Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason

[imref]

First day back to work after my colonoscopy. Had to get a Medicare post in there. 

Hopefully you have some jello left

[DCFan]

Hopefully you have some jello left

I was slamming that lime jello with a side of chicken broth.

[GNatsNoMore]

A mildly optimistic take on Strasburg and Rendon possibly re-signing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2019/11/13/scott-boras-playing-role-scott-boras-talks-anthony-rendon-stephen-strasburg/

[raleighnat]

Uh … we don't win without Rendon. We might not even be a .500 team without him.

Offense is easier to replace though.  I love Rendon but aces are so scarce.  Risky too I know.

[raleighnat]

I'm trying to get a read on the Lerners. Are they more the type of owners that won one and now feel justified to spend what they need to spend to go for another, or to rest on their laurels for a season or 2 and put crap out on the field to save money.

I think they have shown they will spend and are committed to winning.

[imref]

Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Nats endeavor to get quick resolutions with Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon so there’s time to move to contingency plans, if necessary. Feels like they are slightly more confident in Strasburg case. GM Mike Rizzo met in Phoenix with Boras camp, tho no word of new offers yet.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Rizzo is supposed to be in Jamaica for his wedding this weekend. 

"honey, I've got to take this."

[Slateman]

Never dawned on me to this point: What if they cant re-sign either of them?

[imref]

Never dawned on me to this point: What if they cant re-sign either of them?

Bumgarner and Moustakis?

[Slateman]

Bumgarner and Moustakis?

If that happens, we better be all in on Cole

[nfotiu]

I think they have shown they will spend and are committed to winning.

The team's actions back up Rizzo's quote today saying the goal is to build a team that wins 90 every year and see how it plays out.   The difficulty for resigning the Boras guys is that they don't want to be saddled with dead money for several years at the back end of these contracts.   The luxury tax is pretty much their hard cap, and they seem willing to spend to it every year.  It makes sense to stay under the luxury tax if you want to be competitive every year.  If you end up in a place where you have dead money taking you over the cap, then you're faced with a situation where you have to pay 50% more per year for every guy you want to sign or re-sign.

[dracnal]

The team's actions back up Rizzo's quote today saying the goal is to build a team that wins 90 every year and see how it plays out.   The difficulty for resigning the Boras guys is that they don't want to be saddled with dead money for several years at the back end of these contracts.   The luxury tax is pretty much their hard cap, and they seem willing to spend to it every year.  It makes sense to stay under the luxury tax if you want to be competitive every year.  If you end up in a place where you have dead money taking you over the cap, then you're faced with a situation where you have to pay 50% more per year for every guy you want to sign or re-sign.

I thought the dead money didn't factor into the cap? That each year of the contract's AAV was counted as if the money wasn't actually deferred? I'll admit, I could be totally wrong about that because baseball contract rules confuse the hell out of me, but I'd swear it was something about it only applying during an active playing season.

[Expos]

Never dawned on me to this point: What if they cant re-sign either of them?

Donaldson and Bumgarner. And with the savings Grandal.

[nfotiu]

I thought the dead money didn't factor into the cap? That each year of the contract's AAV was counted as if the money wasn't actually deferred? I'll admit, I could be totally wrong about that because baseball contract rules confuse the hell out of me, but I'd swear it was something about it only applying during an active playing season.

I meant like dead as in paying 35 year old Bryce Harper 35 million a year to pinch hit once a week. ie, avoiding becoming the Detroit Tigers.

[Slateman]

Donaldson and Bumgarner. And with the savings Grandal.

Pass. Would honestly rather trade Scherzer, pay a crap ton for Cole, and reload in 2021 with Mookir

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

The salaries are ever increasing, so if Rendon and Stras decline the last few years of their deals...inflation of salaries will be so that players the level they may decline to now make the same.  Injuries are always a threat, especially with a pitcher, but Stras has the stuff and location/savy to be effective for many more years, ala Verlander.  He already has lost the high 90s heat he came into the league with.  He can be very good at 93-95 with his pitch mix and location. 

Rendon has a skillset at the plate that I also believe will age well into his mid-30s.  I don't worry about giving Rendon 7 years and Stras 6. 

[nfotiu]

The salaries are ever increasing, so if Rendon and Stras decline the last few years of their deals...inflation of salaries will be so that players the level they may decline to now make the same.  Injuries are always a threat, especially with a pitcher, but Stras has the stuff and location/savy to be effective for many more years, ala Verlander.  He already has lost the high 90s heat he came into the league with.  He can be very good at 93-95 with his pitch mix and location. 

Rendon has a skillset at the plate that I also believe will age well into his mid-30s.  I don't worry about giving Rendon 7 years and Stras 6. 

They aren't though.   https://www.statista.com/statistics/236213/mean-salaray-of-players-in-majpr-league-baseball/

Local TV money is going to get hit hard by cord cutting in a couple years.   I don't think the owners/GMs plan on salaries continuing to rise anymore.

Everyone always thinks their favorite players are going to continue to hit well.  I bet everyone said the same thing about Pujols and Miguel Cabrera.   The long term deals are more than likely than not to hurt the team down the road if you look at without any bias.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

They aren't though.   https://www.statista.com/statistics/236213/mean-salaray-of-players-in-majpr-league-baseball/

Local TV money is going to get hit hard by cord cutting in a couple years.   I don't think the owners/GMs plan on salaries continuing to rise anymore.

Everyone always thinks their favorite players are going to continue to hit well.  I bet everyone said the same thing about Pujols and Miguel Cabrera.   The long term deals are more than likely than not to hurt the team down the road if you look at without any bias.

No team WANTS to give those last few years on a deal, but you have to in order to keep/acquire top talent.  Pujols and Cabrera are totally different players/body types as lumbering 1B/DH types.  Rendon is only 29...those guys didn't decline in their early 30s...it was mid-30s.  If Rendon is a stud for 4 or 5 years then not great for the last couple...that's fine.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Braves sign Will smith 3 years 39 mill.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Braves sign Will smith 3 years 39 mill.

that's pretty much right on what FG predicted. 

[imref]

that's pretty much right on what FG predicted. 

Giants screwed up by not trading him.

[imref]

shockingly, Rendon and Strasburg declined their QOs.  Nats will get picks after Competitive Balance Round B for whoever we lose.

Ozuna and Bumgarner turned down their QOs too.

[Slateman]

Giants screwed up by not trading him.

Him and Madbum.

Signing Smith really opens them up to trade for Betts.

[Slateman]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1195110951789289472
Braves say Melancon is still the closer

[GNatsNoMore]

This aligns with what Boras said Wednesday: his high-profile free agents (Rendon, Stras, Cole) could sign "much earlier than [mid-January]."

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28074246/scott-boras-says-mlb-teams-more-eager-talking-year