Author Topic: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason  (Read 32472 times)

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Offline RyanZimsKazoo

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #850: December 06, 2019, 12:58:41 PM »
We didn't re-sign Bryce
Truth be told nobody expected Stras to opt out either

But a WS MVP will do that.

Its a bad outcome of ultimately a good thing. Becuase if Stras doesnt opt out we can easily resign rendon.

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #851: December 06, 2019, 01:10:10 PM »
Hmm. I always expected Stras to opt out. I mean, if he had spent the last three years recovering from a 2nd TJ, no, but otherwise...

Truth be told nobody expected Stras to opt out either

But a WS MVP will do that.

Its a bad outcome of ultimately a good thing. Becuase if Stras doesnt opt out we can easily resign rendon.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #852: December 06, 2019, 01:39:09 PM »
Hmm. I always expected Stras to opt out. I mean, if he had spent the last three years recovering from a 2nd TJ, no, but otherwise...

Yea, unless Stras had a signigicant injury this year and/or just had severely diminished results, he was going to opt out and at least look to add years to his deal if not AAV. 

Online Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #853: December 06, 2019, 01:42:26 PM »
Yea, unless Stras had a signigicant injury this year and/or just had severely diminished results, he was going to opt out and at least look to add years to his deal if not AAV. 

Which it had every other year. If Stras repeats 2018, he doesn't opt out.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #854: December 06, 2019, 02:01:07 PM »
Which it had every other year. If Stras repeats 2018, he doesn't opt out.

His injuries have been minor since TJ.  He's averaged 28 starts a year since TJ.

Online Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #855: December 06, 2019, 02:24:13 PM »
His injuries have been minor since TJ.  He's averaged 28 starts a year since TJ.

26 in the last five and until this season, he had only gotten to 28 starts once since 2014.

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #856: December 06, 2019, 02:31:38 PM »
My question is, what is low years, high AAV for Rendon? Are we talking 35MM? 40MM? That really limits it to a few teams, namely the Rangers and Dodgers (and the Nats). I think there is enough room for both contracts in there and to stay under the threshold.

Online Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #857: December 06, 2019, 02:41:23 PM »
We were told we couldn't afford Harper if we wanted to keep Rendon and Strasburg. Now we cant afford to keep Rendon and Strasburg

"We can't afford Turner if we want to keep Soto"

"We can't afford Soto if we want to keep Kieboom"

"We can't afford..."

Offline RyanZimsKazoo

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #858: December 06, 2019, 02:41:47 PM »
My question is, what is low years, high AAV for Rendon? Are we talking 35MM? 40MM? That really limits it to a few teams, namely the Rangers and Dodgers (and the Nats). I think there is enough room for both contracts in there and to stay under the threshold.
There isnt. 66 Million available as of today.

Not possible for both. Still havent signed Zimm/2B/3B.

30/30 wont fly. I expect Rendon to get 5/200.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #859: December 06, 2019, 02:57:03 PM »
There isnt. 66 Million available as of today.

Not possible for both. Still havent signed Zimm/2B/3B.

30/30 wont fly. I expect Rendon to get 5/200.

Where are you getting 66 from?  I thought we were 80+ under, then we added Howie for 6? 

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #860: December 06, 2019, 03:05:32 PM »
We were told we couldn't afford Harper if we wanted to keep Rendon and Strasburg. Now we cant afford to keep Rendon and Strasburg

"We can't afford Turner if we want to keep Soto"

"We can't afford Soto if we want to keep Kieboom"

"We can't afford..."
Keeping your own guys into free agency isn't always the best move.   We let Harper, Zimmermann and Desmond go, and instead were able to spend $90 million/year on 4 starting pitchers, and won the World Series.   


Offline RyanZimsKazoo

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #861: December 06, 2019, 03:09:44 PM »
Where are you getting 66 from?  I thought we were 80+ under, then we added Howie for 6?
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/washington-nationals/payroll/

Per Sportsrac, we have 70 million before we hit the luxury tax

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #862: December 06, 2019, 04:10:34 PM »
Keeping your own guys into free agency isn't always the best move.   We let Harper, Zimmermann and Desmond go, and instead were able to spend $90 million/year on 4 starting pitchers, and won the World Series.   



