Author Topic: The Weather: 2020 Edition  (Read 1979 times)

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Online Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #150: August 25, 2020, 03:30:50 PM »
most people will survive too, those who don't probably were going to die soon already. 

How dare the government shut down all these businesses!
Luckily many will ignore and stay exercising their right to freedom. 

Online DCFan

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #151: August 25, 2020, 03:41:30 PM »
Luckily many will ignore and stay exercising their right to freedom. 

Exercising their God given right to life, liberty and the pursuit of the shoreline as they're being swept out to sea.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #152: August 25, 2020, 04:15:24 PM »
28th Amendment - "Freedom to Drown"

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #153: August 25, 2020, 04:50:02 PM »
I see on FBN that Galveston County and other TX coastal communities are being asked to evacuate immediately.
it's a hoax!  Galveston is a freakin' peninsula! If they can't deal with a storm, then maybe they shouldn't live there.

Actually, that latter point might not be so dumb.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #154: August 25, 2020, 04:50:58 PM »
Oh, and how long before I break this off an move it?

Online imref

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #155: August 25, 2020, 05:07:18 PM »
Oh, and how long before I break this off an move it?

:hysterical:

Latest NHC update keeps max winds at 115 MPH at landfall but tracking a bit more toward Texas.  From there it turns north and heads east, sitting over D.C. on Saturday as a tropical depression.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #156: August 25, 2020, 05:12:49 PM »
Beaumont / Port Arthur is between Lake Charles and Houston.  That area had flooding almost as bad as Houston from Harvey.  I suspect you'll not see the extraordinary flooding this time if the storm doesn't just squat over the area.

Online DCFan

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #157: August 25, 2020, 05:17:03 PM »
it's a hoax!

Wrong thread. This is about hurricanes not covid. :mg:

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #158: August 25, 2020, 08:15:51 PM »
Beaumont / Port Arthur is between Lake Charles and Houston.  That area had flooding almost as bad as Houston from Harvey.  I suspect you'll not see the extraordinary flooding this time if the storm doesn't just squat over the area.
actually the storm surge is supposed to be 8' - 13' in border area of TX-LA.

There's like 1.5 MM BBL/day capacity in Port Arthur and Beaumont that is shutting down.  Fortunately, there's a lot of slack capacity that can ramp up if there's refinery damage.

Online imref

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #159: August 26, 2020, 08:31:30 AM »
Laura now projected to hit western LA as a Cat-4 storm.  The NHC also says there's a chance it reforms off the mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.

The NHC is also predicting a 10-15' storm surge up to 40 miles inland.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #160: August 26, 2020, 09:09:18 AM »
Laura now projected to hit western LA as a Cat-4 storm.  The NHC also says there's a chance it reforms off the mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.
Sounds a bit  like Camille.  Camille was a cat 5 and struck on the other side of Louisiana, but it weakened, swung up to Ohio and out to see where it reintensified into a tropical storm.

Online imref

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #161: August 26, 2020, 11:24:03 AM »
Very Katrina-esque:

Quote
National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate coastline.

Offline Mathguy

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #162: August 26, 2020, 11:24:41 AM »
Let's hope TWC sends Jim Cantore to Lake Charles.  He's enough to divert any weather event

Laura now projected to hit western LA as a Cat-4 storm.  The NHC also says there's a chance it reforms off the mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.

The NHC is also predicting a 10-15' storm surge up to 40 miles inland.

Offline skippy1999

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #163: August 26, 2020, 02:17:19 PM »
Very Katrina-esque:

My thoughts too, LA and MS gonna get hammered again. 

Online imref

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #164: August 26, 2020, 03:27:41 PM »
Cat-4 and still strengthening.  Sustained winds of 140 MPH in the core.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #165: August 26, 2020, 03:32:55 PM »
Saturday rain total estimates for here keep going up

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #166: August 26, 2020, 03:37:49 PM »
Cat-4 and still strengthening.  Sustained winds of 140 MPH in the core.
Sounds a bit  like Camille.  Camille was a cat 5 and struck on the other side of Louisiana, but it weakened, swung up to Ohio and out to see where it reintensified into a tropical storm.
Calcasieu has a recently-closed refinery.  Port Arthur has the biggest single refinery in the country (Motiva). 

In Harvey, you had so much rain it collapsed the roofs of oil tanks.  I don't think this will be a similar rain event from what I've seen (it's projected to move, not linger).  With this storm surge, you hope that the berms around the facilities aren't overtopped.

Online imref

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #167: August 26, 2020, 03:39:03 PM »
Calcasieu has a recently-closed refinery.  Port Arthur has the biggest single refinery in the country (Motiva). 

In Harvey, you had so much rain it collapsed the roofs of oil tanks.  I don't think this will be a similar rain event from what I've seen (it's projected to move, not linger).  With this storm surge, you hope that the berms around the facilities aren't overtopped.

yeah, the rain projections are in the 5-10" range.  Most of the damage should be confined to the coasts from wind/storm surge as it is a fast-moving storm.

Online imref

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #168: August 26, 2020, 07:34:13 PM »
sustained winds up to 150-155, borderline cat-5

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #169: August 26, 2020, 07:37:56 PM »
sustained winds up to 150-155, borderline cat-5
It's a good thing global warming is a fraud.  These storms would be really bad.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #170: August 26, 2020, 07:48:35 PM »
sustained winds up to 150-155, borderline cat-5
I'll skip the Camille comparison since the point was made. Rita was same track but smaller and caused $12BB damage.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #171: August 26, 2020, 07:51:42 PM »
I'll skip the Camille comparison since the point was made. Rita was same track but smaller and caused $12BB damage.
Not good.

Online DCFan

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #172: August 26, 2020, 08:23:47 PM »
It's a good thing global warming is a fraud.  These storms would be really bad.

Hoax is the operative word.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #173: August 26, 2020, 09:52:06 PM »
Hoax = Inconvenient truth?

Offline Mathguy

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Re: The Weather: 2020 Edition
« Reply #174: August 26, 2020, 09:55:03 PM »
Hoax is a copout for not believing reliable statistical data

Hoax = Inconvenient truth?