Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason

[Slateman]

Yea. No trade until the arbitrator rules. Probably no trade anyway.

I agree about no trade anyway, but this now "hot stove material"

I imagine they settle on a price in either contigency. I wonder if in the event Bryant is awarded free agency a year earlier, the cost of trading him would NOT include Kieboom.

[Mattionals]

For all the Bryant talk, remember that the Cubs want to compete but also have a huge problem with payroll and want to get under the threshold.

Bryant isn't cheap. He will take good, but probably not TOP prospects to land. Bryant is projected to make 18.5MM in salary this season, and even though the arbitration issue isn't settled, most believe that the court will side with team and he won't become a FA until after the 2021 season. Also, if you are the Cubs, you have other awful contracts that you are stuck with. The reason I suggested Kimbrel is that he is a likely bounceback candidate as a 7th or 8th inning guy, and if him and Bryant are paired together, the theoretical return for that deal may allow the Nats to hold onto Kieboom as long as the absorb all of Kimbrel's contract.

Good prospects will get traded, but 2 years of both Bryant and Kimbrel with the Nats absorbing ALL the money is still going to be cheaper than trying to sign Rendon AND find a cheap relief arm. It's still probably cheaper than signing Donaldson and a halfway decent reliever. My expectation is that Donaldson is getting upwards of 25M+ a season for 4 years. I'll take Bryant for under 20M and a reliever for 16M who might just find his fastball again.

[Slateman]

For all the Bryant talk, remember that the Cubs want to compete but also have a huge problem with payroll and want to get under the threshold.

Bryant isn't cheap. He will take good, but probably not TOP prospects to land. Bryant is projected to make 18.5MM in salary this season, and even though the arbitration issue isn't settled, most believe that the court will side with team and he won't become a FA until after the 2021 season. Also, if you are the Cubs, you have other awful contracts that you are stuck with. The reason I suggested Kimbrel is that he is a likely bounceback candidate as a 7th or 8th inning guy, and if him and Bryant are paired together, the theoretical return for that deal may allow the Nats to hold onto Kieboom as long as the absorb all of Kimbrel's contract.

Good prospects will get traded, but 2 years of both Bryant and Kimbrel with the Nats absorbing ALL the money is still going to be cheaper than trying to sign Rendon AND find a cheap relief arm. It's still probably cheaper than signing Donaldson and a halfway decent reliever. My expectation is that Donaldson is getting upwards of 25M+ a season for 4 years. I'll take Bryant for under 20M and a reliever for 16M who might just find his fastball again.

If we trade for Kimbrel, and he "bounces back," he's definitely the closer.

Also, it's entirely possible Kimbrel is simply done and will no longer be a useful closer. In which case, we are taking on all his money, replacing Rendon with a less good version (particularly defensively), and we still need a relief arm.

[Mattionals]

If we trade for Kimbrel, and he "bounces back," he's definitely the closer.

Also, it's entirely possible Kimbrel is simply done and will no longer be a useful closer. In which case, we are taking on all his money, replacing Rendon with a less good version (particularly defensively), and we still need a relief arm.

Yes, but everything is a gamble. I would also gamble on a pitcher who didn't have a spring training, signed halfway through the season and didn't throw to MLB opponents until the end of June, is going into his age 32 season, and is only signed for two more years (with an option for a third) at 14.33M towards the CBT, and could bounce back to being a very good closer again. I'll gamble that every day and twice on Tuesday.

[DCFan]

https://sports.yahoo.com/nationals-inquired-kris-bryant-162932015.html

[RyanZimsKazoo]

I want Rendon but I will take Kris Bryant.

He's won it all so he knows how to play. Put up very good numbers. Could easily be the 4 guy.

[Five Banners]

https://sports.yahoo.com/nationals-inquired-kris-bryant-162932015.html

Rendon is exploring his options. The Nationals have to explore their options, as Rendon hasn't signed on the dotted line.

