Follow the Prospects: Cole Henry, RHP

[imref]

Drafted in the 2nd round of the 2020 draft, 55th overall, out of LSU
6'4, 211lbs
Completed his sophmore year at LSU before being drafted.
DOB: 7/15/1999, Florence AL

Originally drafted by the Tigers in 2008 in the 38th round.

Highlights via LSUsports.net

2019 Freshman All-SEC
2019 Perfect Game Freshman All-American
2019 NCAA Regional All-Tournament Team
2019 SEC First-Year Academic Honor Roll
SEC Co-Freshman of the Week (April 22, 2019)

MLB Draft: 38th Round in 2018 (Detroit Tigers); 2nd Round in 2020 (No. 55 overall, Washington Nationals)

Has a three-pitch mix of a mid-90s fastball, hard 12-to-6 curveball, and late fading changeup ... his physical attributes, combined with an advanced knowledge of pitching, have allowed him to make a quick adjustment to the college game as a premier power pitcher.

2020 Season
LSU’s No. 1 starter on the mound in each of the four weekends of the shortened season, posting a 2-1 mark and a 1.89 ERA in 19 innings with six walks and 23 strikeouts ... defeated Texas (Feb. 28) at Minute Maid Park in Houston, allowing only two earned runs on four hits in six innings with two walks and 10 strikeouts ... earned the win in LSU’s season opener over Indiana (Feb. 14), firing four scoreless innings while recording no walks and eight strikeouts.

Lastwordonbaseball scouting report:
https://lastwordonbaseball.com/2020/05/15/cole-henry-2020-mlb-draft-profile/

Strengths
RHP Cole Henry has the definition of a live arm when at its best. Back in his senior year of high school Perfect Game graded him with a FB Velocity of 94. The fastball gained 14 MPH after first being recorded by them. These days he consistently throws the heater between 90-94 MPH with movement. He has a quality pitch variety for a 20-year-old with a curveball (55) in the 70s that scouts have graded highly. For a velocity guy, the changeup (50) also has some potential in the mid-80s.

His success in minimal time at the collegiate level is one of the most attractive parts of Henry’s resume. After posting a 3.39 ERA in 58.1 innings with 72 strikeouts his 11.1 SO/9 was enough to earn an All-SEC Freshman spot in 2019. An elbow injury cut his season short, but he came back in a shortened 2020 with phenomenal numbers. Posting a 1.89 ERA over 19 innings with 23 strikeouts and an improved WHIP at 1.105.

Weaknesses
You can’t back down from stating the obvious, the health is a major concern here. Henry’s most recent injury came in the super regionals of 2019 against Florida State. A median nerve problem in his throwing arm forced an early exit for the Tigers’ star pitcher. After experiencing elbow soreness earlier in the year, the team gave him the summer off in 2019. Combine this all with a stress reaction in his upper arm in the fall of 2018 and there is reason to be concerned with his history.

Now, there are positives to look at in terms of his health. Despite the shortened season, his small sample size in 2020 was very encouraging after the way he left the super regionals. Another glass-half-full view of Henry could be that the cancelled college season could be just the rest he needs to fully recover.

They compare him to Kevin Gausman

[DCsOwn]

The Gausman comp strikes me as a little odd because iirc he had major questions about his breaking ball heading into that draft (he had a plus fastball/change up combo though hence the elevated draft position). Henry has a curveball that’s probably going to end up plus and it’s a quality pitch now honestly. Leiter dropped a Burnett comp on it after the pick was made in fact.

[imref]

Dominant yesterday: 6IP, 10Ks, 1H, 0.00 ERA. Just 77 pitches, 54 strikes.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Dominant yesterday: 6IP, 10Ks, 1H, 0.00 ERA. Just 77 pitches, 54 strikes.

he's the one of the pitchers where there's a big split on by the prospect rankers, right?  Everyone recognizes Cavalli and Rutledge are 1 & 2 in some order, but after that isn't there a split on just well Henry's stuff will play and whether he's a rotation candidate or bullpen non-closer?

