So you didn't watch the video you posted?
SS has ball decides not to throw home and instead throws 3rd since it's a sure out. Had Soto stood on 2nd, SS would throw home since it's the only play.
Is the odds low? Sure. But he has a chance. He has no chance since he didn't throw home.
This is not hard to understand.
Also SS pumps and throws 3rd as Rendon crosses plate.
Watch the video you posted. Zero % chance of getting Rendon if they don't throw home. 100% Rendon scores if they throw 3rd. What? You asking for better odds?
Timestamp 5:46 - Shortstop catches throw.
Timestamp 5:47 - Rendon is crossing the plate.
There was no play at home because Rendon was safe by a mile. Nothing Soto did on the base paths after he got to first base affected Anthony Rendon scoring.