, 2020, 12:43:33 PM »
Kieboom was being asked to hit MLB pitching while playing a new position and without the benefit of live games in the minors.  With Garcia a potential answer at 2B, Castro is around to fill something if Kieboom doesn't do it.  But it's far too early to decide not to give him a shot.  For the easy comparison you provided: at Kieboom's age, Donaldson was in A ball and about to spend the entire next season in AA. 

That's fair, even last year in Fresno he only played 10 games at 3rd. 

Offline rugbyflanker

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #18: September 24, 2020, 12:49:13 PM »
Then there's 3B. Even with Castro, Cabrera, Howie, etc., Kieboom's 2020 performance has got to be very worrying.

I see Josh Donaldson missed all of August with the Twins. Was that another injury? We may have caught a break there.

Jake Noll plays 3B. Or 1B.

Offline imref

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #19: September 24, 2020, 12:55:37 PM »
Jake Noll plays 3B. Or 1B.

Is he really anything more than a AAA+ player at this point though?

Online Slateman

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #20: September 24, 2020, 01:05:16 PM »
Then there's 3B. Even with Castro, Cabrera, Howie, etc., Kieboom's 2020 performance has got to be very worrying.

I see Josh Donaldson missed all of August with the Twins. Was that another injury? We may have caught a break there.
Kieboom gets 50-75 games at third before any decisions are made. If Stras, Corbin, and Scherzer are still healthy and productive, then we can talk about a trade for third base.

Offline imref

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #21: September 24, 2020, 01:46:18 PM »
Kieboom gets 50-75 games at third before any decisions are made. If Stras, Corbin, and Scherzer are still healthy and productive, then we can talk about a trade for third base.

So who's the odd-man out then when Castro returns? I can't imagine the team would play Kieboom over Garcia at 3rd.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #22: September 24, 2020, 01:50:05 PM »
So who's the odd-man out then when Castro returns? I can't imagine the team would play Kieboom over Garcia at 3rd.

The team also has holes at 1B and DH, if there is such a thing.  That might be part of the answer.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #23: September 24, 2020, 01:53:17 PM »
these things tend to work themselves out. guys get hurt, suck, etc. with a DH we can rotate guys around.

Online hotshot

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Re: 2020-21 Offseason
« Reply #24: September 24, 2020, 02:29:09 PM »
Thinking on whether Zim will be back in 2021? Is it Covid situation-dependent? I would think so.

If there is no safe and effective vaccine ready to be distributed wholesale until a year from now (as touted by the CDC Director, Redfield), next Spring is gonna still see no fans in the parks and player opt-outs.