[imref]

he's the one of the pitchers where there's a big split on by the prospect rankers, right?  Everyone recognizes Cavalli and Rutledge are 1 & 2 in some order, but after that isn't there a split on just well Henry's stuff will play and whether he's a rotation candidate or bullpen non-closer?

Most rankings I've seen have him at #3 in our system, behind Rutledge and Cavelli. Cavelli is considered the stud, the rest are solid but not #1 type guys from what i've seen.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Most rankings I've seen have him at #3 in our system, behind Rutledge and Cavelli. Cavelli is considered the stud, the rest are solid but not #1 type guys from what i've seen.

I think I had thought the same thing too.  We were discussing this because Fangraphs had rated at #8, mostly because they view him as a reliever.   Elvir had this astute observation:

Fangraphs punishes guys who don't have starter potential.  They seem to assume that if your ceiling is as a relief gorilla, the system has a raft of starters ahead of you whose downside is 98-chucking relief gorilla; in other words, your upside.  They don't seem to adjust for actual facts, that not all relief gorillas are equal, or that not every failed starter turns into a 2-pitch fireballer and suddenly finds command. 

Suffice it to say, I find their scouting stuff unimpressive: it's mostly recycled analysis recycling stuff from other people who also haven't seen the players actually play baseball.

[imref]

another good outing - 5 IP, 3 H, 1BB, 8Ks, 1 ER

[zimm_da_kid]

Looking better than Rutledge right now.  Strikeouts and low walks for Henry look encouraging

[imref]

now 1-3, with a 3.00 ERA. 6Ks, 2H, in 3 IP in his most recent start (in which the Blue Rocks totaled one hit).

[imref]

Henry is in West Palm rehabbing an undisclosed injury.  That's two of our top 3 pitching prospects now hurt.

[Smithian]

Henry is in West Palm rehabbing an undisclosed injury.  That's two of our top 3 pitching prospects now hurt.

Way too many positive vibes on here about Luis Garcia and Cade Cavalli. Good to see Henry getting things back to par.

[UMDNats]

i pretty much expect only one of henry/rutledge/cavalli to be a contributor so we're right on track TBH

[Slateman]

i pretty much expect only one of henry/rutledge/cavalli to be a contributor so we're right on track TBH

I expect them to be traded

[UMDNats]

I expect them to be traded

well yeah, for bad players. the rizzo special

[Smithian]

well yeah, for bad players. the rizzo special

In the early 2010's, Rizzo constantly flipped pitching prospects for contributors. I miss that guy.

[Slateman]

Yea, I dont know what UMD is talking about. Rizzo usually wins trades

[Smithian]

Yea, I dont know what UMD is talking about. Rizzo usually wins trades

The only trade I look back at and definitively think "Nats lost" was Josh Willingham. That was bad. Papelbon was bad but Nick Pivetta hasn't done a whole lot, though he is popping this season for the Red Sox.

Every other trade is at least debatable.

[UMDNats]

He was great when we had prospects to spare and it didn't matter that we traded anyone. He was smart to sell off prospects for established players.

But since 2019 he seems to be flailing a little bit and that's the Rizzo I'm concerned about. Lotta Ls in the Rizzo line since the WS. Mostly signings, but I wonder if we're going to continue this facade of "win now" in the next year or so which means dealing prospects again, but this time we're more desperate.

[Slateman]

He was great when we had prospects to spare and it didn't matter that we traded anyone. He was smart to sell off prospects for established players.

But since 2019 he seems to be flailing a little bit and that's the Rizzo I'm concerned about. Lotta Ls in the Rizzo line since the WS. Mostly signings, but I wonder if we're going to continue this facade of "win now" in the next year or so which means dealing prospects again, but this time we're more desperate.

So .... basically, he's been flailing since last year?

[Natsinpwc]

He was great when we had prospects to spare and it didn't matter that we traded anyone. He was smart to sell off prospects for established players.

But since 2019 he seems to be flailing a little bit and that's the Rizzo I'm concerned about. Lotta Ls in the Rizzo line since the WS. Mostly signings, but I wonder if we're going to continue this facade of "win now" in the next year or so which means dealing prospects again, but this time we're more desperate.

Regressing to his mean.  The bigger issue to me seems to be the lack of ability to draft and develop players. 

