Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason

[UMDNats]

Our most reliable bullpen arms have major red flags and our other guys are either kinda bad (Suero) or hot-and-cold (Rainey). I like Hudson, Harris and Doo but there's a no-zero chance only 1 is reliable this year as a late-inning guy. Our bullpen was turd-tastic for all of last year and LOOKS a lot better going into this year but Hudson statistically could regress quite a bit and Harris is on the wrong side of 30 and Doolittle, as great as he is, may be worn down a tad and is a 1.5-pitch pitcher. It could be a strength this year but as of right now we're still a shaky bullpen that got shored up this offseason but still has some concern.

[bluestreak]

shaky?

Shaky is charitable, until they prove otherwise in meaningful games.

[imref]

Shaky is charitable, until they prove otherwise in meaningful games.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

shaky?

Yea, I think this bullpen is above "shaky" on paper at this point.

[bluestreak]

Yes. That’s the narrative of the 2019 World Series.  “The Washington Nationals won on the strength of their lights out bullpen.”

I am cautiously optimistic. But this is last year’s bullpen plus Will Harris. I’m excited Hudson is back and Hopefully Doo is healthy, but right now would you bet any significant amount of your own money that the bullpen will be good? It’s such a crapshoot.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Yes. That’s the narrative of the 2019 World Series.  “The Washington Nationals won on the strength of their lights out bullpen.”

I am cautiously optimistic. But this is last year’s bullpen plus Will Harris. I’m excited Hudson is back and Hopefully Doo is healthy, but right now would you bet any significant amount of your own money that the bullpen will be good? It’s such a crapshoot.

It's a crapshoot to an extent, but that 2019 bullpen wasn't awful once Huddy was added.  You can't go on the season-long numbers.  And what were the numbers with both Huddy and Doo healthy together?  Then, you replace the worst guy with Harris.  HUGE upgrade.  I also think it's vry reasonable to expect some improvement from young guys like Rainey and Suergo and/or bouncebacks from Strickland and Elias.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I really don't mind stuffing Fresno and maybe Harrisburg with as many arms from other systems as possible and hoping one or two force their way to the majors. It's not like we have a great track record for internally developed relievers (that we keep )

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

I really don't mind stuffing Fresno and maybe Harrisburg with as many arms from other systems as possible and hoping one or two force their way to the majors. It's not like we have a great track record for internally developed relievers (that we keep )

Yea, a minor league deal is never something to be upset about.  It's just a tryout basically.  No commitment.  It's not like we're going to have planned open roster spots relying on minor league free agents to fill.  It's just a lottery ticket.

[aBaltoNat]

I agree that the BP is a complete crapshoot every year. I'm sure one of Hud, Harris or Doo will end up a non-factor next year but you have to feel better than years past.

I'd like to keep a little room and not do Donaldson at this point and have some flexibility once the season starts.

[Natsinpwc]

From the start of last year Rosenthal and Barraclaugh gone. And Grace. Should be better just on that.

[bluestreak]

Nats avoid arbitration with Michael Taylor, $3.325 million.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Nats avoid arbitration with Michael Taylor, $3.325 million.

pretty much in line with the MLBTR estimate that's plugged into Sportrac's and FG/Roster Resource's estimates of payroll for calculating the competitive balance ("luxury") tax threshold.

[GburgNatsFan]

Nats avoid arbitration with Michael Taylor, $3.325 million.

Probably easy to move at that price.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Probably easy to move at that price.

Funny, I thought just the opposite.  He's a 29-year-old defense-only CF.  Aside from his mysterious playoff performances, he's borderline as a major leaguer.  Well over $3 million is a lot for a dude who spent the bulk of last season in the minors because he wasn't good enough to be on the MLB roster of a team that was floundering until midseason.   

[GburgNatsFan]

Funny, I thought just the opposite.  He's a 29-year-old defense-only CF.  Aside from his mysterious playoff performances, he's borderline as a major leaguer.  Well over $3 million is a lot for a dude who spent half of last season in the minors because he wasn't good enough to be on the MLB roster of a team that was floundering until midseason.

You could be right. I'm just thinking, would there be a team that would take a flyer on a very good fielding CFer that has shown that, in the right situations (see Baker, Dusty) that he can hit.

[Elvir Ovcina]

You could be right. I'm just thinking, would there be a team that would take a flyer on a very good fielding CFer that has shown that, in the right situations (see Baker, Dusty) that he can hit.

Sure, but I doubt they'd give up anything to take that flyer. 

[3bside]

Right now, MAT is our fourth outfielder and Stephenson is our fifth, so unless they're planning to sign someone, they need to keep MAT.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

Right now, MAT is our fourth outfielder and Stephenson is our fifth, so unless they're planning to sign someone, they need to keep MAT.

We aren't likely to carry both of them on the 26-man roster.  The "5th" OF will be someone like Thames, who is a adequate corner OF. 

[imref]

We aren't likely to carry both of them on the 26-man roster.  The "5th" OF will be someone like Thames, who is a adequate corner OF. 

yep.  stevenson will likely be in Harrisburg at the ready.

[imref]

Nats have until noon today to reach deals with Turner, Elias, and Ross to avoid arbitration.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Nats have until noon today to reach deals with Turner, Elias, and Ross to avoid arbitration.

can you still sign after the exchange of offers but before the hearing?

[Elvir Ovcina]

can you still sign after the exchange of offers but before the hearing?

Yes.  If you need a source, here is one: https://mulaw.missouri.edu/arbitrationinfo/2015/12/28/baseball-salary-arbitration/ (and another from MLB itself http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/salary-arbitration).

[imref]

$1.5 million for Ross, $1.975 for Elias.

[bluestreak]

$1.5 million for Ross, $1.975 for Elias.

Not a Nat, but Mookie Betts set a record with a $28 million contract.

[Slateman]

Pretty close on Ross and Elias.