Author Topic: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason  (Read 33332 times)

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Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1900: February 14, 2020, 02:49:07 PM »
No. Based on what some posters said about the pen blowing games last year it was another 20-30 games. Nats should have won 120 games.  :hysterical:

Yep, that awesome bullpen that was unusable in the playoffs

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1901: February 14, 2020, 02:53:40 PM »
Yep, that awesome bullpen that was unusable in the playoffs
I’m not saying they didn’t blow games but the way some posters here counted things was unbelievable. Like other bullpens didn’t give up any runs. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1902: February 14, 2020, 03:01:39 PM »
Zuck tweets that Rizzo says 3b is Kieboom’s job to lose and that they will not be trading for a 3b
It really seems that the Nats don't play games with Super 2 status.  The only major guy I think they may have held back was Stras.  Not JZ, not Harper, not Rendon, I don't think Turner, not Soto, and not Robles.  If Kieboom's ready, he starts from the get go.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1903: February 14, 2020, 03:03:54 PM »
I’m not saying they didn’t blow games but the way some posters here counted things was unbelievable. Like other bullpens didn’t give up any runs. 
It was historically bad for much of the season. Tied for second in blown saves. While 20-30 is drastic, I think it's safe to assume that an even average bullpen would have been worth 8-10 wins last season

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1904: February 14, 2020, 03:15:13 PM »
It was historically bad for much of the season. Tied for second in blown saves. While 20-30 is drastic, I think it's safe to assume that an even average bullpen would have been worth 8-10 wins last season
Agree.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1905: February 14, 2020, 03:17:08 PM »
I think the difference between

Rendon, Dozier, Matt Adams/Zimm/Howie, 2019 Robles and the 2019 bullpen

and

Kieboom, Castro/AssCab/Castro, Thames/Zimm, 2020 Robles and 2020 bullpen

could be pretty minimal, which would set us up for the playoffs again. The offense concerns me because if Soto goes down we will crater completely. Last year when both he and Anthony were banged up it was rough.

Offline imref

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1906: February 14, 2020, 03:18:39 PM »
I think the difference between

Rendon, Dozier, Matt Adams/Zimm/Howie, 2019 Robles and the 2019 bullpen

and

Kieboom, Castro/AssCab/Castro, Thames/Zimm, 2020 Robles and 2020 bullpen

could be pretty minimal, which would set us up for the playoffs again. The offense concerns me because if Soto goes down we will crater completely. Last year when both he and Anthony were banged up it was rough.

yeah, it's going to be interesting to see how teams pitch to Soto early on.  If he's getting the Harper/Bonds treatment of constantly getting a free pass to 1st, and we can't capitalize on it, it's going to be a long season.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1907: February 14, 2020, 03:46:32 PM »
I was driving around yesterday and was thinking what upgraded performances could we hope for to make up for Rendons output offensively. I believe Turner and Robles are the key with Castro playing a secondary role. Kendrick, Cabrerra will regress due to age and playing time and Eaton and Soto will stay the same.
I expect more out of Thames and RZ at 1st. 

Rendon was a Fangraphs 7 win player last year, and 3d overall  was 6.6. 

Last year, the Nats had 2.9 WAR from 1st, 2.6 from 2d, 2.8 from SS, and 2.5 from CF.  That's 10.8, I think.  They project Kiebrera for 2.0, so there's 5+ to make up from 1st, 2d, SS, and CF. They project Thamerman 1.6, 1.7 from Castdrick, 4.2 from Turner, and 3.4 from Robles, for 10.9 WAR.  Still 5 short, before you get into Soto (they have him projected 0.9 improvement).  I expect maybe they are low balling the right side in their projections, so add a win there.  Still 3 short.  Kieboom, if he's above average his rookie year, say 2.5 - 3 WAR, pretty much wipes out the difference (2 WAR) before accounting for bullpen improvement and maybe 2 more months out of Scherzer.



Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1908: February 14, 2020, 03:48:13 PM »
I think the difference between

Rendon, Dozier, Matt Adams/Zimm/Howie, 2019 Robles and the 2019 bullpen

and

Kieboom, Castro/AssCab/Castro, Thames/Zimm, 2020 Robles and 2020 bullpen

could be pretty minimal, which would set us up for the playoffs again. The offense concerns me because if Soto goes down we will crater completely. Last year when both he and Anthony were banged up it was rough.
With health, you'll get another month + of Turner with a good hand, and hopefully Max doesn't miss 2 months.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1909: February 14, 2020, 04:01:22 PM »
With health, you'll get another month + of Turner with a good hand, and hopefully Max doesn't miss 2 months.
True but it’s likey others will be injured. In addition to Zimm who is always a lock for the DL.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1910: February 14, 2020, 04:02:06 PM »
yeah, it's going to be interesting to see how teams pitch to Soto early on.  If he's getting the Harper/Bonds treatment of constantly getting a free pass to 1st, and we can't capitalize on it, it's going to be a long season.

