Author Topic: Astros stealing signs - But Dusty to the Rescue  (Read 27205 times)

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Offline bluestreak

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #325: January 14, 2020, 08:55:33 AM »
Stupidity?

Yes. That’s the main adjective that we use to describe the 2017-2019 Astros: Stupid

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #326: January 14, 2020, 08:59:26 AM »
The Astros overall did hit better on the road in 2017. Does that mean anything? Maybe they would have hit even worse at home without the cheating. Why would the most analytically driven team in baseball have continued to do this, even through the postseason, if it conferred no benefit?

Maybe there was a benefit? Why do we assume that the team, who has far more data than we do, would engage in this if there was no benefit?

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #327: January 14, 2020, 09:01:08 AM »
Maybe there was a benefit? Why do we assume that the team, who has far more data than we do, would engage in this if there was no benefit?

That’s what I was getting at.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #328: January 14, 2020, 09:10:09 AM »
How convinced is everyone that it is a home only thing?  The report says this all ended after 2017, yet based on whistling, I can tell you with about 80% accuracy if a fastball or not is coming over the first few innings of game 1 of the WS.  In fact, the only time the whistles disappear are the first few pitches when a runner gets to second.

Offline DCFan

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #329: January 14, 2020, 09:40:15 AM »
It's time to move this thread to the out of town scoreboard since it doesn't pertain to the Nats.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #330: January 14, 2020, 09:45:33 AM »
My favorite part of every cheating scandal is when the people who went to extreme lengths to cheat then claim that the cheating didn't help.

Just guys setting up a bunch of TVs in the dugout, monitoring every pitch of every game, banging on trash cans and whistling to hitters to signal pitches...just for a lark everybody!


oh, another JCA reference to a song, but I think every opponent ought to play Todd Rungren's "I don't want to work, I want to bang on the drums all day" in honor of taking the lazy way to success and their use of percussion.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #331: January 14, 2020, 09:47:10 AM »
It's time to move this thread to the out of town scoreboard since it doesn't pertain to the Nats.
thought about it, but since it was the WS opponent, I lean towards keeping it here for now.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #332: January 14, 2020, 10:17:21 AM »
MLB is so damn happy we won this year. They dodged an enormous bullet. Would have been 3 straight years of the WS champ cheating.

The more I think about it, the more I find the punishment totally light. I get he can't suspend players, and a lifetime ban was never going to happen for Hinch or Luhlow. It just seems like he told Crane that he'll come in "light" and the Astros have to fire them and then they get the good PR of crapcanning the cheaters and getting to say "it was just a few bad eggs!" while they continue on being jerks.

Also AJ Hinch's "aw shucks, you know, I didn't approve of it, but there was nothing I could do!" defense is so completely laughable. What a douchebag.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #333: January 14, 2020, 10:20:34 AM »
Also it's good to know that the "man, you know, Correa and Bregman seem like a real dicks" wasn't just because we were playing them in the WS and, in fact, they're cheating dicks!

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #334: January 14, 2020, 10:53:26 AM »
Your statistics don't mean anything when the data is not representative of the population.  In other words, Bregman's performance over the past 3 years can not be compared with other MLB players.

Sure it can.  Just because part of a data set is contaminated doesn't mean the whole thing is junk, as long as you can reliably segment out the junk.  Fortunately that's doable here. Just look only at his road games.  In 2019, he hit .315 with a 1.109 OPS and 25 homers in 76 road games.   That's an OPS+ OF 194. 

That's fine.  Many MVP voters don't vote for pitchers under any circumstance and are not that reliable anyway.   I'm not at all convinced WAR properly values starting pitchers vs position players, mostly because I don't think it properly accounts for who the realistic replacement is and the rarity of a true ace pitcher.

This might not be a discussion for this thread, but it's an interesting one.  I agree with you partially - replacement level is crap.  I actually think it's off by more for position players than pitchers, though.  The simple reason for that is that replacement level pitchers get yanked early, and some of their damage is limited by having some of their innings taken by above-replacement relievers.  Measuring replacement level for a pitcher is extremely challenging when the use of true AAAA pitchers is fundamentally different than that of an average MLB pitcher.  That's not the same for position players: if you're running Wilmer Difo out there, he's out there killing you all day every day. 

The valuation of truly elite players is also an interesting point.  My instinct is to side with the status quo as to the regular season, but it's with a huge caveat: the equation completely flips when you get to the playoffs because ace pitchers are starting 25% (or even higher) of games rather than 20.   By the way, the reason for siding with the status quo in the regular season is essentially the same as above: the regression to the mean caused by relief pitchers in the innings the starters don't pitch.  That's not truly a WAR point, as WAR is a counting stat in a sense - more good innings, higher WAR.  But it's an overall-value issue, which is really what the MVP award is about.    But like you, I don't really trust WAR for pitchers - I also hate FIP, but that's another discussion. 

