Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason

[Slateman]

How is Cabrera slipping? He was excellent last year

99 wRC+ ain't exactly excellent.  He and Castro had similar seasons at the plate.

[Expos]

99 wRC+ ain't exactly excellent.  He and Castro had similar seasons at the plate.

That's pretty damn good for 2.5 million.

[nats4ever]

Josh Donaldson has four-year offers on the table from the Nationals, Braves and Twins.
The offers are believed to be in the $90-100 million range. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears that Donaldson is waiting for a team to meat his target of $110 million for four years. Rumor has it that Donaldson has told the Braves they will have the chance to match the best offer he receives from another team. The 34-year-old third baseman made $23 million last season on a one-year contract with the Braves, slashing .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs, 94 RBI and 96 runs scored. He is the best player remaining on the free agent market this winter.

[Slateman]

That's pretty damn good for 2.5 million.

Sure. But that's not "excellent." Yoan Moncada was excellent. Jose Altuve was excellent.

99 wRC+ is pretty meh, and it's a big reason why hes getting 2.5 million instead of 15 million

[Slateman]

Josh Donaldson has four-year offers on the table from the Nationals, Braves and Twins.
The offers are believed to be in the $90-100 million range. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears that Donaldson is waiting for a team to meat his target of $110 million for four years. Rumor has it that Donaldson has told the Braves they will have the chance to match the best offer he receives from another team. The 34-year-old third baseman made $23 million last season on a one-year contract with the Braves, slashing .259/.379/.521 with 37 home runs, 94 RBI and 96 runs scored. He is the best player remaining on the free agent market this winter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ken_rosenthal/status/1213240118808653830?s=21

He wants 110 million

[Natsinpwc]

How is Cabrera slipping? He was excellent last year

Check his overall stats the past two years. In fact just check his stats for his career. He is a .756 career OPS guy. The last two months of last season were an outlier.

[Slateman]

Honestly, I think Rizzo holds fast with these guys until one of two things:

1. Kieboom keeps raking in the minors and shows some level of defensive ability at second or third base
or
2. A trade at the deadline

[bluestreak]

Check his overall stats the past two years. In fact just check his stats for his career. He is a .756 career OPS guy. The last two months of last season were an outlier.

OPS+
2015 106
2016 117
2017 110
2018 111 Mets (98 games) 126, Phillies (49 games) 80
2019  97  Rangers (93 games) 80, Nats (38 games) 143 (!)

I don’t think last year was an outlier, I think the 142 games with the Phillies and Rangers were. Something was going on between August 2018 and August 2019, but other than that he’s been an above average hitter for years.

[Natsinpwc]

OPS+
2015 106
2016 117
2017 110
2018 111 Mets (98 games) 126, Phillies (49 games) 80
2019  97  Rangers (93 games) 80, Nats (38 games) 143 (!)

I don’t think last year was an outlier, I think the 142 games with the Phillies and Rangers were. Something was going on between August 2018 and August 2019, but other than that he’s been an above average hitter for years.

Above average but not by a lot.  That would balance off Starlin Castro-between the two you will probably get MLB average.  I don't see these guys producing more than Kieboom offensively.  Nats are looking for insurance.  That's why one year for Cabrerar and two for Castro.  It's a big drop off from Rendon but not from 2B.  They need a good year from Zimm.  And Howie to continue to hit.  And for both to stay healthy. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Roster Resource's calculation of our room below the CBT threshold is about $15.5MM ($192.4MM counting latest signings and estimates for minors, arb and benefits).  Looks like there's enough there for one or two more not-break-the-bank signings.  Zim for about $4MM and ???  Reliever if you go with Stevenson as the 26th man, Thames if you look for more lefty power. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/nationals

[Natsinpwc]

Roster Resource's calculation of our room below the CBT threshold is about $15.5MM ($192.4MM counting latest signings and estimates for minors, arb and benefits).  Looks like there's enough there for one or two more not-break-the-bank signings.  Zim for about $4MM and ???  Reliever if you go with Stevenson as the 26th man, Thames if you look for more lefty power. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/nationals

Does anyone know what they will pay Zimm? I tend to think it will be more like $7 or $8 million. Because he is Zimm.

[Slateman]

Roster Resource's calculation of our room below the CBT threshold is about $15.5MM ($192.4MM counting latest signings and estimates for minors, arb and benefits).  Looks like there's enough there for one or two more not-break-the-bank signings.  Zim for about $4MM and ???  Reliever if you go with Stevenson as the 26th man, Thames if you look for more lefty power. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/nationals

I think this leaves you space to make a move at the deadline.

Also, they could free up space by trading Taylor and dropping Difo and Strickland. That's ~5 million right there.

[aspenbubba]

I think this leaves you space to make a move at the deadline.

