I agree with your first point. I think they want to see him pitch every 5th day, multiple innings, and build arm strength this year. 140 innings would be just fine, along with a whole season (30 starts). I'd be very, very happy with that. I really don't care about AA, AAA, or MLB for a bit. While you question the fragility, the stuff is what has been playing well so far. Oh, and for the record, he's not pitching relief in the minors. 4 appearances, 4 starts. They're short starts, though. just 13 innings. Extreme BABIP luck, too (,120).
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jeffrey-henry/sa3014446/stats?position=P
FWIW, he has 3 pitches that grade out at 60 per FG. No wonder he dominates when he's out there.
kind of obvious they are managing his innings load and trying to stretch his starts out through the end of the season without an IL stint. I think 100 innings is probably the target. He threw 66 last year in a couple of blocks. A 50% increase and a normal season length is about all you could want.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/05/31/little-by-little-nats-want-prospect-cole-henry-pitch-full-season/The goal, put simply, is to have Henry pitch first full minor league season. After he was drafted in the second round in 2020, there were no minor league games to pitch in because of the coronavirus pandemic. Last year, elbow soreness limited him to 47 innings across 11 appearances. So now Washington is spoon-feeding him innings, feeling that’s better than giving him five- or six-inning starts only to shut him down in August.
...
“We’ve had guys who have been on innings limits in the past, and it’s crazy that when you put a number on a guy it really comes up faster than you would think just through the normal starts," minor league pitching coordinator Sam Narron said. " So we want Cole to be able to finish the year and make all of his starts. It’s going to be a gradual progression, building him through the end of the year where he can continue to pitch, finish the year as opposed to maybe having to stop him at a certain point because he has run out of innings.
"So we want to be judicious early so that he can be strong late.”
Says there's a split in the organization about who is the better pitching prospect, Cavalli or Henry. Of course, TINSTAAPP