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #335: January 14, 2020, 11:08:55 AM »
I'm surprised Alex Cora is still employed today. You'd think the Red Sox would want to pull that band-aid off ASAP and get the players accustomed to their new manager in spring training.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #336: January 14, 2020, 11:21:31 AM »
I'm surprised Alex Cora is still employed today. You'd think the Red Sox would want to pull that band-aid off ASAP and get the players accustomed to their new manager in spring training.
they do have a replacement lined up, reportedly, in Ron Roenicke, their bench coach.  It'd help them if the thing was done by Spring training, but they may not want to fire Cora altogether if somehow the punishment is lighter than what Hinch got.

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #337: January 14, 2020, 11:26:31 AM »
they do have a replacement lined up, reportedly, in Ron Roenicke, their bench coach.  It'd help them if the thing was done by Spring training, but they may not want to fire Cora altogether if somehow the punishment is lighter than what Hinch got.
I'd imagine they'd wait to see if the punishment can get them out of paying him.
https://www.foxbusiness.com/sports/fired-astros-manager-aj-hinch-suspension-salary-contract

Offline Duke of Earl

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #338: January 14, 2020, 11:31:58 AM »
they do have a replacement lined up, reportedly, in Ron Roenicke, their bench coach.  It'd help them if the thing was done by Spring training, but they may not want to fire Cora altogether if somehow the punishment is lighter than what Hinch got.
Cora's contract is through 2021.  If they fire him, how do they get out of the contract?  He could be fired for cause, but only after there is some evidence that there was cheating by the Red Sox in 2018. But it may be months before the report is out, and if they're inclined to fire him they aren't going to wait much longer.

Hinch too: he has some years left on his contract.  How do the Astros get out of that?

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #339: January 14, 2020, 11:43:14 AM »
I would guess with Hinch they pay it off rather than risk all the rest of their dirty laundry getting aired if he decides to go after the balance, same with Ludlow

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #340: January 14, 2020, 11:46:44 AM »
How convinced is everyone that it is a home only thing?  The report says this all ended after 2017, yet based on whistling, I can tell you with about 80% accuracy if a fastball or not is coming over the first few innings of game 1 of the WS.  In fact, the only time the whistles disappear are the first few pitches when a runner gets to second.

I'm not entirely convinced, but it would have to have used a different method than the 2017 cheating.  That used a video feed from CF that supposedly only went to the Astros.  What I'm not understanding is why you couldn't use the replay feeds from the same angle to do the same thing - for HBPs to be reviewable, those angles have to be available to the teams. 

But as for the playoffs, it would be mighty hard to do it that way because MLB has monitors in the replay rooms in the playoffs. 

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #341: January 14, 2020, 12:58:20 PM »
https://twitter.com/faridyu/status/1216877422823559169?s=21

Quote
If the Dodgers are planning a 2017 World Series parade, I would love to join! So if that is in the works, can someone make a Yu Garbage Jersey for me?

Offline Slateman

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #342: January 14, 2020, 01:18:13 PM »
I'm surprised Alex Cora is still employed today. You'd think the Red Sox would want to pull that band-aid off ASAP and get the players accustomed to their new manager in spring training.
They are probably waiting until the investigation is concluded.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #343: January 14, 2020, 01:21:20 PM »
All the reports are that Cora is getting more than Hinch. I can’t imagine any team waiting for two years, even if you’ve got Casey Stengel coming back.

Offline skippy1999

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #344: January 14, 2020, 02:08:09 PM »
Maybe the Sox have to wait to not make it look like they're admitting guilt? I don't know, other than that I don't get why he's not been fired yet I really don't, not like he's the genius everyone thought he'd be given last year's team performance. 

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #345: January 14, 2020, 02:37:17 PM »
funny.  I was among the many pounding the table to bring in Cora either instead of Dusty (with no experience, mind you) or Davey.  Lots of people here were disappointed when he signed with the Sox when our slot was open, leaving us with Davey.  Looks like we dodged a bullet. 

Online hotshot

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #346: January 14, 2020, 02:40:53 PM »
https://twitter.com/faridyu/status/1216877422823559169?s=21
Didn't the Dodgers lose 2 or 3 games at home in that Series? Yankees-Houston was bigger deal with each team winning every home game.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #347: January 14, 2020, 02:43:16 PM »
it's so funny to me that alex cora is this mastermind cheater. guy was a totally nondescript/meh player for 14 years. and yet here he is, ruining baseball!

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #348: January 14, 2020, 02:59:27 PM »
it's so funny to me that alex cora is this mastermind cheater. guy was a totally nondescript/meh player for 14 years. and yet here he is, ruining baseball!

A decade and a half of sitting on the bench is pretty good training for figuring out how to steal signs.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Astros stealing signs
« Reply #349: January 14, 2020, 03:11:59 PM »
Didn't the Dodgers lose 2 or 3 games at home in that Series? Yankees-Houston was bigger deal with each team winning every home game.

They lost two games at home and 2 games on road. Darvish got shelled in game 3. I think he gave up 4 runs in second.

I don’t think we can assume that because the cheating was detected in Houston that it was limited to Houston.