MERRY STRASMAS: STRAS IS BACK

[bluestreak]

Based on what ?

Based on literally every baseball contract that has ever been executed. And the fact that he obviously wanted to stay.

[Mathguy]

Sorry, but I would have to see some data.  Stras has gone from Top draft pick to TJ surgery and back to a top 10 pitcher.  So he's much more than a thrower.

Based on literally every baseball contract that has ever been executed. And the fact that he obviously wanted to stay.

[imref]

Cole just got 9/$324

[Mathguy]

This quote from Rizzo really says it all:

 “We know his character. We know his work ethic, and we know that these type of dollars, these type of years are not going to affect the way he prepares, the way he competes, and the way he cares about the name on the front of the jersey more than the name on the back”

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Meh overpaid 

For a guy with the Wizards in his board name and Wall in his avatar, I'm not sure you can talk about overpaid, but I suppose you know something about injury risk.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Cole just got 9/$324

actually, I think Slate or Elvir nailed this one.  I don't think either of those guys want to be confused with each other.

He's 2 years younger than Stras, so this basically goes out to the same age at $1MM more AAV to set a record.

[Slateman]

actually, I think Slate or Elvir nailed this one.  I don't think either of those guys want to be confused with each other.

He's 2 years younger than Stras, so this basically goes out to the same age at $1MM more AAV to set a record.

I'm pretty sure it was me, but I only put those numbers up after the Stras deal. I had always thought Cole would get to 300, but I thought it would be over 10 years.

[The Chief]

https://twitter.com/mlbonfox/status/1204231916855017472?s=21

[imref]

I wonder if de Grom holds out next season for a renegotiation of his contract.

[GNatsNoMore]

https://twitter.com/mlbonfox/status/1204231916855017472?s=21

[imref]

Tom Verducci:

You can argue the merits of doling out seven-year contracts to pitchers as they age through their 30s, but there is no denying their impact if you want to win the World Series just once.  The past four World Series have included eight of the 10 most expensive pitchers in history, and none of the 10 most expensive position players (Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, Manny Machado, Alex Rodriguez, Nolan Arenado, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto).

[DCFan]

Tom Verducci:

Wow! There's food for thought.

[imref]

Wow! There's food for thought.

yeah, that's why Rizzo's a GM.

[nfotiu]

Tom Verducci:

There definitely seems to be something to it.   You look at the list of the high paid position players and none of them are on teams that really have much of a chance next year either.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/

It's hard to exactly grasp why, but teams who spend a lot on FA pitchers are usually good, and teams that spend a lot on FA position players are usually not good.

[DCFan]

It's hard to exactly grasp why, but teams who spend a lot on FA pitchers are usually good, and teams that spend a lot on FA position players are usually not good.

Good pitching is almost always better than good hitting.

[imref]

Good pitching is almost always better than good hitting.

yep.  Good pitching gives you a chance to win every game, even if you can't score very much.

[Slateman]

There definitely seems to be something to it.   You look at the list of the high paid position players and none of them are on teams that really have much of a chance next year either.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/

It's hard to exactly grasp why, but teams who spend a lot on FA pitchers are usually good, and teams that spend a lot on FA position players are usually not good.

Like the Red Sox?

[Slateman]

yep.  Good pitching gives you a chance to win every game, even if you can't score very much.

Yea, just ask deGrom

[imref]

Yea, just ask deGrom

and that's why wins are a useless pitching stat.

[Slateman]

and that's why wins are a useless pitching stat.

I was referring to his team's wins

[NJ Ave]

Like the Red Sox?

Red Sox pitchers held the Dodgers to a .550 OPS in the World Series, and only had a .690 OPS themselves. I'd say their pitching mattered in the end. And two of the games were won by their $217 million man.

[nfotiu]

Red Sox pitchers held the Dodgers to a .550 OPS in the World Series, and only had a .690 OPS themselves. I'd say their pitching mattered in the end. And two of the games were won by their $217 million man.

The Red Sox would have done well to have spent less on position players and more on pitching last year too.  They scored 130 more runs than the Rays, but finished 12 games behind them.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I'm pretty sure it was me, but I only put those numbers up after the Stras deal. I had always thought Cole would get to 300, but I thought it would be over 10 years.

I also got the money pretty close (also after the Stras deal), but I thought it was going to get there in a slightly different way:

Leaving the overstatement aside, there's a kernel of a point there.  Cole's numbers the last couple years are indeed significantly better than Strasburg's.  No shame in that.  But the real thing here is age and injury history.  I think if you put the TJ and 2 years of age onto Cole's side, Strasburg gets more money. 

But as it is, I think the gap is going to be way bigger than $20-30 million.  Cole probably gets at least one extra year at ~5 million more AAV, so the gap is likely more like $75 million.  That's mostly because someone is going to give Cole a stupidly large contract.

But I'll give it to Slate, he's the best.  He literally laughed at someone who predicted the AAV of Strasburg's contract.  Which then turned to be the exact amount Strasburg got. That takes some prognostication skills.

[imref]

I was referring to his team's wins

he's giving the team a chance to win every fifth day, that doesn't necessarily mean they will. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Tom Verducci:

The past four World Series have included eight of the 10 most expensive pitchers in history, and none of the 10 most expensive position players (Mike Trout, Bryce Harper Soto-lite, Giancarlo Stanton, Manny Machado, Alex Rodriguez, Nolan Arenado, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, Joey Votto).