Author Topic: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason  (Read 13286 times)

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Offline awbb

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #150: November 03, 2019, 04:11:25 PM »
Looks like we reset our Luxury Tax this year:

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

In 2019, the Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees exceeded the Competitive Balance Tax threshold. Boston also exceeded the threshold in 2018, so it incurred a steeper tax rate on its 2019 overages than Chicago and New York.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #151: November 03, 2019, 04:14:09 PM »
Can we just make Parra a coach?

Offline GNatsNoMore

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #152: November 03, 2019, 05:26:49 PM »
Ignoring sentimentality, if Zimmerman comes back for under $10 million he is a good risk at first base. Good defensive player and I wouldn't be surprised if he has an OPS around .800 next year. Any other first baseman with any hitting ability who isn't a net negative defensively and on the bases would cost a lot more than Zimm.
I think we should try to bring back Zimm too. He'll probably give us at least 50 starts, good defense and good hitting, and he could be a good late inning defensive replacement at times possibly.  However, since we can only count on him being available part-time, I don't think we can afford to pay him too much.  Maybe something like $5 million maximum.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #153: November 03, 2019, 05:33:09 PM »
Dumping MAT?

I think so.  He's coming off a $3MM+ contract. It is a lot for a guy who wasn't really on your 25 man roster except as an injury sub.  Stevenson saves you $2.5MM+ and even allows you to bring back Parra.

Liking your thinking JCA. Are the figures literal or for AAV purposes? Like most players, I would assume that Rendon will almost certainly sign a back-loaded contract (disregarding any potential deferrals...) so wont actually hurt cashflow this year to $35 big ones - more likely a token $25-30MM or something.
It's Annual average value, which figures into the luxury tax threshold calculation.

By the way, the numbers I used would leave a little cap room after you add in costs for the rest of the 40 man roster and health and other costs used in the threshold calculation.  For example, if you really want MAT, you could afford him, especially if he signed at a slightly lower number. RZ might not want to cut back all the way to $5MM, so if he asks for $8MM, you could probably swing it.  If Gomes wanted to come back at $4MM instead of the $9MM option the team declined, it is more than my budget, too, but there's some flexibility.  I tried to give bump ups to the unsigned vets we may want back (A-Cab or Howie, Hudson, Parra).  I'm a bit harsh to Elias / Strickland / Guerra, but I think they aren't anything special for this team; Difo I whack too.

Offline Expos

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #154: November 03, 2019, 06:28:00 PM »
Ignoring sentimentality, if Zimmerman comes back for under $10 million he is a good risk at first base. Good defensive player and I wouldn't be surprised if he has an OPS around .800 next year. Any other first baseman with any hitting ability who isn't a net negative defensively and on the bases would cost a lot more than Zimm.

How many games can we rely on Zimmerman though at this point in his career?

He should just ride off into the sunset and go out on a high note.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #155: November 03, 2019, 06:39:54 PM »
How many games can we rely on Zimmerman though at this point in his career?

He should just ride off into the sunset and go out on a high note.
If he did that, then I would not dump money into Smoak.  I'd still look at Howie / Moreland or Howie / B. Miller or Walker. Even Howie / Adams.

Offline Expos

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #156: November 03, 2019, 06:41:17 PM »
If he did that, then I would not dump money into Smoak.  I'd still look at Howie / Moreland or Howie / B. Miller or Walker. Even Howie / Adams.

Howie/Adams would work. Keep the gang together.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #157: November 03, 2019, 06:43:12 PM »
Moreland has a good pedigree.
:couch:

Offline catocony

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #158: November 03, 2019, 06:47:21 PM »
Not being in the least bit sentimental, this is my basic stay/go:

1)  Outfield - this is easy.  Robles, Soto, Eaton, Taylor and Stevenson.  Stevenson has gotten a lot better the last two years and showed he can decently pitch hit this season.  Taylor, if he can just cut down on the strikeouts, he's a very decent 4th outfielder.  That's a pretty solid 5.  Parra goes because he really, really slowed down in August and September.  He still had some clutch hits, but not enough to make my roster.

2) Catcher - this is tough.  Suzuki will be 37, which is ancient for catchers.  Maybe Read is good to go, maybe they sign a free agent.  Since Severino didn't pan out (or did but not for us), the Nats are back to having sub par catching.