[welch]

Regressing to his mean.  The bigger issue to me seems to be the lack of ability to draft and develop players. 

Perhaps the Nats have had to draft well down because they have won so many games. Rizzo has taken a swing at some players who fell because they were injured, like Rendon, or, had other questions, like Romero. Rendon was a hit and so was, Giolito, after some years and some work. Some failed.

That seems about the same as other teams, although maybe Rizzo looks for pitchers while other teams spread their choices around.

[welch]

As of June 5, Henry went on the 7-day DL.

[imref]

Cole Henry has been out for about 6 weeks now, Inside the Clubhouse reports that he is dealing with "elbow soreness". I assume we'll find out soon that he had TJ.

[zimm_da_kid]

Cole Henry has been out for about 6 weeks now, Inside the Clubhouse reports that he is dealing with "elbow soreness". I assume we'll find out soon that he had TJ.

I hope it’s that and not hoping he doesn’t need Tommy John and he ends up getting the surgery 3 months after the injury. 

[welch]

https://districtondeck.com/2021/08/05/nationals-cole-henry-wont-let-his-injury-deter-him/?utm_source=google-newsstand&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=google-newsstand

Standing at 6’4 and 215 pounds, Henry is viewed by Nationals General Manager Mike Rizzo as a firm part of the team’s future rotation. With Max Scherzer no longer in D.C., the seeds have been sown for top pitching prospects Josiah Gray, Cade Cavalli, Jackson Rutledge, and Henry to anchor the rotation for years to come.

While he may lack the overwhelming power that some of the other Nat’s top pitching prospects possess, Henry’s pitch location and movement have allowed him to flourish on the mound. He uses a four-pitch mix led by his two-seam and four-seam fastballs that sit around 94 mph. His curveball has impressive depth and has the potential to be an elite secondary offering. Rounding out his pitching arsenal is his changeup that fades well.

When on the mound, Henry has been able to showcase why he entered this season as the National’s number three prospect. But the problem for him has been staying on the mound.  Injuries have plagued Henry early on in his career, dating back to his freshman year at LSU when he suffered a stress reaction in his upper arm, while also battling an elbow issue. Currently, he is sidelined with elbow inflammation, but he already has his eyes set on returning to the mound.

“I have been on my throwing program and everything has been feeling great,” he said. “Everything has been looking great as far as video. I’m feeling like myself again. I just had a blip with my elbow, nothing major. Just a little bit of inflammation and they are being really cautious about it, which is a good thing.”

His injury partly stemmed from his 2020 season being a wash. His COVID diagnosis hindered his ability to start conditioning his body to where it needs to be to handle the rigors of a 120-game season.

Henry, who is back in Jupiter Florida didn’t throw the first four weeks after he arrived. Instead, he was on a shoulder and arm strengthening program and recently has been hammering full-body workouts. The goal has been packing on muscle and making sure another injury setback won’t occur moving forward.

Part of what makes Henry so tough on the mound is his mindset. He is well aware of the strain pitching puts on his body and knows he needs to continue pushing forward.

“It is a part of being a pitcher”, Henry said. Everybody goes through these things, especially as a pitcher. Pitching isn’t really something your body’s made to do, so it’s something that’s really tough on your arm and body. Just trying to get out there every fifth day is tough work, it’s a grind.”

Henry hasn’t allowed the multiple injury setbacks over the last few seasons to affect his performance on the field. In five starts this season, Henry is 1-3, with a 3.00 ERA, and 35 strikeouts, while opponents are hitting a measly .171 against him.

With the Minor League Season slowly winding down, Henry has his eyes set on making his return to the mound in the next few weeks. Last week he was able to throw a bullpen and is set to pitch to live batters come Monday.

“Hopefully, we will be ready to rock in a few weeks, probably close to a month”, Henry said. “I’m ready to get back out there and I’m just excited to see what the rest of the season holds. And once I get back on the mound, just finding that consistency that I had at the beginning of the season. Every game I felt like I was the same pitcher every time. Everything felt in sync and ready to rock.”

With rehab going smoothly, fans should be ecstatic to see Henry back on the hill soon to finish the season.