"I Don't Know" - Third Base

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

It may be ugly, but, if you take out signing Donaldson because you just can't stand the thought of giving him 4 years at > $25MM a year, and you can't come up with a talent match for Bryant, then perhaps the best way to handle 3d and maybe 2d is to wait a bit for guys wanting to get well with a 1 year deal or who are likely to give you league average performance out of those positions.  Cabrera perhaps as the veteran part of a
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with Kieboom at 2d, maybe Gennett as has been mentioned, Holt for a couple of years at $4MM AAV to give you a lefty multiposition guy who could split time at 3d with maybe Howie, etc... Try to squeeze more production out of 1st with lefty
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bat to split with RZ.  Dozier is even worth a look if he comes at $5MM rather than $9MM.  This is not so much the "go cheap" approach as it is to not just spend money like Nats Park is Afghanistan.  Keep a bit of powder dry, look for other teams salary dumps at the trade deadline, give Kieboom a chance to run with a position.

I agree with your thinking. 

[Slateman]

even last year, he had  a 99 wRC+, OK defense, 20 HR, and 1.7 WAR.

No

[Slateman]

Trade for Betts. Play him at second base.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Trade for Betts. Play him at second base.

Trade what exactly? 

[UMDNats]

There's gotta be a creative way to solve this problem with a platoon or using a couple utility guys.

[GNatsNoMore]

The Lerners can afford Donaldson.  He is the ONLY substitute for Rendon on the FA market.  KISS.   

Luxury tax can be reset in 2021.

Can't believe the talk about Todd Frazier.  He's ersatz.

Someone on MLB network just commented that Nationals are hotly pursuing Donaldson, and probably are the team most likely to give him a 4-year deal.

[GNatsNoMore]

At this point, I think Robles has to step up if this team wants to compete again. Hes one guy capable of becoming a top/middle of the order bat.

Like you say, no one player is replacing Tony. But development from Robles, maybe even a 10 fingered Trea, and solid play from Kieboom could go a long way.

I expect Robles and Turner to develop/improve in 2020, assuming they both stay healthy.  Boswell made a few interesting comparisons in his column today.  First, he said that Robles' "rookie year at 22 was better than Rendon's at 23".     Second, he claimed that "through his age 26 season, Turner has been better than Rendon too."       Not sure which metrics Boswell is using, but that's what he says.  The main point of the column seems to be to cheer everyone up a little bit about losing Rendon.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/anthony-rendon-and-the-nats-made-sensible-decisions-why-does-it-feel-so-lousy/2019/12/12/74ce201a-1d24-11ea-b4c1-fd0d91b60d9e_story.html

Maybe if we can sign Donaldson too, coupled with improvements from Robles and Turner, the Nats' overall offensive production in 2020 could be roughly equal to that of 2019.

[UMDNats]

I don't know what else we can really expect Turner to develop in. He just had an .850 OPS season as a SS and while his defense was just OK, he had a very solid 2.4 WAR. The fluke injury cost him at least a 3-WAR season so I'm not sure what else we can see from him unless he goes from the "really good player" level to "this guy is elite" level. 4-WAR shortstops are rare and Turner is right there, so maybe he can get there.

Robles, however, has lots of untapped potential offensively. He was objectively pretty bad at the dish this year but because he was so good in CF he was passable. Even if he only tops out at a 100 OPS+ player, with his D that's a 4-5 WAR player.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Trade for Betts. Play him at second base.

don't push excessive commitments to Donaldson when Betts is a FA next year and Eaton's contract is up.  You gonna push a $40MM AAV contract at someone, it is Betts.  where does he play?  Anywhere he wants.

[UMDNats]

I don't even know what a Mookie trade package would look like. You're buying one year, unless you pay a huge extension immediately upon the trade. The guy averages like 7 WAR a season. Just unreal.

I would be absolutely OK with passing on Donaldson, getting some dudes to play 3B and 2B, let Kieboom try to claim a spot, and going all-in on Betts next year with tons of cash to throw around. Turner-Betts-Soto is, uh, a great 1-2-3.

[Slateman]

don't push excessive commitments to Donaldson when Betts is a FA next year and Eaton's contract is up.  You gonna push a $40MM AAV contract at someone, it is Betts.  where does he play?  Anywhere he wants.

I'm pretty sure Betts wont want deferred money any more than any Rendon and Harper.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

oh, and I'm guessing about 8 other teams will kick the tires on Betts. 

[Slateman]

oh, and I'm guessing about 8 other teams will kick the tires on Betts. 

