So will there be a 2020 season?

[bluestreak]

Case in point...

https://twitter.com/craigmish/status/1289555525714157568?s=21

There have been several Cardinals players that have tested positive for Covid-19. Per sources. More than five.

[bluestreak]

The other issue with this is that we are getting to the point where the integrity of the results are coming into serious question. Let’s take the Marlins. MLB wants them to play Monday. To do this they will need to play multiple people who have zero business playing Major League Baseball.
So teams that play them now get a huge advantage over teams that play them in September. 

Or take Soto. He has missed 12 percent of the season because of what looks like a false positive test. Since we know false positive will definitely happen, we are basically determining who can play by random lottery. And this is in the first week...

[imref]

The other issue with this is that we are getting to the point where the integrity of the results are coming into serious question. Let’s take the Marlins. MLB wants them to play Monday. To do this they will need to play multiple people who have zero business playing Major League Baseball.
So teams that play them now get a huge advantage over teams that play them in September.  Or take Soto. He has missed 12 percent of the season because of what looks like a false positive test. Since we know false positive will definitely happen, we are basically determining who can play by random lottery. And this is in the first week...

It does seem as if it's becoming increasingly pointless to play.   

[RobDibblesGhost]

Needless to say, Cards-Brewers are postponed again today.

[bluestreak]

I’m sure the Cardinals got COVID the right way, as opposed to the dirty Marlins.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The other issue with this is that we are getting to the point where the integrity of the results are coming into serious question. Let’s take the Marlins. MLB wants them to play Monday. To do this they will need to play multiple people who have zero business playing Major League Baseball.

Well, we're playing Emilio bonifacio, so I guess it evens out.

But seriously, my sense is that there just is not enough of an emphasis on setting clear rules and adhering to them.  Frankly, I think on teams with strong veteran leadership, you are more likely to see players sticking to the discipline of minimizing interacting.  I assume Soto is a false positive, and the Nats with all the oldsters like Max and Howie and Stras are going to stick to strict distancing and other precautions.  Frankly, I think players with young kids probably are more likely to stick to the discipline than players who are single.  That said, let's see what is up with the Cardinals.  All kidding aside, I'm a little surprised that they look like the second worst performer because they seem to have high organizational standards and veteran leadership. 

[Duke of Earl]

I don't see why everyone seems to want to write of Soto's positive as a simple false positive.  False positives are rare. Someone here said false negative are 15% and false positive, 10%. I don't think that's correct, I think false positives are closer to 2%.  However, many of the false positive are people who had the virus (asymptomatic) and are over it.  In that case, some of the virus remains in your system but you are no longer infected nor contagious. What they should do is test him for antibodies.

[bluestreak]

I don't see why everyone seems to want to write of Soto's positive as a simple false positive.  False positives are rare. Someone here said false negative are 15% and false positive, 10%. I don't think that's correct, I think false positives are closer to 2%.  However, many of the false positive are people who had the virus (asymptomatic) and are over it.  In that case, some of the virus remains in your system but you are no longer infected nor contagious. What they should do is test him for antibodies.

Well if you have one test, and then multiple negative tests immediately afterward, I would be much more likely to call it a false positive. And 2 percent isn’t exactly rare. Assuming they are testing all the players every two days, every team should expect a false positive 1-2 times per week.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't see why everyone seems to want to write of Soto's positive as a simple false positive.  False positives are rare. Someone here said false negative are 15% and false positive, 10%. I don't think that's correct, I think false positives are closer to 2%.  However, many of the false positive are people who had the virus (asymptomatic) and are over it.  In that case, some of the virus remains in your system but you are no longer infected nor contagious. What they should do is test him for antibodies.

he had clean tests before using the same method, and clean tests after apparently using multiple methods.   i don't see the idea that he had it for a while and was getting over it when he popped positive as being consistent with that testing pattern, but I can't say I'm familiar with the false positive / false negative rates.  I do buy what Bluestreak is saying in that, if they are testing 1800 players (60 man pools for 30 teams) plus coaches and clubhouse staff every two days, there are going to be a fair number of false positives even at the 2% rate you suggest.

[Duke of Earl]

   i don't see the idea that he had it for a while and was getting over it when he popped positive as being consistent with that testing pattern,

The difference is this.  When you recover from the virus, (inactive) traces of it can stay with you for a long time -- weeks. Those will be detected at a much lower rate than when you are infected.  When it is detected as such, it's considered a false positive (because you don't really have the virus) and (I think) those comprise the majority of false positives.

Anyway, my point is this. I think that after a positive test, for a player with no symptoms, he should be given an antibody test. If that's positive, he's good to go.  Antibody test results can be same-day.

[Elvir Ovcina]

The difference is this.  When you recover from the virus, (inactive) traces of it can stay with you for a long time -- weeks. Those will be detected at a much lower rate than when you are infected.  When it is detected as such, it's considered a false positive (because you don't really have the virus) and (I think) those comprise the majority of false positives.