[HalfSmokes]

If they have money to spend, they can’t wait out a Boras client; otherwise, if they miss out other opportunities may be gone. Give an offer and if it doesn’t look like it’ll happen, move on

[Natitude2018]

I want Rendon but I will take Kris Bryant.

He's won it all so he knows how to play. Put up very good numbers. Could easily be the 4 guy.

I would love to have Donaldson or Bryant vs. what it will cost for Rendon, just my .02 but no easy decisions this offseason.

[Mattionals]

I think it's obvious that Rendon is the 3B that everyone would want. Unless your starting 3B is named Assho... I mean Bregman, there isn't a better option than Rendon. Given that the CBT threshold exists, it's safe to say the Nats want to stay under or be as close to the tax if they go over as possible.

Now comes the hard part, what do you project moving forward? What I mean is, if you see Rendon as 6 wins added a season versus say 4 for Bryant/Donaldson, is it better to pay Rendon for those extra two wins, or spend the money elsewhere to try and improve a different area of need?

[RyanZimsKazoo]

I think it's obvious that Rendon is the 3B that everyone would want. Unless your starting 3B is named Assho... I mean Bregman, there isn't a better option than Rendon. Given that the CBT threshold exists, it's safe to say the Nats want to stay under or be as close to the tax if they go over as possible.

Now comes the hard part, what do you project moving forward? What I mean is, if you see Rendon as 6 wins added a season versus say 4 for Bryant/Donaldson, is it better to pay Rendon for those extra two wins, or spend the money elsewhere to try and improve a different area of need?

Take the discount and put it towards fixing the bullpen. As it stands we have a patchwork infield as it is outside of Turner there is no definitive starter anywhere. The outfield is set right now.

[NJ Ave]

What I mean is, if you see Rendon as 6 wins added a season versus say 4 for Bryant/Donaldson, is it better to pay Rendon for those extra two wins, or spend the money elsewhere to try and improve a different area of need?

Might be 6 of one, half dozen of the other. Last year the team *should* have won 95 games per pythagorean theorem. They won 93, at least partially due to the fact that our bullpen sucked. So if we lose Rendon, but can hold leads, maybe it's a wash?

I think there's still upside in guys like Soto, Turner, and Robles. So it could be a similar situation to Bryce leaving where we thought it would kill us but young guys making leaps forward papered over the loss.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Might be 6 of one, half dozen of the other. Last year the team *should* have won 95 games per pythagorean theorem. They won 93, at least partially due to the fact that our bullpen sucked. So if we lose Rendon, but can hold leads, maybe it's a wash?

I think there's still upside in guys like Soto, Turner, and Robles. So it could be a similar situation to Bryce leaving where we thought it would kill us but young guys making leaps forward papered over the loss.

That sounds like a lot of wishful thinking, especially given that a huge amount of what covered Bryce's departure (and Turner missing 40 games) was a mega-year from Rendon.   I don't mean that harshly, just that there was already a lot of improvement in other areas last year that also helped - Kendrick, Corbin and Sanchez in for Roark and a black hole, Eaton actually playing, Strasburg making 11 more starts, the mess in CF being sorted out.  It's hard to look at in isolation.  A lot of that is just year-to-year randomness.  I just wish I could look at it with the same optimism you do.

Either way, though, I'm still not convinced that throwing tons of money at the pen is a solution.  It costs a lot more than it should to fix a bullpen in free agency.  Dollar for win, position player WAR is a lot cheaper (and more reliable) to buy on the open market than relievers.  Relievers are total crapshoots, even the expensive ones. 

[skippy1999]

I think it's obvious that Rendon is the 3B that everyone would want. Unless your starting 3B is named Assho... I mean Bregman,

[imref]

Heyman:

Angels owner Arte Moreno has told folks he loves Anthony Rendon. They haven’t been linked much to AR but word is in they are in.

Braves have checked in on Anthony Rendon. Initial read: waters “a tad deep”

[bluestreak]

If you were Rizzo would you offer Soto a 15 year 400 million dollar contract? If you were Soto would you take it?

