Lucas Giolito & Nats Pitching Development

[bluestreak]

Except your examples are completely made up and the example I am citing is actually what happened. I'm not citing a "what if"
And no, I have zero idea what would have happened if they had signed Yelich because 1) I have no idea how he does in DC. 2) If they Dodgers and Yankees, and Astros didn't win last year, why in the world would you make the assumption that the team with the most talent wins.

Very good teams win. You have to be a good team to win. You can say that changing anything has a different result, but what if Giolito pitching lights out in Game 4 and Bryce Harper hits monster home runs, and we end up winning in 5 games at home? See how dumb this is? The crux of this argument is that, somehow, getting a worse player in Eaton, magically made the team better. And that's an impossible statement to even deal with, because by that logic, we should trade Juan Soto right now for someone half as good, and we'll magically be a better team.

Obviously no one is saying that they would trade a WS trophy for 2020 Giolito. But the idea that somehow Eaton as this lynchpin to a WS victory is pretty laughable, especially when we had him for most of the year before and couldn't make the playoffs. Getting a very good third pitcher in the rotation had far more to do with that than Eaton's 107 wRC+. I mean, let's think about this rationally: Are we saying that if we had traded Giolito for Christian Yelich, we wouldn't have won a WS?

[Slateman]

Except your examples are completely made up and the example I am citing is actually what happened. I'm not citing a "what if"
And no, I have zero idea what would have happened if they had signed Yelich because 1) I have no idea how he does in DC. 2) If they Dodgers and Yankees, and Astros didn't win last year, why in the world would you make the assumption that the team with the most talent wins.

Team with the most talent won the previous two years.

Eaton was a below average, corner outfielder. Trying to argue that Eaton is the reason we won the World Series is dumb. If we have Eaton but don't sign Corbin, do we still win the WS? If we don't trade for Gomes, do we still win the WS?

[bluestreak]

Team with the most talent won the previous two years.

Eaton was a below average, corner outfielder. Trying to argue that Eaton is the reason we won the World Series is dumb. If we have Eaton but don't sign Corbin, do we still win the WS? If we don't trade for Gomes, do we still win the WS?

I’m not saying that Eaton is “the reason” we won the WS. I’m saying I am not entirely sure they win if he’s not on the team.
But I’d say the same about Turner or Corbin or Parra or Doolittle, or Robles.

It is unclear to me why you’re arguing this. You’re saying if you take a guy who was above average hitter for 665 AB in the regular season and had an OPS of 1.000 *in the freaking World Series* with 6 RBI out of the lineup your sure that they still win? It’s silly.

[Slateman]

I’m not saying that Eaton is “the reason” we won the WS. I’m saying I am not entirely sure they win if he’s not on the team.
But I’d say the same about Turner or Corbin or Parra or Doolittle, or Robles.

It is unclear to me why you’re arguing this. You’re saying if you take a guy who was above average hitter for 665 AB in the regular season and had an OPS of 1.000 *in the freaking World Series* with 6 RBI out of the lineup your sure that they still win? It’s silly.

I'm more sure about that than saying that Eaton is the reason we won the WS. Trying to pretend that we wouldn't have a similar result with Bryce Harper in RF instead of Eaton is just silly at this point.

[Natsinpwc]

I'm more sure about that than saying that Eaton is the reason we won the WS. Trying to pretend that we wouldn't have a similar result with Bryce Harper in RF instead of Eaton is just silly at this point.

Run-oh. Now they gonna come get you.

[Slateman]

Run-oh. Now they gonna come get you.

At this point people are just deflecting from the issue I've brought up, which is the inability to develop any pitcher and justifying it under "well, we won a world series." As if Eaton was some sort of amazingly crucial piece to that, and there was no way that we could have found a way to replace that production.

Giolito should have gotten you so much more than Eaton. Even a non-injured Eaton. That it wasn't is indicative of a significant issue within the Nationals' organization

[bluestreak]

I'm more sure about that than saying that Eaton is the reason we won the WS. Trying to pretend that we wouldn't have a similar result with Bryce Harper in RF instead of Eaton is just silly at this point.

That's why 10 win Harper got a ring.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

You know, the more interesting thing than the did we give too much for Eaton angle is the how  is it we seem to be unable to identify and develop decent pitching in our organization side of the discussion. Plainly Giolito had the talent, as seems the case with Luzardo, Treinen, and others.  Best guy who spent more than 2 years in our minor leagues now is . . . Fedde? Voth?

[Slateman]

You know, the more interesting thing than the did we give too much for Eaton angle is the how  is it we seem to be unable to identify and develop decent pitching in our organization side of the discussion. Plainly Giolito had the talent, as seems the case with Luzardo, Treinen, and others.  Best guy who spent more than 2 years in our minor leagues now is . . . Fedde? Voth?