3)First base- I like the idea of bringing Zim back for a smaller price.  He gets $2 million from the buyout, so offer him one year at $5 million or so or even a 2-year deal.  There won't be many takers for him on the open market, but an insult contract might lead him to retire.  As to the other 1st baseman, maybe that's where Howie goes.  Marmalejos looks to be the latest AAAA 1st baseman the Nats have almost developed in the minors, but he looks to be in the same crowded boat that goes all the way back to Larry Broadway.  Maybe the Nats get a cheap free agent, maybe even Matt Adams.

4)Second base- Dozier is definitely gone.  Howie can't handle it, Difo was basically demoted and forgotten, Cabrera might be the solution but his defense isn't too great.  This could be a free agent signing for starter.

5)Shortstop - Turner

6) Third base- Rendon or a free agent.  Kieboom needs another season at AAA to get his defense improved, but he'll get a call-up sooner or later next season.  He just won't be the Rendon replacement

7)Starters - I think Strasburg comes back, if not, they'll sign a free agent.  For the 5th slot, one of Voth/Ross/Fedde will do.  I think all three could be adequate #5 guys.

8)Relievers - Doolittle, Rainey and Suero will be back.  Strickland may be non-tendered, and Elieas too, but both won't cost much in arbitration so i think they at least get tendered and make it to spring training.  Hudson could be resigned for fairly cheap as well, and I would finally convert Fedde or Ross to a full-time reliever if they don't make it as the 5th starter.  Guys like Austen Williams and even Koda Glover might be in the mix.  Still, they need to budget for at least 2 decent ($multi-million) relievers, and not retreads like Rosenthal.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #159: November 03, 2019, 07:07:36 PM »
Strickland and Elias are both slated to make close to 2 million. Honestly,  I'd rather non-tender them and put that money towards one decent reliever.

Ross is going to be a starter. Fedde should be converted.

Offline sixthree175

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #160: November 03, 2019, 07:32:21 PM »
Having stayed under the luxury tax this year (resetting the baseline), the organization might be willing to go over it in 2020.
I think Gomes is worth $7mm.  Nobody runs on him.  He sometimes gives you some timely hitting.   
Howie is injury prone.
Elias will be cheap.  He is likely going to lose in arbitration. 
Strickland is garbage, unless he reinvents himself...
MAT is here for only only one more year.  If used properly, he can be a valuable role player.  But if I had to chose between him and Stevenson, I'll take Stevenson. 

Offline sixthree175

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #161: November 03, 2019, 07:34:46 PM »
I think we should try to bring back Zimm too. He'll probably give us at least 50 starts, good defense and good hitting, and he could be a good late inning defensive replacement at times possibly.  However, since we can only count on him being available part-time, I don't think we can afford to pay him too much.  Maybe something like $5 million maximum.
After buying him out for $2mm, I don't see them paying him more than $3mm on top of it.  In fact, maybe he will retire!

Offline Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #162: November 04, 2019, 07:16:48 AM »
Having stayed under the luxury tax this year (resetting the baseline), the organization might be willing to go over it in 2020.
I think Gomes is worth $7mm.  Nobody runs on him.  He sometimes gives you some timely hitting.   
Howie is injury prone.
Elias will be cheap.  He is likely going to lose in arbitration. 
Strickland is garbage, unless he reinvents himself...
MAT is here for only only one more year.  If used properly, he can be a valuable role player.  But if I had to chose between him and Stevenson, I'll take Stevenson. 

Elias had a sub-4 ERA and had 14 saves. He's not losing in arbitration.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #163: November 04, 2019, 08:05:56 AM »
Keiboom is an every day starter next season. You can't afford for him not to be at this point. Either we re-sign Rendon, in which case Keiboom frees up 2-5 million as the everyday second baseman, or he's part of a trade package that gets the Nats affordable pieces the team needs for next season (and beyond). But either way, he's at the point where he needs to be playing every day at the MLB level.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #164: November 04, 2019, 08:16:07 AM »
Keiboom is an every day starter next season. You can't afford for him not to be at this point. Either we re-sign Rendon, in which case Keiboom frees up 2-5 million as the everyday second baseman, or he's part of a trade package that gets the Nats affordable pieces the team needs for next season (and beyond). But either way, he's at the point where he needs to be playing every day at the MLB level.
Yea. It’s sink or swim for him. Not going to get much out of playing in the minors more. He looked bad in his time this year but everyone overreacts to a couple of weeks. Mike Schmidt hit .196 his first full year.  And 17 errors.