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Give Rendon what it takes, get Zim to take a very team-friendly deal, play Kieboom at 2B, try and piece together a cheap bullpen, and pay a minimal tax this year that will easily be offset by spiked attendance if all the stars of the World Series team are back (Rendon is the last up in the air).  Like last year, address the bullpen again later in the season.  Mayb this year we get lucky and cheap guys like Matt Albers a few years back are great.

[imref]

Jesse Dougherty
@dougherty_jesse
The Nationals remain interested in Josh Donaldson, according to multiple people, and are ready to pivot to Donaldson as a replacement for Anthony Rendon at third base.

still think we sign Tony very soon

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

still think we sign Tony very soon

I know many think there's no chance, but I just have this little gut feeling about it as well. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Give Rendon what it takes, get Zim to take a very team-friendly deal, play Kieboom at 2B, try and piece together a cheap bullpen, and pay a minimal tax this year that will easily be offset by spiked attendance if all the stars of the World Series team are back (Rendon is the last up in the air).  Like last year, address the bullpen again later in the season.  Mayb this year we get lucky and cheap guys like Matt Albers a few years back are great.

really, it is a 20% tax year if we exceed.  I think the whole thing can be done if we end up in the $215MM range, plus or minus.  The tax there is $1.4MM?  Not break the bank stuff. 

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

really, it is a 20% tax year if we exceed.  I think the whole thing can be done if we end up in the $215MM range, plus or minus.  The tax there is $1.4MM?  Not break the bank stuff.

Exactly.  We won't be able to spend much at all outside of that, but I'd rather have a MVP-caliber Franchise player than a collection of "pretty good" guys.  Much easier to find decent players than superstars and match that production.  Kieboom and Howie can handle 2B, Howie and Zim can handle 1B...we address the bullpen at the deadline...pick up a spare OF (Parra) or 2B (Asdrubal) during the season if needed.  The final touches can be finished later.  Just get Rendon.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

So far, between Stras, Gomes, and Kendrick, we've locked in something like $14MM over what their AAV was last year. I'm assuming Finnegan's MLB contract is at MLB minimum, and we were always going to have some MLB minimum pieces in the bullpen.  If you figure RZ resigns at about $5MM, this is close to a  wash so far.  The only big arb increase (>$1MM) is Trea at about $3.5MM.  We have Dozier off the payroll ($9MM), Rosenthal ($6 or 7MM?), and Adams ($4MM?).  There's got to be a way to tack most of that onto Rendon's $18.8MM from last year, get him into the $33MM AAV neighborhood so Boras can top Arenado, and even still have money for Hudson.  That may mean Knoll is on the team, Stevenson, and some guys like Brad Miller cheap, but if you are willing to go to $215MM, you can have Asdrubel and Hudson.

[imref]

Stras actively trying to bring Rendon back:

https://www.masnsports.com/nationals-pastime/2019/12/strasburg-making-direct-pitch-to-rendon-nats-to-sign-new-deal.html

The World Series MVP and new recipient of the largest contract ever given to a pitcher has been actively trying to convince Rendon to return to Washington while also encouraging the Nationals front office to do everything possible to bring the star third baseman back, according to a source who has been in touch with Strasburg.

[RyanZimsKazoo]

Stras actively trying to bring Rendon back:

https://www.masnsports.com/nationals-pastime/2019/12/strasburg-making-direct-pitch-to-rendon-nats-to-sign-new-deal.html

If he wanted that he never shoulda opted out.

All jokes aside, I am glad he is trying to bring him back.

[RyanZimsKazoo]

According to MLB.com's Mark Feinsand, the Padres have been trying to work out a trade with the Royals for Whit Merrifield.
Kansas City seemingly has a sky-high asking price on Merrifield, who inked a club-friendly four-year, $16.25 million contract extension last offseason. He was basically made untouchable at the 2019 trade deadline, and it's unclear whether the Royals would be willing part with him this winter. The 30-year-old batted .302/.348/.463 with 16 home runs and 20 stolen bases over 162 games this past season for KC while appearing defensively at second base, center field, right field, left field, and first base.

Wonder what it would cost to get him.