We'll probably just sign Robbie Ray to a 6 year, 170 million dollar deal

[hohoho]

I expect Robles and Turner to develop/improve in 2020, assuming they both stay healthy.  Boswell made a few interesting comparisons in his column today.  First, he said that Robles' "rookie year at 22 was better than Rendon's at 23".     Second, he claimed that "through his age 26 season, Turner has been better than Rendon too."       Not sure which metrics Boswell is using, but that's what he says.  The main point of the column seems to be to cheer everyone up a little bit about losing Rendon.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/anthony-rendon-and-the-nats-made-sensible-decisions-why-does-it-feel-so-lousy/2019/12/12/74ce201a-1d24-11ea-b4c1-fd0d91b60d9e_story.html

Maybe if we can sign Donaldson too, coupled with improvements from Robles and Turner, the Nats' overall offensive production in 2020 could be roughly equal to that of 2019.

Boswell is a cheerleader.
If Robles, Soto and Turner improve, the rest are over 31 and likely to regress. And that is before losing Rendon. So no, offensive production will likely worsen.

[bluestreak]

We'll probably just sign Robbie Ray to a 6 year, 170 million dollar deal

I mean signing former Diamondbacks pitchers has worked pretty well so far for the Nats...

[Natsinpwc]

Just sign Donaldson for the 4 years. He can be moved to 1B whenever needed. The Nats have no long term answer there. They need another power bat in the lineup which the likes of Kieboom or Cabrera or others will not provide. And then you light candles to hope he can stay healthy.

[Slateman]

You guys realize that Donaldson hitting .211 at first base isnt any better than hitting that at third, right?

[Natsinpwc]

You guys realize that Donaldson hitting .211 at first base isnt any better than hitting that at third, right?

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/donaljo02.shtml

.278 career batting average. .878 career OPS. I will take my chances as apparently will Rizzo.

[Slateman]

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/donaljo02.shtml

.278 career batting average. .878 career OPS. I will take my chances as apparently will Rizzo.

Lol, career numbers of a dude who is 34.

He just posted full season lows in wRC+, ISO, and OPS compares to the last five seasons.

[Natsinpwc]

Lol, career numbers of a dude who is 34.

He just posted full season lows in wRC+, ISO, and OPS compares to the last five seasons.

You don’t know how to read stats. His 2019 season was much better offensively than 2018. He also was healthy and played many more games than in 2017-18. In fact he played almost as many games in 2019 as in 2017-18 combined. Finalist for comeback player of the year. So yea I’m sure it was his worst year. Doh.

https://www.mlbplayers.com/2019-comeback-player-finalists

[RD]

Here's an article that talks a bit about what Donaldson may look like the next few years.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-to-expect-from-josh-donaldson/

I dont like the idea of 4 years, because there is potential for a big drop off after year 1 or 2. But, theres also a chance he continues to be productive through the deal.

It's not my favorite move, but I'm good on Donaldson the next 2 years. A move to 1st as soon as possible may help him stretch his success out a bit. If we go Kieboom at 2nd this year with Donaldson at 3rd, then shift Kieboom to 3rd and Donaldson to 1st, when Garcia is ready in a year or 2.

I'd probably prefer other options but I dont think Donaldson is going to just fall off the cliff and be a .211 hitter near the end of the deal. He will surely decline, but I suppose there is risk in every big money, multi year deal.

[Slateman]

You don’t know how to read stats. His 2019 season was much better offensively than 2018. He also was healthy and played many more games than in 2017-18. In fact he played almost as many games in 2019 as in 2017-18 combined. Finalist for comeback player of the year. So yea I’m sure it was his worst year. Doh.

https://www.mlbplayers.com/2019-comeback-player-finalists

I said full season. He was hurt in 2018. Compare 2019 with 2015, 2016, and 2017. He's declined across the board.

[Natsinpwc]

I said full season. He was hurt in 2018. Compare 2019 with 2015, 2016, and 2017. He's declined across the board.

He only played 113 games in 2017.

I will take the numbers he put up last year. It’s better than what you will get from Kieboom.

[Natsinpwc]

Here's an article that talks a bit about what Donaldson may look like the next few years.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-to-expect-from-josh-donaldson/

I dont like the idea of 4 years, because there is potential for a big drop off after year 1 or 2. But, theres also a chance he continues to be productive through the deal.

It's not my favorite move, but I'm good on Donaldson the next 2 years. A move to 1st as soon as possible may help him stretch his success out a bit. If we go Kieboom at 2nd this year with Donaldson at 3rd, then shift Kieboom to 3rd and Donaldson to 1st, when Garcia is ready in a year or 2.

I'd probably prefer other options but I dont think Donaldson is going to just fall off the cliff and be a .211 hitter near the end of the deal. He will surely decline, but I suppose there is risk in every big money, multi year deal.

No no. Slate said he will be a .211 hitter. He is always right.

[Slateman]

He only played 113 games in 2017.

I will take the numbers he put up last year. It’s better than what you will get from Kieboom.

And you know this .... how?