Author Topic: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.  (Read 154 times)

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Offline aBaltoNat

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The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Topic Start: May 09, 2020, 08:34:31 AM »
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/05/mlb-to-hold-5-round-draft.html

Wow. Owners against the front office. Owners wanted it to save money - each team will save about $1M.

That can't be worth it for the farm systems (even with the closing of all of those MiLB teams.


Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #1: May 09, 2020, 08:58:24 AM »
The union being able to negotiate on the back on non-union members is getting Kafkaesque

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #2: May 09, 2020, 09:54:00 AM »
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/05/mlb-to-hold-5-round-draft.html

Wow. Owners against the front office. Owners wanted it to save money - each team will save about $1M.

That can't be worth it for the farm systems (even with the closing of all of those MiLB teams.
They can sign free agents who want to play in the minors just as other sports do. 

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #3: May 09, 2020, 10:06:45 AM »
They can sign free agents who want to play in the minors just as other sports do. 

For a lot less than they would have had to pay if they drafted them

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #4: May 09, 2020, 10:17:08 AM »
For a lot less than they would have had to pay if they drafted them
How much do guys get in the later rounds now?  It really can't be much.  And of course they can sign guys from latin america even cheaper without a draft. 

Minor league baseball is fun but there are way too many players and teams.  Most of these guys toil away for years at slave wages while they have almost no chance.  So MLB can have have guys for their actual prospects to play against. Most of these guys would be better off just moving on to actual careers as players do in other sports.   Independent leagues will pop and guys can play in those. There will be a few who will make the leap to the actual minor leagues.  It's hard to get very excited about this all when we have 15% unemployment and no idea when professional sports will return.  If MLB hadn't proposed a plan to pare minor leagues before they would need one now. 

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #5: May 09, 2020, 10:23:11 AM »
How much do guys get in the later rounds now?  It really can't be much.  And of course they can sign guys from latin america even cheaper without a draft. 
 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2018-mlb-draft-bonus-pools-pick-values-c269930084

Slot was almost 300k for a 6th rounder down to almost 150k for a 10th rounder- now capped at 20k

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #6: May 09, 2020, 10:56:28 AM »
How much do guys get in the later rounds now?  It really can't be much.  And of course they can sign guys from latin america even cheaper without a draft. 

Minor league baseball is fun but there are way too many players and teams.  Most of these guys toil away for years at slave wages while they have almost no chance.  So MLB can have have guys for their actual prospects to play against. Most of these guys would be better off just moving on to actual careers as players do in other sports.   Independent leagues will pop and guys can play in those. There will be a few who will make the leap to the actual minor leagues.  It's hard to get very excited about this all when we have 15% unemployment and no idea when professional sports will return.  If MLB hadn't proposed a plan to pare minor leagues before they would need one now.

A fair amount.  I know a dude who was drafted in the 8th round a few years back and got ~200k.  He didn't make it in baseball and used a bunch of that money for grad school.  He was in a little bit of an unusual position - college guys in those rounds often get pushed to way under slot because they have no leverage - but you're definitely badly hurting somewhere around 150 guys; even 10-round slots values are around $150k. 

Largely those don't reflect real signing values as you either have college guys signing under slot so teams can use the bonus money to bribe high school guys to skip college or the high school guys getting the bribes.   The biggest effect here is going to be on HS guys who aren't good enough to go in the first 5 rounds but might be in the future and college seniors who were going to be drafted in the 6-10th round range (despite not getting a senior season).  Both sets of guys will be trying to play college baseball next year rather than taking a $20k bonus. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #7: May 09, 2020, 11:03:24 AM »
I wonder what this does to the classic signability issues draftee.  The guy who has commitments to college or the guy who wants top of the first round money?  Can you afford to draft a guy who is a tough sign?  Also, you lose some of the money from rounds 6-10 that you could spread to others, and you probably don't see a college senior drafted in the first 3 rounds to sign underslot to reallocate his money to others who fall (or to add to higher picks).

Edit - Elvir hit on some of these points while I was writing.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #8: May 09, 2020, 11:13:25 AM »
They eliminated 35 rounds and you guys are only talking about 5 of them. Does that mean you were all in favor of cutting it from 40 rounds to 10 and just think they went too far? 

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #9: May 09, 2020, 11:30:37 AM »
They eliminated 35 rounds and you guys are only talking about 5 of them. Does that mean you were all in favor of cutting it from 40 rounds to 10 and just think they went too far?

No.  Those five rounds are just the most stark.  Look at the bonus values for even rounds in the ~30 area (see here: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/draft/) and notice a few dudes getting six figures to pass up college. 