Anyway, my point is this. I think that after a positive test, for a player with no symptoms, he should be given an antibody test. If that's positive, he's good to go.  Antibody test results can be same-day.

Won't some currently-infected asymptomatic folks also test positive for antibodies?  Antibodies start developing before you clear an infection.  I realize you'd have to be pretty late in the course for them to show up because your body takes a while to make them, but I don't think a positive antibody test necessarily means you've cleared the active infection.   

[bluestreak]

The difference is this.  When you recover from the virus, (inactive) traces of it can stay with you for a long time -- weeks. Those will be detected at a much lower rate than when you are infected.  When it is detected as such, it's considered a false positive (because you don't really have the virus) and (I think) those comprise the majority of false positives.

Anyway, my point is this. I think that after a positive test, for a player with no symptoms, he should be given an antibody test. If that's positive, he's good to go.  Antibody test results can be same-day.

What you describe is not a false positive. That’s a true positive because it is detecting virus. A false positive is when the test says vita particles are present when there are none.
Antibodies take up to up to 3 weeks for the body to produce so it’s not a really good way to manage this in real time.

[Natsinpwc]

What you describe is not a false positive. That’s a true positive because it is detecting virus. A false positive is when the test says vita particles are present when there are none.
Antibodies take up to up to 3 weeks for the body to produce so it’s not a really good way to manage this in real time.

Thanks for that.

Aren’t all the percentages of false tests just rough estimates at this point?

[bluestreak]

Thanks for that.

Aren’t all the percentages of false tests just rough estimates at this point?

So there is a gold standard test. I’m exactly sure what it is but it’s probably a PCR that amplifies viral DNA. This is not feasible for a screening test. So they take a test and compare it to the gold standard. and see how often the agree. That’s how you get the false positive/negative rates.

[Slateman]

I don't see why everyone seems to want to write of Soto's positive as a simple false positive.  False positives are rare. Someone here said false negative are 15% and false positive, 10%. I don't think that's correct, I think false positives are closer to 2%.  However, many of the false positive are people who had the virus (asymptomatic) and are over it.  In that case, some of the virus remains in your system but you are no longer infected nor contagious. What they should do is test him for antibodies.

False positives/negatives are not "rare"

[Duke of Earl]

What you describe is not a false positive. That’s a true positive because it is detecting virus. A false positive is when the test says vita particles are present when there are none.
Antibodies take up to up to 3 weeks for the body to produce so it’s not a really good way to manage this in real time.

Technically, not a false positive.  It's functionally a false-positive.  It's positive, and you don't have (active) virus, which is really what you care about. 

So it takes 3 weeks to produce antibodies. But in many cases the three weeks have passed.  Not every case, but no protocol is going to be perfect.

[RobDibblesGhost]

Cards-Brewers doubleheader tomorrow reportedly postponed. Apparently some of the Cards players went to a casino.

[bluestreak]

Technically, not a false positive.  It's functionally a false-positive.  It's positive, and you don't have (active) virus, which is really what you care about. 

So it takes 3 weeks to produce antibodies. But in many cases the three weeks have passed.  Not every case, but no protocol is going to be perfect.

I don’t think we know for sure if you were actually infected and have virus particles if you’re infectious or not.

[Mathguy]

Didn't we have a poll earlier this year where each of us predicted how if the season would start and how long ?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Cards-Brewers doubleheader tomorrow reportedly postponed. Apparently some of the Cards players went to a casino.

strip clubs and casinos. This would have worked if these jackasses tried.

[bluestreak]

Didn't we have a poll earlier this year where each of us predicted how if the season would start and how long ?

https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=38636.0

[rileyn]

Seems like we are divided into two groups. One that really wants baseball at all costs and one that thinks it’s dumb to try to do this when there has been little progress in controlling the disease.
60 percent of a team testing positive on the first weekend is not a bump in the road. It’s an indication that this is folly.

There doesn't have to be wildly opposite camps as you position it above.  That's what is ravishing our country.  It's far left or far right.  The middle gets left wondering what happened to common causes and common sense?  Yes, the Marlins F'd up, and apparently the Cardinals did too, but what about everybody else. 

I'm not smarter than you.  I don't know you.  I know I love baseball and I appreciate that they are trying to play, no matter the motives are.  I also understand the stacked odds against successfully pulling it off and the risks involved.  It's imperfect.  It's life.  Play ball.

[blue911]

strip clubs and casinos. This would have worked if these jackasses tried.

You would think that the employees of these places would have to be tested. And that there would be positive tests. But I haven’t heard of any or that the places were closed for a sanitized cleaning.

[Natsinpwc]

You would think that the employees of these places would have to be tested. And that there would be positive tests. But I haven’t heard of any or that the places were closed for a sanitized cleaning.

Lap dance buddy?  Have you had your temperature taken miss? 

[blue911]

Lap dance buddy?  Have you had your temperature taken miss?

Fortunately I keep a laser thermometer on me at all times.