Also, they could free up space by trading Taylor and dropping Difo and Strickland. That's ~5 million right there.

YES!!

[aspenbubba]

Back on December 12th at 8:44 AM I posted in the Rendon  thread that I would sign Cabrera and a Dozier type for the infield until Kieboom and Garcia were ready. I just had the positions reversed. Donaldson is not going to be a Nat as there is no money. And Kieboom isn't ready and may never be more than a AAAA player if that.

[Slateman]

Back on December 12th at 8:44 AM I posted in the Rendon  thread that I would sign Cabrera and a Dozier type for the infield until Kieboom and Garcia were ready. I just had the positions reversed. Donaldson is not going to be a Nat as there is no money. And Kieboom isn't ready and may never be more than a AAAA player if that.

Castro is not a "Dozier type"

[Mattionals]

Roster Resource's calculation of our room below the CBT threshold is about $15.5MM ($192.4MM counting latest signings and estimates for minors, arb and benefits).  Looks like there's enough there for one or two more not-break-the-bank signings.  Zim for about $4MM and ???  Reliever if you go with Stevenson as the 26th man, Thames if you look for more lefty power. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/nationals

I think Roster Resource has a very high estimate, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Nats go over the threshold since they just reset last season. I doubt that the plan would be to bust through the threshold, but just going over doesn't have the same consequences anymore.

[imref]

A good read on where we are currently
http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=16439

highlight:

New payroll estimate is $185,452,709, leaving us $22,547,291 under the cap for 2020.  For all of you still holding out hope for Josh Donaldson … you should stop.  He’s soliciting 4yr deals north of $100M; the numbers don’t add up.  If this team has $22M and change left and are not going over, then we’re out of the Donaldson mix.

OD lineup projects (against RHP):
1. Eaton
2. Turner
3. Soto
4. Kendrick (1B)
5. Castro (2B)
6. Cabrera (3B)
7. Suzuki
8. Robles

with a bench of Kieboom, and probably Zimmerman and Difo.

That isn't exactly going to inspire a lot of confidence in a 2020 repeat.

[aBaltoNat]

Nope.

But it's pretty much impossible so it's not like we should expect it.

[imref]

Nope.

But it's pretty much impossible so it's not like we should expect it.

yeah.  and with five of the eight on the wrong side of 30 there's ample opportunity for Kieboom to do something.

[Expos]

Nope.

But it's pretty much impossible so it's not like we should expect it.

Because we lost Rendon? Come on now. Baseball isn't a one man game. The exact same things were said last year when we lost Harper.

If we have a better pen than we did last year we will have more wins plain and simple. 

We upgraded at 2B. Robles and Soto are a year more experienced.  Trea Turner hopefully stays healthy. We have 4 excellent starters.  And we still have 22 million to swing a trade for a 3B or add another BP arm.

[Slateman]

Because repeating a championship is exceptionally difficult in every sport.

Rendon was an enormous part of this team's success. He has not been replaced. We have not upgraded 2B over what we had last season. We're nowhere near replacing Rendon. We have a lot of old players with a long history of injuries.

[Expos]

Because repeating a championship is exceptionally difficult in every sport.

Rendon was an enormous part of this team's success. He has not been replaced. We have not upgraded 2B over what we had last season. We're nowhere near replacing Rendon. We have a lot of old players with a long history of injuries.

I never said anything about repeating.  But this is still a 90 win club.

[Lazarchick 31]

Because we lost Rendon? Come on now. Baseball isn't a one man game. The exact same things were said last year when we lost Harper.

If we have a better pen than we did last year we will have more wins plain and simple. 

We upgraded at 2B. Robles and Soto are a year more experienced.  Trea Turner hopefully stays healthy. We have 4 excellent starters.  And we still have 22 million to swing a trade for a 3B or add another BP arm.

No one thought this team was screwed without Harper. It's not hard to find an OF to hit .250 for you.

[RD]

I dont understand the negativity on Kieboom. Just about every scouting service had him as a top tier prospect. His draft position and minor league numbers support those rankings.

Basically it comes down to a 2 week stint in the bigs. Trout struggled in his first taste. Vlad struggled in his first taste.

Kieboom is a game, from a baseball family, and is very talented. It's fine to question how good hell become. But to write him completely off is ridiculous. Maybe he becomes a zero at the big league level. Just about everyone that is paid to cover the sport thinks hes a legit big leaguer. Give him more than 2 weeks.

For my money, hes going to prove to be a legit big leaguer this year and hit 20 bombs. He will be our 3rd baseman over the course of the next 5 years, and Garcia will eventually become our 2b.

[bluestreak]

I’m not as worried about Kieboom’s bat as I am about his defense. But I’m definitely not writing him off.