Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason

[imref]

Gonna guess we see a lot of read or Barrera next year so they’ll get plenty of opportunities to show if they are ready for 21

[rileyn]

Gomes won me over with his post series celebrations.  Shirts off everybody!  Welcome back, Gomes.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Gomes won me over with his post series celebrations.  Shirts off everybody!  Welcome back, Gomes.

he did that as well as Dozier?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Gomes i had hoped to bring back around $4MM.

decline the option, offer to take him back for less.  He's really only had one good year with the bat out of the last 4 or 5.  If he comes back at $4MM, then you have the freed up money for some veteran middle relief guys to add to Rainey / Suero.

But I would think the budget would have worked better with a cheaper veteran backup.

One key to roster construction is how cheap the outfield is with Soto and Robles on minimum and Eaton being cheap.   Hypothetical roster construction would be:

Eaton ($9.5MM), Robles, Soto, Stevenson (MLB minimum), Parra ($2MM, coming off a $1.75MM contract).  Total OF - <14MM.

Rendon ($35MM), Turner ($7.5MM, which is 2x his 2019 pay as a 2d year arb eligible), A-Cab - $4MM, [Kieboom/Sanchez] minimum, RZ $5MM, Mystery Lefty 1B - Moreland? Brad Miller? $3-5MM.  That's $50-52MM or so for the IF. That is close to the lux tax cost of the 2019 infield ($44.5MM for Rendon, RZ, Dozier, $3.75 for Turner, $3.5 Howie, and negligible for A-Cab).

Suzuki is $5MM.  Need a #2.  Figure no more than $2MM for a random back up, fo atotal of $7MM at C.  That saves about $1.8MM from Gomes.

Still can afford Stras at $30MM AAV for 6 years.  Add in the 4 pitchers locked in (Max, Corbin, Anibal, and Doo) for  $68MM.  Figure a set up guy, maybe Huddy for $5MM AAV.  add in Rainey and Suero for MLB minimum, and 2 of Ross / Fedde / Voth for longman / 5th starter.  That leave 2 pitching slots open between Guerra, Strickland, Elias, and whoever you bring in for maybe another $4MM.  That brings in the 12 man staff for about $110MM.  Key is 3-4 guys on MLB minimum. 

If my numbers are in the ballpark, that's a nice roster for maybe less than $175MM.

So they are about $3MM into that pad for Stras and Rendon.

[Slateman]

I think we figured about 83 million under the threshold with options, buyouts, and arbitration.

5 million for Gomes and 5 million for Zim gets you to 73 million.

30 and 35 for Stras and Tony gets you to 8 million left. Non tender Difo, Taylor, and Strickland gets you up to ~14 million.

Leaves you ~6 million for another first baseman (Moreland, Thames, Mancini, or Bell) and ~6 million for a reliever (Cishek or Hudson).

I think you roll with Kieboom at second

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Cot' projects $11.75MM for Taylor (3), Strickland (2), Elias (2), Ross (1.25), Guerra (1.1), Difo (0.9), Barrett (0.75), and Glover (0.75).   Other than Ross, I'm not sure there's one of those guys I don't bring back except at a lower number.  I think Glover and Barrett can be had at MLB minimum if you give them a guaranteed contract.  I'd bring back Difo at $750K, plan on dealing Taylor, and keep only one of Elias and Strickland.  I think figuring that's 8 roster slots, I expect by Opening day to have < $8MM committed to these guys or their replacements.

[Slateman]

I pulled arbitration numbers off of sportrac/MLBTR: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html

Forgot about Guerra. He can be non-tendered too.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I pulled arbitration numbers off of sportrac/MLBTR: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2020.html

Forgot about Guerra. He can be non-tendered too.

I think Cot's uses that as the the source for those estimates. 

[sixthree175]

Gomes i had hoped to bring back around $4MM.
But I would think the budget would have worked better with a cheaper veteran backup.

I think of Gomes more as a platoon catcher.  I'm happy with the deal. 

[sixthree175]

I think we figured about 83 million under the threshold with options, buyouts, and arbitration.