We can clearly identify talent. It's the development part that is non-existent

[imref]

You know, the more interesting thing than the did we give too much for Eaton angle is the how  is it we seem to be unable to identify and develop decent pitching in our organization side of the discussion. Plainly Giolito had the talent, as seems the case with Luzardo, Treinen, and others.  Best guy who spent more than 2 years in our minor leagues now is . . . Fedde? Voth?

Stammen? Ross?

Would Milone and Peacock count?  They both reached the majors through our system before being traded.

[imref]

FWIW, Giolito is a UFA after 2022, maybe we bring him back then?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

We can clearly identify talent. It's the development part that is non-existent

yes. It probably is not a drafting issue.

Stammen? Ross?

Would Milone and Peacock count?  They both reached the majors through our system before being traded.

  Stammen?  He came up in 2009.  Ross I think came up within a year of the trade.  Milone and Peacock were pre-2012, dealt for Gio, right?

[Slateman]

yes. It probably is not a drafting issue.
  Stammen?  He came up in 2009.  Ross I think came up within a year of the trade.  Milone and Peacock were pre-2012, dealt for Gio, right?

Ross is a great example. The more time he spent in this organization, the worse he got.

Milone is filler garbage. The Astros are the ones who turned Peacock into something useful.

[Natsinpwc]

Ross is a great example. The more time he spent in this organization, the worse he got.

Milone is filler garbage. The Astros are the ones who turned Peacock into something useful.

So how come Strasburg has become a better pitcher over time?  I tend to think this is a small sample size sort of thing.  The Nats have had some great success with everyday players.  That will probably regress as pitcher development gets better.

[Slateman]

So how come Strasburg has become a better pitcher over time?  I tend to think this is a small sample size sort of thing.  The Nats have had some great success with everyday players.  That will probably regress as pitcher development gets better.

Strasburg is a once in a generation talent. And I dont think he has. His metrics are basically the same since he got called up and I'd argue his 2014 campaign is his best to date.

Rizzo has been here over a decade now. We should be seeing the fruits of those labors.

[Natsinpwc]

Strasburg is a once in a generation talent. And I dont think he has. His metrics are basically the same since he got called up and I'd argue his 2014 campaign is his best to date.

Rizzo has been here over a decade now. We should be seeing the fruits of those labors.

You didn't watch the last couple postseasons he pitched.  He could not have done that in 2014.  In fact he did NOT do it in 2014.  You do see the fruits of Rizzo's labors.  Soto.  Turner.  Robles.  Kieboom.  Garcia.  Would you rather have had him hit on a good pitcher rather than Soto. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Find me a pitcher who spent more than 2 years in our minors after 2010 who has panned out here.

[Natsinpwc]

Find me a pitcher who spent more than 2 years in our minors after 2010 who has panned out here.

Well as noted by others some of them have been traded and worked out later.  If anything drafting seems to be the issue.  How many guys other than Giolito have worked out elsewhere?

[Elvir Ovcina]

Stammen? Ross?

Would Milone and Peacock count?  They both reached the majors through our system before being traded.

Robbie Ray?  Reynaldo Lopez?  Assuming you're excluding Giolito because he was already mentioned. 

Find me a pitcher who spent more than 2 years in our minors after 2010 who has panned out here.

My answer to everything: Roark.  All of '11-'12 and part of '13 in the minors before promotion.  But that's the only one I can think of, and he barely qualifies on two of the three metrics.

[rbw5t]

I unfortunately have to agree with Slate on this.  There are lots of examples of pitchers getting better after they leave here, but hard to think of any getting better.  Stras was universally acknowledged as a special talent, and Max had already won a Cy Young.  The only reason I didn't, and still don't really, mind the Giolito trade is that it seemed like he wasn't going to amount to anything here.  May as well get something for him and let someone else try to fix him.  But that's bc we were already failing to develop him properly. Glad for his sake he got back on track.  And the cupboard seems pretty bare for us pitching wise too.  I think Rizzo drafts and trades very well, and we seem to develop position players just fine, but we've got to do something to improve pitching development all through the minors.

[bluestreak]

The question of if the Nats can’t develop pitchers and whether they should have made the trade are two separate things. If we accept that we can’t develop pitchers then the trade makes even more sense for the Nats, no?

[WashingtonWizards23]

This guy will have a Roger Clemens career. Why did Rizzo trade him for a often injured right fielder?

[KnorrForYourMoney]

This guy will have a Roger Clemens career.

Really?  Well crap, just put him in the Hall now.

[UMDNats]

2 years ago he had the highest ERA of any starter in baseball. He's as likely to blow out his arm by 2022 as he is to make it to the HOF.

[NJ Ave]

2 years ago he had the highest ERA of any starter in baseball. He's as likely to blow out his arm by 2022 as he is to make it to the HOF.

This really is true - out of the top 5 pitchers in 2017 (Sale, Kluber, Scherzer, Strasburg, Severino) only one is healthy right now!