Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason

[stanleycaps98]

Stras is not exercising his option but is open to returning to the team.

[bluestreak]

Bats pick up option on Adam Eaton.

[imref]

Nats exercise option on Doolittle, he's coming back!

Here's a summary of all moves so far:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/nationals-to-decline-options-on-ryan-zimmerman-yan-gomes.html

going to be interesting to see what they do about a catcher for next year.  I don't think they believe Read is ready.  Maybe Stephen Vogt?

[zimm_da_kid]

Moustakis please

Can play 2nd, 3rd, and 1st.  Could be added to flexible vet rotation in the infield with Howie, Zimm, and cabrera

[Truconfidence]

Moustakis please

Can play 2nd, 3rd, and 1st.  Could be added to flexible vet rotation in the infield with Howie, Zimm, and cabrera

Agreed

[Mathguy]

But why, for we have Carter Kieboom coming up - and maybe others ?

Moustakis please

Can play 2nd, 3rd, and 1st.  Could be added to flexible vet rotation in the infield with Howie, Zimm, and cabrera

[Truconfidence]

If we go bargain bin shopping, I hope we look at dealing for Travis Shaw as a good bounce back option at 3b if Rendon leaves.

[aspenbubba]

But why, for we have Carter Kieboom coming up - and maybe others ?

I've said it before but Kieboom isn't ready no matter what he did at Fresno this past year ( Slate). He is a viable candidate but not this Spring. His defense is more than suspect.

[Smithian]

If Rendon walks, Carter Kieboom cannot be looked at as a starter at any position next season. They have to bring back Cabrera and Kendrick and pray the keep hitting or Juan Soto will lead the majors in walks by a massive margin.

No bigger Zimmerman fan than yours truly, but I don't want to live through another season of him batting cleanup behind our prodigy of a #3 hitter. I've seen that movie before and did not like it one bit.

[DCFan]

No bigger Zimmerman fan than yours truly, but I don't want to live through another season of him batting cleanup behind our prodigy of a #3 hitter. I've seen that movie before and did not like it one bit.

Zim hasn't batted cleanup in eons. Where you been?

[Smithian]

Zim hasn't batted cleanup in eons. Where you been?

2016 is burned in my memory.

But if Rendon walks and those lose Cabrera and Howie, who is the cleanup hitter next season? It would either be Zimmerman or they may put Eaton at lead off and slot Turner into cleanup.

Externally, Moustakas makes sense as a Rendon replacement. He profiles as a passable cleanup hitter compared to other options.

[OvechkinsWodka]

I would let Zimmerman go unless he's coming back around the league min. His money needs to be spent on Rendon and Stras.

We can find a younger and better 1B for that 5 million number he's looking at.

[DCFan]

But if Rendon walks and those lose Cabrera and Howie, who is the cleanup hitter next season? It would either be Zimmerman or they may put Eaton at lead off and slot Turner into cleanup.

Externally, Moustakas makes sense as a Rendon replacement. He profiles as a passable cleanup hitter compared to other options.

If Rendon walks and they lose Cabrera and Howie, we're screwed. Getting serviceable replacements for all 3 will cost a fortune.

[Natsinpwc]

I think they need to move on from Cabrera. Hit poorly the end of last year and most of this year. You can find someone younger. And better.

[Natsinpwc]

I would let Zimmerman go unless he's coming back around the league min. His money needs to be spent on Rendon and Stras.

We can find a younger and better 1B for that 5 million number he's looking at.

Really?  Who is available?  Matt Adams?

[Slateman]

If Rendon walks, Carter Kieboom cannot be looked at as a starter at any position next season. They have to bring back Cabrera and Kendrick and pray the keep hitting or Juan Soto will lead the majors in walks by a massive margin.

No bigger Zimmerman fan than yours truly, but I don't want to live through another season of him batting cleanup behind our prodigy of a #3 hitter. I've seen that movie before and did not like it one bit.

Kendrick can't play every day.

Keiboom is an everyday player next season.

[Truconfidence]

If Rendon walks, Carter Kieboom cannot be looked at as a starter at any position next season. They have to bring back Cabrera and Kendrick and pray the keep hitting or Juan Soto will lead the majors in walks by a massive margin.

No bigger Zimmerman fan than yours truly, but I don't want to live through another season of him batting cleanup behind our prodigy of a #3 hitter. I've seen that movie before and did not like it one bit.

