Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason

[bluestreak]

Weirdly enough all of our prospects are basically pitchers. Outside of Kieboom we have Garcia and a bunch of guys who project as replacement-level or bench guys. You'd think it'd be a little reversed. We've used our 1st round picks on pitchers mostly. Just interesting, likely more chance/luck/circumstance than anything.

It's not a bad strategy. Draft Pitchers, trade them for established players because TINSTAAPP, and then fill out your rotation with free agent studs. Sure you get burned occasionally, but I bet on balance it probably works.

[UMDNats]

That makes sense and backs up what we've been doing. You'd think other teams would follow suit but I guess that's why we're the champs and they're sitting at home wishing they were the champs.

[Slateman]

Of the top 10 salaries for position players, only Jose Altuve is on a team that made the playoffs last year.   The 5 highest paid starting pitchers were all in the World Series last year.  Are you sure we're doing it wrong?

6 of the top 10 WAR performers were on playoff teams.

[nfotiu]

6 of the top 10 WAR performers were on playoff teams.

And how many of those 6 are in the top 10 salaries list?

[Slateman]

And how many of those 6 are in the top 10 salaries list?

Who cares? How is it relevant? You need great position players as much as you need great pitchers. The best pitcher in baseball wasnt paid in the Top 10.

Felix Hernandez, Jordan Zimmermann, David Price, Jon Lester, and Jake Arrietta are all among the the highest paid pitchers last year and they didnt make the playoffs.

You need good player, period. Theres no magic behind position players versus pitchers

[bluestreak]

Who cares? How is it relevant? You need great position players as much as you need great pitchers. The best pitcher in baseball wasnt paid in the Top 10.

Felix Hernandez, Jordan Zimmermann, David Price, Jon Lester, and Jake Arrietta are all among the the highest paid pitchers last year and they didnt make the playoffs.

You need good player, period. Theres no magic behind position players versus pitchers

Wasn't the point he was trying to make is that teams that allocated money to pitching were more successful this year. Of course teams with better players do better. But the argument can be made that finding wins in position players can be done much cheaper than finding wins in starting pitching. And if you are spending all your cash on position players, maybe you aren't spending it as efficiently as you could.

[imref]

highest paid players in baseball going into the 2019 season (AAV): (bold = in playoffs)
1. Strasburg
2. Scherzer
3. Greinke
4. Kershaw / David Price
6. Miggy
7. Cespedes
8. Verlander
9. Pujols
10. Felix Hernandez
11. Jon Lester
12. Arenado
13. Stanton
14. Votto /  Jordan Zimmermann / Arrieta
17. Cano
18. JD Martinez
19. Donaldson
20. Heyward
21. Posey
22. Masahiro Tanaka
23. Edwin Encarcion
24. Freeman
25. Blackmon
26. Keuchel
27. Ellsbury
28. Porcello
29. Chris Davis
30. Hosmer / Choo

Seems if you are going to spend money, you should do it on a SP.

[UMDNats]

I think it's easier to find cheap hitters than it is to find cheap (and good) pitchers, so if there is a good SP available, you should just sign one.

[Dave in Fairfax]

highest paid players in baseball going into the 2019 season (AAV): (bold = in playoffs)

[snip]

27. Ellsbury
28. Porcello
29. Chris Davis
30. Hosmer / Choo

Seems if you are going to spend money, you should do it on a SP.

I'd unbold Ellsbury, since he didn't play at all and was not on the playoff roster. I'd ROFL about that one as well. At least Chris managed to hit a few HRs and knock in some runs. Hell, Chris improved his WAR by almost 2 wins (not that -2.8 to -1.0 is much of an improvement).

