Author Topic: So will there be a 2020 season?  (Read 3309 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 54622
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #250: May 22, 2020, 04:17:23 PM »
So we are Defending World Series Champs 2 years running right? Is that how that works?
Yes

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 16804
Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #251: May 22, 2020, 04:28:19 PM »
So we are Defending World Series Champs 2 years running right? Is that how that works?
Who else if not the Nats?

Offline Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 16804
Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #252: May 22, 2020, 04:29:48 PM »
The current CBA expires after the 2021 season...
May not be able to attend a game for quite a while.

Online imref

  • Posts: 31759
  • Redemption
Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #253: May 22, 2020, 04:43:26 PM »
Florida just lifted restrictions on all youth sports.

Offline Duke of Earl

  • Posts: 435
Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #254: May 22, 2020, 04:54:52 PM »
Florida just lifted restrictions on all youth sports.
What can you say, it's Florida, they're idiots.  Going to be alot of dead youths.

Offline Duke of Earl

  • Posts: 435
Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #255: May 22, 2020, 05:08:48 PM »
I heard a testing dicussion today that mentioned a 45 minute test that is substantially more accurate
And substantially more expensive, and substantially less available, probably.  If it is acceptably accurate (I don 't know what acceptable would be: 2% false negative?),  widely available, and not prohibitively expensive AND they test EVERY DAY, that works.  But they're talking about testing twice a week. That doesn't work.

They're going to need roughly 60,000 tests perhaps.  Test cost currently range from $50 to $200, so let's say $100.  So that's $5M.   Is MLB willing to spend that much on testing?  Maybe.

But if the test is in short supply, 60,000 test for baseball is going to piss off alot of people trying to get a test, especially people who don't care about baseball.


Offline wj73

  • Posts: 659
Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #256: May 22, 2020, 07:10:46 PM »
Duke raises some really good points. When you start looking closely at logistics, it just doesn’t work. And we haven’t even discussed clubhouse attendants, umpires, coaches, maintenance staff, etc.


Sadly, I think VaRK is right. There will be no baseball in 2020.

Offline MtPleasantNatsFan

  • Posts: 69
Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #257: May 23, 2020, 09:21:42 AM »
Does it seem strange that very little attention is paid to the false-negative rate for the coronavirus test — 30% or higher. (That’s for the quick test, but the two-to-three day test isn’t going to be of any use for MLB testing.)  Thus if 100 people all of whom are infected get tested, 30 results will be negative.  Hopefully MLB will instruct players that if they have symptoms, don’t show up.  So it’s only the asymptomatic false-negatives that would be of concern, but 50% of those infected have no symptoms.  So, a 15% rate for asymptomatic false negative.   For a random population of 750, how many will carry the virus at any given time. I don’t know the answer, but 10 seems like a conservative guess. So on a full-schedule day, statistically, one infected player (actually 1.5) will walk into a clubhouse.  They’re talking about testing twice a week, so that player  will have  three days or so to infect  half the clubhouse (and perhaps an opposing teams clubhouse as well).  At some point MLB is going to do the math.  There won’t be a season.

Feel free to check my math, there certainly could be an error here somewhere.

Sabremetrics has taken an unexpected turn

Offline MtPleasantNatsFan

  • Posts: 69
Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #258: May 23, 2020, 09:27:14 AM »
MTPleasant - maybe your connection meant no fans at Nats Park and not no games?  Makes sense.

Sorry, my bad, that’s kind of what they meant.  That there would be an announcement about mid-size gatherings and above not happening this year.

I’ve been reading a lot about MLB decisions but then heard that the DC govt isn’t going to let it happen, so...




Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 20565
Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #259: May 23, 2020, 09:46:11 AM »
Milb looks like it’s not going to happen, it will be interesting to see what teams do with guys they anticipate making the majors- if you’re playing service time games, how do you handle it with not affiliates to stash a guy in

Offline Copecwby20

  • Posts: 2286
Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #260: May 24, 2020, 09:57:57 AM »
What can you say, it's Florida, they're idiots.  Going to be alot of dead youths.


Good, have you met kids? They are terrible.