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #10: May 09, 2020, 11:39:22 AM »
No.  Those five rounds are just the most stark.  Look at the bonus values for even rounds in the ~30 area (see here: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/draft/) and notice a few dudes getting six figures to pass up college.
MLB has decided they don’t want to spend their money that way anymore.  I don’t think there is any turning back after the pandemic. Life moves on. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #11: May 09, 2020, 11:41:02 AM »
They eliminated 35 rounds and you guys are only talking about 5 of them. Does that mean you were all in favor of cutting it from 40 rounds to 10 and just think they went too far? 
No.  Those five rounds are just the most stark.  Look at the bonus values for even rounds in the ~30 area (see here: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/draft/) and notice a few dudes getting six figures to pass up college. 
I'm with Elvir on the later rounds.  That's when guys fall, teams take a chance on a guy with a college commitment, etc... 

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #12: May 09, 2020, 11:44:33 AM »
MLB has decided they don’t want to spend their money that way anymore.  I don’t think there is any turning back after the pandemic. Life moves on.

MLB owners have decided that, having no fans to squeeze for their last penny, they need to find someone else to squeeze to make sure their second yacht's berthing fees at St. Bart's are covered.  I have zero sympathy for them.  crap like this - and trying to cut 40 MiLB teams out of existence - is an enormous disincentive to spend any money on MLB for me.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #13: May 09, 2020, 11:47:01 AM »
MLB owners have decided that, having no fans to squeeze for their last penny, they need to find someone else to squeeze to make sure their second yacht's berthing fees at St. Bart's are covered.  I have zero sympathy for them.  crap like this - and trying to cut 40 MiLB teams out of existence - is an enormous disincentive to spend any money on MLB for me.
Understand your position but I think for the average fan it’s a non issue.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #14: May 09, 2020, 11:51:09 AM »
Understand your position but I think for the average fan it’s a non issue.

Perhaps, but the greedier they look during what is shaping up to be a long-term horrible economic mess the worse it will be for them. 

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #15: May 09, 2020, 11:55:04 AM »
Perhaps, but the greedier they look during what is shaping up to be a long-term horrible economic mess the worse it will be for them.
All the teams in all sports will have to offer discounts to get fans to come back.  Even after it’s safe. 

Offline varoadking

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #16: May 09, 2020, 11:59:07 AM »
Understand your position but I think for the average fan it’s a non issue.

Agreed.  People still buy Nike products...like this is gonna bother them?


Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #17: May 09, 2020, 12:05:35 PM »
Understand your position but I think for the average fan it’s a non issue.

Retreating from milb markets isn’t exactly going to help a sport increasingly dependent on a small subset of greying fans grow

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #18: May 09, 2020, 12:14:32 PM »
All the teams in all sports will have to offer discounts to get fans to come back.  Even after it’s safe.

Definitely.  This is a rounding error in that calculus, which is part of why it's weird.  You're screwing over some guys in their late teens and early 20s for the sake of negotiating positioning with a union in which they're not even members.  It's not primarily a fan issue. 

Agreed.  People still buy Nike products...like this is gonna bother them?

Agreed again.  Just stating my personal perspective.


Retreating from milb markets isn’t exactly going to help a sport increasingly dependent on a small subset of greying fans grow

And this as well. 

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #19: May 09, 2020, 12:15:32 PM »
Retreating from milb markets isn’t exactly going to help a sport increasingly dependent on a small subset of greying fans grow
This year will be a good test because no MILB teams will be playing. They can’t afford to do so without fans. 


Offline bluestreak

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #20: May 09, 2020, 12:22:32 PM »
Agreed.  People still buy Nike products...like this is gonna bother them?

What did Nike do? Did I miss something?

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #21: May 09, 2020, 12:25:07 PM »
What did Nike do? Did I miss something?

Child labor.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #22: May 09, 2020, 12:26:14 PM »
Most of the teams being cut hardly drew any fans. I believe the average attendance in the Appalachian League last years excluding the Pulaski Yankees was about 1000 per game. I looked it up and the Florida Fire Frogs drew 327 per game last year in Orlando.

The biggest problem MLB has is that there are just so many teams each year that are just not competitive.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #23: May 09, 2020, 01:07:44 PM »
Most of the teams being cut hardly drew any fans. I believe the average attendance in the Appalachian League last years excluding the Pulaski Yankees was about 1000 per game. I looked it up and the Florida Fire Frogs drew 327 per game last year in Orlando.

The biggest problem MLB has is that there are just so many teams each year that are just not competitive.

The short season and Rookie levels are generally in small towns and the budgets don't require them to draw a ton of fans.  And the Keys led the Carolina League in attendance last year and have been first or second for the last decade, so attendance clearly isn't the only driving factor here.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: The draft was shortened to 5 rounds.
« Reply #24: May 09, 2020, 01:12:01 PM »
The short season and Rookie levels are generally in small towns and the budgets don't require them to draw a ton of fans.  And the Keys led the Carolina League in attendance last year and have been first or second for the last decade, so attendance clearly isn't the only driving factor here.
Those small towns will have bigger problems than losing a MILB team.