You have to look at Kieboom as the starter. You just need to pair him with a vet who can get ABs other places like Howie.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Nats exercise option on Doolittle, he's coming back!

Here's a summary of all moves so far:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/nationals-to-decline-options-on-ryan-zimmerman-yan-gomes.html

going to be interesting to see what they do about a catcher for next year.  I don't think they believe Read is ready.  Maybe Stephen Vogt?

they have some flexibilty and could even meet Stras at $30MM AAV and Rendon at $35MM.  They have a cheap closer (Doo at $6MM), RF an 1 catcher spot, plus 3 rotation slots on long term contracts.  Soto and Robles are MLB minimum.  Huddy may not break the bank if you want him back. Give the 5th rotation slot to one of Fedde / Ross / Voth, and things start to look affordable.  Neither Suero nor Rainey are arb eligible.  Trick is can you pull together a Zim plus mystery
<---
at 1st and get Kieboom to play 2d.  If Rendon walks, you can definitely keep almost all the old gang you want together, even Howie.

There's so much money coming off the roster that there is a lot of flexibility.  There was fat for luxury tax purposes that disappears.  I don't think Taylor is back, Adams is gone, so is Rosenthal and Barraclough.  That's over $15MM.  Then there's Dozier ($9MM), Gomes and Howie (another $7.3MM together).  Zim's contract is up ($16.7 MM).  I think you can bring back Hudson for 2 years, $5MM AAV.  Key will be shifting the $20MM+ you had locked into 1st and maybe maybe some of the $9MM at 2d towards Rendon or his successor. Keep 1st to under $10MM, go with [Cabby / Kendrick] plus [Sanchez / Kieboom] at 2d, and you can keep Rendon.

[Smithian]

They sign Rendon, you can go into next season with Kieboom, Adrian Sanchez, and Difo as your second basemen. Enough offense at other spots to let Kieboom or one of those JAGs to sink or swim at second.

Rendon walks, you have to look for offense at second and catcher to help make up for the massive drop off at third.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

One key to roster construction is how cheap the outfield is with Soto and Robles on minimum and Eaton being cheap.   Hypothetical roster construction would be:

Eaton ($9.5MM), Robles, Soto, Stevenson (MLB minimum), Parra ($2MM, coming off a $1.75MM contract).  Total OF - <14MM.

Rendon ($35MM), Turner ($7.5MM, which is 2x his 2019 pay as a 2d year arb eligible), A-Cab - $4MM, [Kieboom/Sanchez] minimum, RZ $5MM, Mystery Lefty 1B - Moreland? Brad Miller? $3-5MM.  That's $50-52MM or so for the IF. That is close to the lux tax cost of the 2019 infield ($44.5MM for Rendon, RZ, Dozier, $3.75 for Turner, $3.5 Howie, and negligible for A-Cab).

Suzuki is $5MM.  Need a #2.  Figure no more than $2MM for a random back up, fo atotal of $7MM at C.  That saves about $1.8MM from Gomes.

Still can afford Stras at $30MM AAV for 6 years.  Add in the 4 pitchers locked in (Max, Corbin, Anibal, and Doo) for  $68MM.  Figure a set up guy, maybe Huddy for $5MM AAV.  add in Rainey and Suero for MLB minimum, and 2 of Ross / Fedde / Voth for longman / 5th starter.  That leave 2 pitching slots open between Guerra, Strickland, Elias, and whoever you bring in for maybe another $4MM.  That brings in the 12 man staff for about $110MM.  Key is 3-4 guys on MLB minimum. 

If my numbers are in the ballpark, that's a nice roster for maybe less than $175MM.

[Expos]

I think Strasburg is back. Didn't he just move his family to Washington? Give him his 225 million and be done with it. But if he leaves Zach Wheeler would be a nice addition and should be cheaper. I've always wanted Cole Hamels on this team too. Sign him to a 1 year deal as the 5th starter and put Fedde/Ross/Voth in the pen.

Rendon is another story. If he leaves what about Donaldson for 3B? Dude still has massive power and can field with the best of them. Sign him for 2 or 3 years and by the time he leaves one of the kids are ready.

What about adding some power at 1B with Jose Abreu or JD Martinez? All 3 guys would look great infront of Soto in the 3 hole. Or if Rendon and Strasburg come back maybe Justin Smoak as a cheaper option. He still has decent power #'s and plays gold glove D at 1st.

Bring back Astrubal Cabrera on a 1 year deal. He raked all year and played great D. Give Keiboom another year to develop.