[Slateman]

highest paid players in baseball going into the 2019 season (AAV): (bold = in playoffs)
1. Strasburg
2. Scherzer
3. Greinke
4. Kershaw / David Price
6. Miggy
7. Cespedes
8. Verlander
9. Pujols
10. Felix Hernandez
11. Jon Lester
12. Arenado
13. Stanton
14. Votto /  Jordan Zimmermann / Arrieta
17. Cano
18. JD Martinez
19. Donaldson
20. Heyward
21. Posey
22. Masahiro Tanaka
23. Edwin Encarcion
24. Freeman
25. Blackmon
26. Keuchel
27. Ellsbury
28. Porcello
29. Chris Davis
30. Hosmer / Choo

Seems if you are going to spend money, you should do it on a SP.

Except only two of those pitchers were signed in free agency by the team that made the playoffs.

[bluestreak]

Except only two of those pitchers were signed in free agency by the team that made the playoffs.

Does that mean they don’t have to pay them? Or use resources to acquire them?

[Dave in Fairfax]

I won't speak for Slateman, but I think it's a caveat that going all-in in the free-agent market for starting pitching because starting pitching is the best route to the playoffs might not be wise.

Look at the Orioles' gamble a few years' ago. There were 11 starters in MLB Trade Rumors' list of 2017-18 Top 50 MLB Free Agents (Darvish, Arrieta, Tanaka, Lynn, Cobb, Sabathia, Cashner, Chacin, Vargas, Tillman, Pineda). The Orioles signed three of them. It was their gamble to take one last shot at the playoffs, rather than rebuild, and 2018 was a disaster for Baltimore.

Another caveat: among the highest-paid starting pitchers in MLB history are these below. AAV and term of contract are from Cot's. Pitching WAR is from Baseball Reference. Some good seasons in there for a few of the players but a lot of overpaying. King Felix looked like a win for the first few years of his contract, but then fell off a cliff. Others had inconsistent up-and-down years. And others like Scott Kazmir's 2016 deal were terrible.

Jon Lester, $25,833,333 (2015-20); 2.7, 5.6, 0.7, 3.4, 1.3, 1 year left
Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19); 5.3, 6.4, 4.5, 1.4, 0.7, -1.2, -0.6
Jake Arrieta, $25,000,000 (2018-20); 2.9, 0.9, 1 year left
Jordan Zimmermann, $22,000,000 (2016-20); 0.4, 0.2, 0.6, -0.3, 1 year left
Johnny Cueto, $21,666,667 (2016-21); 5.5, 2.0, 1.3, 0.1, 2 years left
Matt Cain, $21,250,000 (2012-17); 3.8, 0.7, 0.0, -0.7, -0.7, -0.4
Yu Darvish, $21,000,000 (2018-23); -0.1, 3.3, 4 years left
Rick Porcello, $20,625,000 (2016-19); 4.8, -0.2, 3.1, 1.2
Tim Lincecum, $20,250,000 (2012-13); -1.7, -0.5
James Shields, $18,750,000 (2015-18); 2.2, -1.1, 0.3, 1.4
Carlos Zambrano, $18,300,000 (2008-12); 4.2, 3.0, 2.6, 0.7, 0.7
Homer Bailey, $17,500,000 (2014-19); 1.5, -0.1, -0.5, -0.8, -1.5, 1.8
Josh Beckett, $17,000,000 (2011-14); 5.8, 0.9, -0.8, 2.0
Jered Weaver, $17,000,000 (2012-16); 4.3, 3.6, 2.8, 0.4, -0.7
A.J. Burnett, $16,500,000 (2009-13); 4.5, -0.7, 0.0, 2.6, 1.9
John Lackey, $16,500,000 (2010-14); 1.8, -1.8, 3.0, 1.0, missed one year
John Lackey, $16,000,000 (2016-17); 2.8, 1.2
Scott Kazmir, $16,000,000 (2016-18); 0.5, did not play last 2 years of contract

[Slateman]

Which one of those teams had top tier pitchers, but no top tier hitters? What about top tier hitters, but not top tier pitching?

You need both. Pretending you can get by with just one is ignorant. If you could, we'd have 4 world series by now

[bluestreak]

Which one of those teams had top tier pitchers, but no top tier hitters? What about top tier hitters, but not top tier pitching?

