Author Topic: So will there be a 2020 season?  (Read 3723 times)

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Online Slateman

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #250: May 22, 2020, 04:17:23 PM »
So we are Defending World Series Champs 2 years running right? Is that how that works?
Yes

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #251: May 22, 2020, 04:28:19 PM »
So we are Defending World Series Champs 2 years running right? Is that how that works?
Who else if not the Nats?

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #252: May 22, 2020, 04:29:48 PM »
The current CBA expires after the 2021 season...
May not be able to attend a game for quite a while.

Offline imref

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #253: May 22, 2020, 04:43:26 PM »
Florida just lifted restrictions on all youth sports.

Offline Duke of Earl

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #254: May 22, 2020, 04:54:52 PM »
Florida just lifted restrictions on all youth sports.
What can you say, it's Florida, they're idiots.  Going to be alot of dead youths.

Offline Duke of Earl

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #255: May 22, 2020, 05:08:48 PM »
I heard a testing dicussion today that mentioned a 45 minute test that is substantially more accurate
And substantially more expensive, and substantially less available, probably.  If it is acceptably accurate (I don 't know what acceptable would be: 2% false negative?),  widely available, and not prohibitively expensive AND they test EVERY DAY, that works.  But they're talking about testing twice a week. That doesn't work.

They're going to need roughly 60,000 tests perhaps.  Test cost currently range from $50 to $200, so let's say $100.  So that's $5M.   Is MLB willing to spend that much on testing?  Maybe.

But if the test is in short supply, 60,000 test for baseball is going to piss off alot of people trying to get a test, especially people who don't care about baseball.


Offline wj73

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #256: May 22, 2020, 07:10:46 PM »
Duke raises some really good points. When you start looking closely at logistics, it just doesn’t work. And we haven’t even discussed clubhouse attendants, umpires, coaches, maintenance staff, etc.


Sadly, I think VaRK is right. There will be no baseball in 2020.

Offline MtPleasantNatsFan

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #257: May 23, 2020, 09:21:42 AM »
Does it seem strange that very little attention is paid to the false-negative rate for the coronavirus test — 30% or higher. (That’s for the quick test, but the two-to-three day test isn’t going to be of any use for MLB testing.)  Thus if 100 people all of whom are infected get tested, 30 results will be negative.  Hopefully MLB will instruct players that if they have symptoms, don’t show up.  So it’s only the asymptomatic false-negatives that would be of concern, but 50% of those infected have no symptoms.  So, a 15% rate for asymptomatic false negative.   For a random population of 750, how many will carry the virus at any given time. I don’t know the answer, but 10 seems like a conservative guess. So on a full-schedule day, statistically, one infected player (actually 1.5) will walk into a clubhouse.  They’re talking about testing twice a week, so that player  will have  three days or so to infect  half the clubhouse (and perhaps an opposing teams clubhouse as well).  At some point MLB is going to do the math.  There won’t be a season.

Feel free to check my math, there certainly could be an error here somewhere.

Sabremetrics has taken an unexpected turn

Offline MtPleasantNatsFan

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #258: May 23, 2020, 09:27:14 AM »
MTPleasant - maybe your connection meant no fans at Nats Park and not no games?  Makes sense.

Sorry, my bad, that’s kind of what they meant.  That there would be an announcement about mid-size gatherings and above not happening this year.

I’ve been reading a lot about MLB decisions but then heard that the DC govt isn’t going to let it happen, so...




Online HalfSmokes

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #259: May 23, 2020, 09:46:11 AM »
Milb looks like it’s not going to happen, it will be interesting to see what teams do with guys they anticipate making the majors- if you’re playing service time games, how do you handle it with not affiliates to stash a guy in

Offline Copecwby20

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #260: May 24, 2020, 09:57:57 AM »
What can you say, it's Florida, they're idiots.  Going to be alot of dead youths.


Good, have you met kids? They are terrible.