5 million for Gomes and 5 million for Zim gets you to 73 million.

30 and 35 for Stras and Tony gets you to 8 million left. Non tender Difo, Taylor, and Strickland gets you up to ~14 million.

Leaves you ~6 million for another first baseman (Moreland, Thames, Mancini, or Bell) and ~6 million for a reliever (Cishek or Hudson).

I think you roll with Kieboom at second

I'm there, although doesn't there have to be something left over for the trading deadline?

[imref]

who's our backup MI in that scenario?

[Natsinpwc]

I tend to think Gomes will bounce back some offensively in 2020. However expect a drop off from Suzuki and-or injuries. So a chance for the minor league guys to step up. 

[Slateman]

I'm there, although doesn't there have to be something left over for the trading deadline?

Given that we reset this season and that Scherzer has two more years left on his deal, the Lerners are willing to go over at the deadline to add a piece.

[Truconfidence]

Jesus Aguilar was just waived by the Rays.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Deadline to tender arbitration is Monday at 8 PM.  MLBTR projects the following Nats as having at least a 10-20% chance of being non-tendered.

Difo ($1.2MM), Guerra ($1.13M) Glover $700K), Strickland ($1.9MM).  Adrian Sanchez is not arb eligible but is out of options.  That suggests they think Taylor, Elias, Ross, and Barrett get offered arb.

Interesting names they say may not be offered arb- CJ Cron, Culberson, Brandon Drury, Franco and Cesar Hernandez, Jake Lamb, Travis Shaw, JurPro, Chris Devenski,

[zimm_da_kid]

Non tender difo and Michael a.  If Taylor can be resigned on a minor league deal then sure.  Try to find takers for Strickland and Ross.

Stevenson replaces Taylor.  Maybe turn Ross into a different lotto ticket 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Taylor is an interesting case.  You do try to get him back for less than $3MM if you can.  If not, is he still a flippable asset that you keep around to put in a deal, so you offer him arb?  We've had more expensive bench players (hello, McLouth), so do you run with Taylor and Stevenson and say we're done with the outfield?  Or do you non-tender him figuring you can get a backup OF later in the off-season?  A vet like Parra (not him, but a similar one) can be picked up in the $1-2MM range in a couple of weeks before camp opens.

[zimm_da_kid]

Taylor provides excellent defense and still has some power potential.  He wouldn't be more than a throw in in a larger trade

[Elvir Ovcina]

Taylor provides excellent defense and still has some power potential.  He wouldn't be more than a throw in in a larger trade

It's not "potential."  He's almost 29.  Just because he looks like he's 14 doesn't mean he is. 

He has decent power.  The problem is that he doesn't do much of anything else offensively.  I can't see anyone trading anything for an out of options 29 year old who is going to get $3MM or so in arbitration despite having spent most of last season in AA, regardless of the postseason production. 

[imref]

Difo avoids arbitration, signs a 1 year / $1 million contract.  Zuck says it’s not guaranteed unless he makes the opening day roster.

[Slateman]

Awful decision by Rizzo

[imref]

Awful decision by Rizzo

Right now our infield consists of Difo and Turner.

[Slateman]

Right now our infield consists of Difo and Turner.

And Kieboom.

There is nothing that Difo does that Kieboom and Noll cant do for half as much.

He has over 2000 innings of play for this franchise and hes not even a decent backup infielder.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Difo avoids arbitration, signs a 1 year / $1 million contract.  Zuck says it’s not guaranteed unless he makes the opening day roster.

mlbtr had been calling him for $1.2MM, so it is a good number. 

Awful decision by Rizzo

the fact that it is not guaranteed unless he makes the Opening Day roster preserves all the flexibility you would need.

Right now our infield consists of Difo and Turner.

plus Sanchez.  He's out of options, but under team control.  Frankly, if all we are talking about is an infield backup, I'm probably OK going with Sanchez at MLB minimum rather than Difo at $1MM.  But that is a spring training battle.

[rileyn]

Awful decision by Rizzo

Blow it up.