Offline aspenbubba

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #165: November 04, 2019, 08:20:48 AM »
Keiboom is an every day starter next season. You can't afford for him not to be at this point. Either we re-sign Rendon, in which case Keiboom frees up 2-5 million as the everyday second baseman, or he's part of a trade package that gets the Nats affordable pieces the team needs for next season (and beyond). But either way, he's at the point where he needs to be playing every day at the MLB level.
And what do you think his success will be this year at the MLB level and how many games does he lose for us with his glove ? I just don't believe he is ready to come North after ST and he could arrive later in the spring due to injuries on the team like last year. My guess is that he won't get a call up until late in the season. I'm willing to make a wager with you as this is the one area that I strongly disagree with you.

Offline hotshot

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #166: November 04, 2019, 08:33:28 AM »
Can we just make Parra a coach?
Yep. Sentiment can only go so far.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #167: November 04, 2019, 08:57:45 AM »
And what do you think his success will be this year at the MLB level and how many games does he lose for us with his glove ? I just don't believe he is ready to come North after ST and he could arrive later in the spring due to injuries on the team like last year. My guess is that he won't get a call up until late in the season. I'm willing to make a wager with you as this is the one area that I strongly disagree with you.
It really doesn't matter. Are you really going to make that decision on an 11 game sample size? If we had done that with Robles or Soto, they'd have been sent back down to the minors.


Offline Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #168: November 04, 2019, 08:58:28 AM »
Yea. It’s sink or swim for him. Not going to get much out of playing in the minors more. He looked bad in his time this year but everyone overreacts to a couple of weeks. Mike Schmidt hit .196 his first full year.  And 17 errors.
There is nothing else for him to do in the minors. If he isn't "ready" then it's likely he never will be. Even with bad defense, his bat should keep him in the lineup and on the field. Every scout and every analyst rave about the hard contact he makes. Even during his struggles this season, he was getting hard contact 40+% of the time. Dude has hit at every level and I expect that to continue. It was obvious that he was pressing and everything seemed fast for him at the MLB level. But he's been a decent fielder his whole career and I would expect that to continue.

Offline rileyn

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #169: November 04, 2019, 09:20:33 AM »
There is nothing else for him to do in the minors. If he isn't "ready" then it's likely he never will be. Even with bad defense, his bat should keep him in the lineup and on the field. Every scout and every analyst rave about the hard contact he makes. Even during his struggles this season, he was getting hard contact 40+% of the time. Dude has hit at every level and I expect that to continue. It was obvious that he was pressing and everything seemed fast for him at the MLB level. But he's been a decent fielder his whole career and I would expect that to continue.
Agree.  Plug in and play him every day, hopefully at 2B.

Offline imref

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Offline hotshot

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #171: November 04, 2019, 10:22:23 AM »

2) Catcher - this is tough.  Suzuki will be 37, which is ancient for catchers.  Maybe Read is good to go, maybe they sign a free agent.  Since Severino didn't pan out (or did but not for us), the Nats are back to having sub par catching.
I see nothing in Raudy Read that indicates he may ever be a major league catcher, no less counting on him in 2020.

Offline Kurt Studzuki

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #172: November 04, 2019, 10:27:06 AM »
2) Catcher - this is tough.  Suzuki will be 37, which is ancient for catchers.

Maybe for most catchers!

Second year of our two year Suzuki-enabled WS Competition Window -- let's make the most of it!

Offline Slateman

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #173: November 04, 2019, 10:30:03 AM »
I see nothing in Raudy Read that indicates he may ever be a major league catcher, no less counting on him in 2020.
He'd be fine as a backup.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason
« Reply #174: November 04, 2019, 10:36:30 AM »
Such a better vibe in this thread than when we were hoping for Fielder it Teixeria- kind of funny how times change