Follow the Prospects: Cade Cavalli, RHP

[Natsinpwc]

Last five starts:
6/10: 5IP, 6H, 4BB, 5Ks
6/4: 7IP, 5H, 2BB, 10Ks
5/28: 7IP, 2H, 1BB, 6Ks
5/22: 5IP, 1H, 3BB, 4Ks
5/17: 0.2IP, 5H, 2BB, 2Ks

He must already be here since he had two 7 inning outings!

[imref]

He must already be here since he had two 7 inning outings!

[imref]

5IP, 5H, R, BB, 4Ks

 2.17 ERA and 1.034 WHIP over his last 5 starts.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

5IP, 5H, R, BB, 4Ks

 2.17 ERA and 1.034 WHIP over his last 5 starts.

Really curious how they handle him.  I think the long-term strategic approach would be to let him go the full year in AAA and even start next season down in AAA.  Don't add him to the roster until late April.  That gets you 6+ years of service time.  I don't think a taste of the majors in August and September adds much.  Let him sustain pitching well in AAA, and let him build more innings.  Same with Henry.  Frankly, the next guy I would conceivably rush would be Theophile.  He has to be rostered before the Rule 5 draft. If he pitches well 2 months at Wilmington (June / July), I bump him up to Harrisburg in August, let him finish the season there, then add him to the Nats roster to end the season.  Only reason not to do that is if he's going to the AFL this off-season.  But the Henry and Theophile discussion is for another thread.  Main point is, unless we are ready to say that Cavalli is ready permanently, I don't think you call him up as a fill in for the bottom of the rotation to just get experience with a bad team losing.  It robs you of control over him for not much gain.  Do that with Adon, who you have already burned.

[imref]

I don't know what his innings limit is this season, but I expect we'll see him up sooner rather than later.

[Slateman]

Really curious how they handle him.  I think the long-term strategic approach would be to let him go the full year in AAA and even start next season down in AAA.  Don't add him to the roster until late April.  That gets you 6+ years of service time.  I don't think a taste of the majors in August and September adds much.  Let him sustain pitching well in AAA, and let him build more innings.  Same with Henry.  Frankly, the next guy I would conceivably rush would be Theophile.  He has to be rostered before the Rule 5 draft. If he pitches well 2 months at Wilmington (June / July), I bump him up to Harrisburg in August, let him finish the season there, then add him to the Nats roster to end the season.  Only reason not to do that is if he's going to the AFL this off-season.  But the Henry and Theophile discussion is for another thread.  Main point is, unless we are ready to say that Cavalli is ready permanently, I don't think you call him up as a fill in for the bottom of the rotation to just get experience with a bad team losing.  It robs you of control over him for not much gain.  Do that with Adon, who you have already burned.

I disagree. I think a taste of the majors in August gives him a baseline to work off in the offseason.  Particularly if he pitches like this through July

AFL would be a waste for him at this point.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't know what his innings limit is this season, but I expect we'll see him up sooner rather than later.

He went 123 innings last year, so I imagine they will bump him up to 140-160 this year and consider him ready for a full season workload if he pitches through September. 

Looking at his game log, he's had 1 brilliant start this season, 5/28, followed by one of his 2 very good starts 6/4.  both 7 inning starts, one with 2 hits, 1 walk, 6 Ks, 0 runs, the next other with 5 hits, 2  walks, 10 Ks, 1 run.  Next best start would be 5/11, 5.2 IP, 4 hits, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 6 Ks, 2 runs (1 ER), or  weird on on 4/30 (5.1 IP shutout, 0 hits, but 3 BB, an HBP, and 1 K) . The rest are 4-5 inning starts, not much to speak of.  WHIP of 1.5 -2.0, just a K or fewer an inning, is not dominating.  He's suppressing homers (3 in 57 IP), but gave up 2 in his second to last start on 6/10. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/steven-cavalli/sa3014421/game-log?position=P&season=

What you want to see before a call up is a string of games like 5/28 or 6/4.  I want 6+ innings, >6 Ks, WHIP < or = 1,  < or = 2 runs.  I want 4 of those in no more than 5 starts.  Then I'd start to think he has no more to learn at AAA.  I want to see domination in AAA before I feed him up to MLB in a lost season.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He went 123 innings last year, so I imagine they will bump him up to 140-160 this year and consider him ready for a full season workload if he pitches through September. 

Looking at his game log, he's had 1 brilliant start this season, 5/28, followed by one of his 2 very good starts 6/4.  both 7 inning starts, one with 2 hits, 1 walk, 6 Ks, 0 runs, the next other with 5 hits, 2  walks, 10 Ks, 1 run.  Next best start would be 5/11, 5.2 IP, 4 hits, 1 BB, 1 HBP, 6 Ks, 2 runs (1 ER), or  weird on on 4/30 (5.1 IP shutout, 0 hits, but 3 BB, an HBP, and 1 K) . The rest are 4-5 inning starts, not much to speak of.  WHIP of 1.5 -2.0, just a K or fewer an inning, is not dominating.  He's suppressing homers (3 in 57 IP), but gave up 2 in his second to last start on 6/10. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/steven-cavalli/sa3014421/game-log?position=P&season=

What you want to see before a call up is a string of games like 5/28 or 6/4.  I want 6+ innings, >6 Ks, WHIP < or = 1,  < or = 2 runs.  I want 4 of those in no more than 5 starts.  Then I'd start to think he has no more to learn at AAA.  I want to see domination in AAA before I feed him up to MLB in a lost season.

In fairness, he's close to the markers I put down in this last post over his last 5 starts.  In the last 28 days, his ERA is 2.17, his WHIP is 1.035, he has 29 Ks in 29 IP, over 5 starts.  A lot of that's driven by 5/28 and 6/4.
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=cavall000cad&type=pgl&year=2022

[Section214]

I disagree. I think a taste of the majors in August gives him a baseline to work off in the offseason.  Particularly if he pitches like this through July

AFL would be a waste for him at this point.

Completely agree. Letting him have a full season in AAA and starting him in AAA is complete overkill. Get him up in August/September and let him fight for a rotation spot in spring training next year.

[imref]

Completely agree. Letting him have a full season in AAA and starting him in AAA is complete overkill. Get him up in August/September and let him fight for a rotation spot in spring training next year.

another decent start and he's likely made his last in AAA baring injury. I think we'll see him very soon. He's almost 24 already, this isn't someone being rushed.

[imref]

Cavalli shut down for a mid season break per Zuck

[welch]

Cavalli shut down for a mid season break per Zuck

And per Post article. Cavalli, Henry, and House: Nats want them to play until the end of the season, so the organization decided on a little vacation for the three.