Online Slateman

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Online HalfSmokes

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #262: May 26, 2020, 06:54:34 PM »
Anyone want to take bets on the first club to default if there is no revenue this year?

Offline skippy1999

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #263: May 26, 2020, 07:17:11 PM »
I’m watching the Cubs game 7 WS victory on espn. It’s making me unbelievably sad to think there will be no baseball this year :(

Offline UMDNats

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #264: May 26, 2020, 07:54:11 PM »
Anyone want to take bets on the first club to default if there is no revenue this year?

I think revenue sharing will keep teams afloat for the year. Regardless, player spending is going way down the next few years.

I feel for my old co-workers. No layoffs yet but they're coming.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #265: May 26, 2020, 08:54:55 PM »
Anyone want to take bets on the first club to default if there is no revenue this year?
I'll take a stab. What team is provably the most leveraged? Marlins were a relatively recent sale and dependent on revenue sharing. Creditors plus a decline in revenue to share. It might be them.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #266: May 26, 2020, 09:00:45 PM »
I’ll go Dodgers- huge sale price and a relatively recent sale

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #267: Yesterday at 08:45:07 AM »
if the owners are serious with this, I don't see the players caving

Quote
Potential salary cuts in MLB plan, sources tell
@JesseRogersESPN
 and me:

Full-year   Proposal

$563.5K   $262K
$1M           $434K
$2M          $736K
$5M          $1.64M
$10M        $2.95M
$15M        $4.05M
$20M       $5.15M
$25M       $6.05M
$30M       $6.95M
$35M       $7.84M

https://mobile.twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1265422054880358402

Offline nfotiu

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #268: Yesterday at 08:49:08 AM »
I’ll go Dodgers- huge sale price and a relatively recent sale
I assume they are still getting their $300 million from Spectrum and avoiding 220 million in payroll.  This is probably a ridiculously profitable year for them.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #269: Yesterday at 08:53:43 AM »
if the owners are serious with this, I don't see the players caving

https://mobile.twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1265422054880358402
It’s a smart proposal by MLB. The lower salary guys keep a bigger percentage of their pay.   The biggest salaries get the least percentage wise.  Allows them to paint the richer players as the bad guys. 

They might as well just give up negotiations now and let the other sports take the stage.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #270: Yesterday at 08:53:51 AM »
I assume they are still getting their $300 million from Spectrum and avoiding 220 million in payroll.  This is probably a ridiculously profitable year for them.

Why would they still get the money from spectrum, without content, I'm guessing they're in breach

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #271: Yesterday at 08:54:54 AM »
It’s a smart proposal by MLB. The lower salary guys keep a bigger percentage of their pay.   The biggest salaries get the least percentage wise.  Allows them to paint the richer players as the bad guys. 

They might as well just give up negotiations now and let the other sports take the stage.

I think it's something you throw out there to win a PR battle when you know the season is lost, I'm probably wrong though

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #272: Yesterday at 09:00:40 AM »
You know the owners were getting ready for a strike after 2021.  This just moved it up.  How many players are ready for zero income after making the big money?  Putting up their houses for sale in the midst of a recession is not optimal.

Online HalfSmokes

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #273: Yesterday at 09:03:18 AM »
You know the owners were getting ready for a strike after 2021.  This just moved it up.  How many players are ready for zero income after making the big money?  Putting up their houses for sale in the midst of a recession is not optimal.

it depends on how big the MLBPA strike fund is. Ideally players should be prepared to go to zero income after any season until they sign a long term deal and have enough saved after they sign the deal, who knows how many are though.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: So will there be a 2020 season?
« Reply #274: Yesterday at 09:18:43 AM »
Why would they still get the money from spectrum, without content, I'm guessing they're in breach
From what I've read, the RSNs are still all paying the teams, and still collecting the carriage fees from the cable/sat/streaming companies.   That is the reason given why cable co's aren't giving any rebates or discounts to customers who are still paying $15-20/month (some of which is even called out as a mandatory regional sports fee).