If that happens, I expect the Nats to be savvy enough to bat him 2nd behind Eaton or Turner - arguably where your best bat should bat anyways. With all the pitches Soto sees, Turner could steal 70 bases and the other team can have fun with men on first and second with no outs to start the inning. That's a state with a run expectancy of almost a run and a half.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1911: February 14, 2020, 04:13:50 PM »
I actually love a regular lineup of

Turner
Soto
Kendrick/Castro/Cab
Zimmerman/Thames
Eaton
Robles
Gomes/Zuk
Kieboom

If Eaton keeps taking those gas-station pills he hit enough 2Bs and dingers to be OK as a middle of the order guy, and besides, I think a lineup "reset" at the five spot works because he gets on base so much and the guys behind him (Robles, catcher and Kieboom) are more free-swingers. If Castro or Cabrera are in for Howie this shifts a little bit but we are pretty flexible.

Davey can and will have to get pretty creative this year.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1912: February 14, 2020, 04:22:13 PM »
I honestly think Castro might be Daniel Murphy signing 2.0. Based on his last half of 2019.

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1913: February 14, 2020, 04:23:46 PM »
If we OPS+ like this:

Turner 120
Eaton 105
Soto 150
Kendrick/AssCab 115
Zimmerman/Thames 115
Castro 100
Robles 100
Kieboom 90
Catcher 90

We're actually in a really good spot IMO. I don't think those numbers are extreme for any of those spots. I'm not sold on Kieboom's bat yet obviously but a 90 OPS+ puts him probably at 2 WAR. Castro would be a little better than last year, and the other guys are in line with their career lines.


Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1914: February 14, 2020, 04:55:37 PM »
I was driving around yesterday and was thinking what upgraded performances could we hope for to make up for Rendons output offensively. I believe Turner and Robles are the key with Castro playing a secondary role. Kendrick, Cabrerra will regress due to age and playing time and Eaton and Soto will stay the same.

I think we can get better output at 2B and 1B.  Dozier was meh and got the bulk of the ABs at 2B.  Castro/Howie should be much better.  I think Thames makes for a better platoon partner than Adams with Zim at 1B. 

Offline Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1915: February 14, 2020, 05:47:08 PM »
I expect more out of Thames and RZ at 1st. 

I dont expect very much out of Thames, Zim, Cabrera, or Kendrick. Honestly, they're getting too old and only Cabrerra hasnt missed significant time due to injury the last three seasons. I dont buy that Zim is better and I dont think Kendrick can repeat last season.

The bottom line is that we need a middle of the order bat.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1916: February 14, 2020, 06:50:12 PM »
I dont expect very much out of Thames, Zim, Cabrera, or Kendrick. Honestly, they're getting too old and only Cabrerra hasnt missed significant time due to injury the last three seasons. I dont buy that Zim is better and I dont think Kendrick can repeat last season.

The bottom line is that we need a middle of the order bat.
Whippersnapper.  Get off my lawn. 

Offline Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1917: February 14, 2020, 06:50:51 PM »
Whippersnapper.  Get off my lawn. 
Okay, boomer

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1918: February 14, 2020, 07:37:01 PM »

Offline imref

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1919: February 14, 2020, 09:57:51 PM »
Whippersnapper.  Get off my lawn. 

When is slate starting the blow it up 2020 thread?

Offline Truconfidence

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1920: February 15, 2020, 02:51:34 AM »
When is slate starting the blow it up 2020 thread?
:hysterical:

Offline Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1921: February 15, 2020, 07:43:13 AM »
When is slate starting the blow it up 2020 thread?
Nah, that's done. Reverse jinx did its job.

Besides, we dont have anything worth trading anymore

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1922: February 15, 2020, 08:11:00 AM »
Nah, that's done. Reverse jinx did its job.

Besides, we dont have anything worth trading anymore
Max.

Offline DCFan

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1923: February 15, 2020, 08:17:07 AM »
Besides, we dont have anything worth trading anymore

Kieboom.  :popcorn:

Offline hotshot

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #1924: February 15, 2020, 08:47:03 AM »
I honestly think Castro might be Daniel Murphy signing 2.0. Based on his last half of 2019.
Even if the power numbers somewhat revert to the past, the guy can still flat out hit. And hit the opposition's top starters.