You need both. Pretending you can get by with just one is ignorant. If you could, we'd have 4 world series by now

No one here has said that. They have said that you should spend your money on pitchers and get good position players through trade or development.
It’s not really a coincidence that the big salaries were to the starters and the big position player contributors were arb/pre arb (Soto, Turner, Rendon Robles) or cheap (Eaton, Doo,Hudson,Howie).

[Slateman]

No one here has said that. They have said that you should spend your money on pitchers and get good position players through trade or development.
It’s not really a coincidence that the big salaries were to the starters and the big position player contributors were arb/pre arb (Soto, Turner, Rendon Robles) or cheap (Eaton, Doo,Hudson,Howie).

Honestly, I think that's just a fluke and a process of the team control system. Good position players get locked up earlier than pitchers due to injury risk.

If Bregman were a free agent, he'd make 40 million a year. Acuna would too. Rendon just got 35. Yelich got locked up early. Bellinger, Mookie ... all woefully underpaid.

You look at last year, 8 of the top 10 WAR players were on playoff teams. It was 6 in 2017. 

Teams are spending more money on starting pitcher because starting pitchers are considered a bigger risk for injury and teams don't want to lock them up long term.

[imref]

Nationals sign OF Mac Williamson to a minor league deal.  29 years old.  Seems to be one of those guys who mashes at AAA but can't hit in the majors (career .203 / .283 / .348 in 160 games with SF and Seattle).  Looks like nothing more than organizational depth at this point.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willima11.shtml

[Elvir Ovcina]

Nationals sign OF Mac Williamson to a minor league deal.  29 years old.  Seems to be one of those guys who mashes at AAA but can't hit in the majors (career .203 / .283 / .348 in 160 games with SF and Seattle).  Looks like nothing more than organizational depth at this point.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willima11.shtml

His most lasting legacy will be the relocation of the bullpens in SF. 

[Natsinpwc]

Nationals sign OF Mac Williamson to a minor league deal.  29 years old.  Seems to be one of those guys who mashes at AAA but can't hit in the majors (career .203 / .283 / .348 in 160 games with SF and Seattle).  Looks like nothing more than organizational depth at this point.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willima11.shtml

I saw MAC-WIL-EE--OM-SON play in Daegu for the Samsung Lions in September.  He had a catchy fight song the fans sung but I can't recall what it was. 

[Truconfidence]

Nationals sign OF Mac Williamson to a minor league deal.  29 years old.  Seems to be one of those guys who mashes at AAA but can't hit in the majors (career .203 / .283 / .348 in 160 games with SF and Seattle).  Looks like nothing more than organizational depth at this point.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/willima11.shtml

As I remember this dude mashed lefties at AAA and just cant hit in the bigs, has tremendous power

[hotshot]

As I remember this dude mashed lefties at AAA and just cant hit in the bigs, has tremendous power

Worth a shot. HRs are the name of the game in this era.

[DCFan]

I'm looking over MLB.com's list of the top 20 free agents in 2021. We don't have to worry about losing anyone because nobody on the team made the list.  We didn't even have any honorable mentions.   

[Slateman]

I'm looking over MLB.com's list of the top 20 free agents in 2021. We don't have to worry about losing anyone because nobody on the team made the list.  We didn't even have any honorable mentions.   

We don't have any major free agents until 2023.

Bigger question is how much money are we going to have to throw at Betts next offseason

[NatsAllThe Way]

As I remember this dude mashed lefties at AAA and just cant hit in the bigs, has tremendous power

If was in the Astros organization he'd likely be on track to be a first ballot HoF'er.

[metssuck]

As I remember this dude mashed lefties at AAA and just cant hit in the bigs, has tremendous power

Wasn’t that the case with Morse before he broke out with us?

[bluestreak]

I'm looking over MLB.com's list of the top 20 free agents in 2021. We don't have to worry about losing anyone because nobody on the team made the list.  We didn't even have any honorable mentions.   

You say that as if it’s a bad thing.