Bring back Daniel Hudson on a 2 year deal.

Howie and Zimm should both retire.

[Smithian]

Ignoring sentimentality, if Zimmerman comes back for under $10 million he is a good risk at first base. Good defensive player and I wouldn't be surprised if he has an OPS around .800 next year. Any other first baseman with any hitting ability who isn't a net negative defensively and on the bases would cost a lot more than Zimm.

[GburgNatsFan]

Ignoring sentimentality, if Zimmerman comes back for under $10 million he is a good risk at first base. Good defensive player and I wouldn't be surprised if he has an OPS around .800 next year. Any other first baseman with any hitting ability who isn't a net negative defensively and on the bases would cost a lot more than Zimm.

Also, his plantar fascitis issues are behind him. So weird. Once the connective tissue ruptures, the pain stop and there's no degradation in performance. At least not in the short term.

[GburgNatsFan]

Dumping MAT?

One key to roster construction is how cheap the outfield is with Soto and Robles on minimum and Eaton being cheap.   Hypothetical roster construction would be:

Eaton ($9.5MM), Robles, Soto, Stevenson (MLB minimum), Parra ($2MM, coming off a $1.75MM contract).  Total OF - <14MM.

Rendon ($35MM), Turner ($7.5MM, which is 2x his 2019 pay as a 2d year arb eligible), A-Cab - $4MM, [Kieboom/Sanchez] minimum, RZ $5MM, Mystery Lefty 1B - Moreland? Brad Miller? $3-5MM.  That's $50-52MM or so for the IF. That is close to the lux tax cost of the 2019 infield ($44.5MM for Rendon, RZ, Dozier, $3.75 for Turner, $3.5 Howie, and negligible for A-Cab).

Suzuki is $5MM.  Need a #2.  Figure no more than $2MM for a random back up, fo atotal of $7MM at C.  That saves about $1.8MM from Gomes.

Still can afford Stras at $30MM AAV for 6 years.  Add in the 4 pitchers locked in (Max, Corbin, Anibal, and Doo) for  $68MM.  Figure a set up guy, maybe Huddy for $5MM AAV.  add in Rainey and Suero for MLB minimum, and 2 of Ross / Fedde / Voth for longman / 5th starter.  That leave 2 pitching slots open between Guerra, Strickland, Elias, and whoever you bring in for maybe another $4MM.  That brings in the 12 man staff for about $110MM.  Key is 3-4 guys on MLB minimum. 

If my numbers are in the ballpark, that's a nice roster for maybe less than $175MM.

[awbb]

One key to roster construction is how cheap the outfield is with Soto and Robles on minimum and Eaton being cheap.   Hypothetical roster construction would be:

Eaton ($9.5MM), Robles, Soto, Stevenson (MLB minimum), Parra ($2MM, coming off a $1.75MM contract).  Total OF - <14MM.

Rendon ($35MM), Turner ($7.5MM, which is 2x his 2019 pay as a 2d year arb eligible), A-Cab - $4MM, [Kieboom/Sanchez] minimum, RZ $5MM, Mystery Lefty 1B - Moreland? Brad Miller? $3-5MM.  That's $50-52MM or so for the IF. That is close to the lux tax cost of the 2019 infield ($44.5MM for Rendon, RZ, Dozier, $3.75 for Turner, $3.5 Howie, and negligible for A-Cab).

Suzuki is $5MM.  Need a #2.  Figure no more than $2MM for a random back up, fo atotal of $7MM at C.  That saves about $1.8MM from Gomes.

Still can afford Stras at $30MM AAV for 6 years.  Add in the 4 pitchers locked in (Max, Corbin, Anibal, and Doo) for  $68MM.  Figure a set up guy, maybe Huddy for $5MM AAV.  add in Rainey and Suero for MLB minimum, and 2 of Ross / Fedde / Voth for longman / 5th starter.  That leave 2 pitching slots open between Guerra, Strickland, Elias, and whoever you bring in for maybe another $4MM.  That brings in the 12 man staff for about $110MM.  Key is 3-4 guys on MLB minimum. 

If my numbers are in the ballpark, that's a nice roster for maybe less than $175MM.

Liking your thinking JCA. Are the figures literal or for AAV purposes? Like most players, I would assume that Rendon will almost certainly sign a back-loaded contract (disregarding any potential deferrals...) so wont actually hurt cashflow this year to $35 big ones - more likely a token $25-30MM or something.