Does it seem strange that very little attention is paid to the false-negative rate for the coronavirus test — 30% or higher. (That’s for the quick test, but the two-to-three day test isn’t going to be of any use for MLB testing.) Thus if 100 people all of whom are infected get tested, 30 results will be negative. Hopefully MLB will instruct players that if they have symptoms, don’t show up. So it’s only the asymptomatic false-negatives that would be of concern, but 50% of those infected have no symptoms. So, a 15% rate for asymptomatic false negative. For a random population of 750, how many will carry the virus at any given time. I don’t know the answer, but 10 seems like a conservative guess. So on a full-schedule day, statistically, one infected player (actually 1.5) will walk into a clubhouse. They’re talking about testing twice a week, so that player will have three days or so to infect half the clubhouse (and perhaps an opposing teams clubhouse as well). At some point MLB is going to do the math. There won’t be a season.
Feel free to check my math, there certainly could be an error here somewhere.