We've done well letting guys go, but we also had a lot of internal replacements for big losses like Desmond & Harper. Not sure we have guys to replace Rendon & Strasburg but maybe FA and trades can carry us the next 2 years or so.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #863: December 06, 2019, 04:47:33 PM »
We've done well letting guys go, but we also had a lot of internal replacements for big losses like Desmond & Harper. Not sure we have guys to replace Rendon & Strasburg but maybe FA and trades can carry us the next 2 years or so.

Paying market rate to retain a players is effectively no different than signing a free agent. If one or both come back, great, if not lets see how they backfill

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #864: December 06, 2019, 05:01:03 PM »
We've done well letting guys go, but we also had a lot of internal replacements for big losses like Desmond & Harper. Not sure we have guys to replace Rendon & Strasburg but maybe FA and trades can carry us the next 2 years or so.
FWIW, Kieboom is the #20 prospect on MLB.com's list.  Our top pitcher is Crowe, who is nowhere near that level.  Neither is close to Rendon or Strasburg, but of the two FAs, Rendon probably has the better guy in the wings and is closer to Harper / Robles.

Offline imref

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #865: December 06, 2019, 05:10:48 PM »
FWIW, Kieboom is the #20 prospect on MLB.com's list.  Our top pitcher is Crowe, who is nowhere near that level.  Neither is close to Rendon or Strasburg, but of the two FAs, Rendon probably has the better guy in the wings and is closer to Harper / Robles.

Without Strasburg, we have a rotation of Scherzer, Corbin, Sanchez, Ross and Voth.  That still might be as good as any team in our division though I worry about Scherzer and Sanchez staying healthy.

Without Rendon, assuming we couldn't afford Donaldson, you are looking at an IF of Kieboom, Turner, Kendrick, and Zimmerman at best. 

We need to prioritize Rendon.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #866: December 06, 2019, 05:16:29 PM »
Without Strasburg, we have a rotation of Scherzer, Corbin, Sanchez, Ross and Voth.  That still might be as good as any team in our division though I worry about Scherzer and Sanchez staying healthy.

Without Rendon, assuming we couldn't afford Donaldson, you are looking at an IF of Kieboom, Turner, Kendrick, and Zimmerman at best. 

We need to prioritize Rendon.

At some point you need pre arbitration guys to be more than back end filler- paying hundreds of million of your top three probably isn’t sustainable

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #867: December 06, 2019, 05:17:35 PM »
More or less, if we can land a Ryu or a Bumgarner, then Rendon is more important, and if we can land Donaldson, then Stras is more important.  I hope the replacement for either Rendon or Strasburg is not someone on our roster right now.  At least with Ryu, you would not need to go many years.

Online Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #868: December 06, 2019, 05:57:26 PM »
This is probably the only way it makes sense. Both Stras and Rendon would need resigned and we go for the repeat now.
Even then it's a bad trade.

I'd rather package Kieboom, Crowe, Denaburg, and Atuna for Hader and Woodruff

Online Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #869: December 06, 2019, 05:58:12 PM »
More or less, if we can land a Ryu or a Bumgarner, then Rendon is more important, and if we can land Donaldson, then Stras is more important.  I hope the replacement for either Rendon or Strasburg is not someone on our roster right now.  At least with Ryu, you would not need to go many years.
Theres also the option to trade Kieboom for a very good starter. If the Indians wanted to rebuild,  we could look to move on Clevinger

Offline GburgNatsFan

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #870: December 06, 2019, 06:10:22 PM »
Someone pointed out that Stras is likely to get $7M more a year than the Nats had already committed to him. For a longer time, I guess. 

But when you look at that way... LAC.

Offline imref

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Offline aBaltoNat

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #872: December 06, 2019, 07:07:31 PM »
Nightingale says Rendon is the philly’s top priority.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2019/12/06/phillies-plan-pursue-free-agent-anthony-rendon/4355310002/

It'll suck just bc it's them and not anyone else and well then have to really root against him.

Don't be a jackass, Rendon.

Offline Five Banners

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #873: December 06, 2019, 08:54:06 PM »

Online Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #874: December 06, 2019, 09:25:15 PM »
More or less, if we can land a Ryu or a Bumgarner, then Rendon is more important, and if we can land Donaldson, then Stras is more important.  I hope the replacement for either Rendon or Strasburg is not someone on our roster right now.  At least with Ryu, you would not need to go many years.
Cant remember where but I saw a graphs that showed Bumgarner's hard contact percentage and away ERA the last three years. They were not in his favor.

I wonder about Ryu and wanting to stay on the west coast.