Hot Stove: 2019-2020 Offseason

[Slateman]

And you wanted to trade Max, Stras, Rendon, Howie etc this past deadline.  Great idea.

https://www.wnff.net/index.php?topic=38122.0 

Good to know I live rent free in your head too.

[Slateman]

I love Tony, and wish we kept him. That being said, I don't think it's particularly likely that he remains a 6-7 win player for very long if at all. In the past decade, only three 3rd basemen have had seasons of 6+ WAR at age 30 or older. Beltre twice, Donaldson once, Miggy once. Only Beltre and Justin Turner have had 2 or more seasons of 5+ WAR.

Third base is a rough position, and while Tony isn't as injury-prone as his first couple years, I also wouldn't say he's exceptionally likely to be more durable than average. At 1B, he's more like Anthony Rizzo, and while that's a nice player, no one is falling all over themselves to pay Anthony Rizzo $35 million a year.

I hope I'm wrong, and I'll be rooting for the Angels in the AL for sure.

If Rizzo were a free agent, he would absolutely get 30+ million a year from a bunch of teams.

[NJ Ave]

If Rizzo were a free agent, he would absolutely get 30+ million a year from a bunch of teams.

Maybe for 3-4 years, certainly not for 7 years.

Paul Goldschmidt was a better player by like a win a season, with a contract totaling 6/$145 million when he was traded last offseason for Carson Kelly (50), Luke Weaver (45) and Andy Young (nobody).

Miguel Cabrera is literally the only 1B who has ever gotten $30 million for any number of years, to my knowledge.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Maybe for 3-4 years, certainly not for 7 years.

Paul Goldschmidt was a better player by like a win a season, with a contract totaling 6/$145 million when he was traded last offseason for Carson Kelly (50), Luke Weaver (45) and Andy Young (nobody).

Miguel Cabrera is literally the only 1B who has ever gotten $30 million for any number of years, to my knowledge.

And he and Pujols will make it very difficult for it to happen until salaries inflate drastically further. 

[Slateman]

Maybe for 3-4 years, certainly not for 7 years.

Paul Goldschmidt was a better player by like a win a season, with a contract totaling 6/$145 million when he was traded last offseason for Carson Kelly (50), Luke Weaver (45) and Andy Young (nobody).

Miguel Cabrera is literally the only 1B who has ever gotten $30 million for any number of years, to my knowledge.

He's the same age as Rendon.

Goldschmidt isn't a lefty and is older.

[RyanZimsKazoo]

Its hard to imagine guys are getting paid more but the effective CBT doesnt adjust to reflect that.

Its probably the worst in Hockey but it is getting rather annoying seeing chunks of your payroll just go to 1 player.

[Lazarchick 31]

Did you say the same thing last year when we lost Harper?

Rendon is gone and he is a good player but he wasn't the only reason we won.

Rendon proved his worth here imo. Bryce did not. So yeah it was pretty easy to see life without him. Especially with someone ready to step in an replace his production quite easily.

[NJ Ave]

He's the same age as Rendon.

Goldschmidt isn't a lefty and is older.

Goldschmidt was 1 year older, last year, than Rizzo is right now. He was also a much better player, coming off a 3-year total of 15.4 WAR while Rizzo is looking at a 3-year total of 11 WAR.

But if you want to compare him to Rendon, Rendon is projected to be 1.5 WAR more valuable next season, and was just paid $35 million, so unless you think teams are valuing linear WAR between 4 win players and 5-6 win players at $3-4 million per win, Rizzo wouldn't get $30 million, or probably anywhere close, on a long-term deal.

I mean jeez, JD Martinez got 5/$110 coming off a 1.066 OPS season, heading into his age-30 season.

[RyanZimsKazoo]

Rendon proved his worth here imo. Bryce did not. So yeah it was pretty easy to see life without him. Especially with someone ready to step in an replace his production quite easily.

That is unfortunately the case. We dont have a guy who can match Rendon's defense nor offense at 3B. The line up drastically changes now. We have no 3 hitter anymore. Soto is perfect for that 4 spot. Do you pay a Donaldson 25 mil a year? Or do you trade whats left of your farm for a guy like Bryant with an unknown situation regarding time service?

I will take Kris Bryant because younger and can easily see him resigning with the Nats.

[bluestreak]

That is unfortunately the case. We dont have a guy who can match Rendon's defense nor offense at 3B. The line up drastically changes now. We have no 3 hitter anymore. Soto is perfect for that 4 spot. Do you pay a Donaldson 25 mil a year? Or do you trade whats left of your farm for a guy like Bryant with an unknown situation regarding time service?

I will take Kris Bryant because younger and can easily see him resigning with the Nats.

We should avoid Boras clients in the future.

[Slateman]

Goldschmidt was 1 year older, last year, than Rizzo is right now. He was also a much better player, coming off a 3-year total of 15.4 WAR while Rizzo is looking at a 3-year total of 11 WAR.

But if you want to compare him to Rendon, Rendon is projected to be 1.5 WAR more valuable next season, and was just paid $35 million, so unless you think teams are valuing linear WAR between 4 win players and 5-6 win players at $3-4 million per win, Rizzo wouldn't get $30 million, or probably anywhere close, on a long-term deal.

I mean jeez, JD Martinez got 5/$110 coming off a 1.066 OPS season, heading into his age-30 season.

Yea, but he hit in Arizona. Goldy also signed an extension and wasn't a free agent.

Martinez was a DH.

[Slateman]

That is unfortunately the case. We dont have a guy who can match Rendon's defense nor offense at 3B. The line up drastically changes now. We have no 3 hitter anymore. Soto is perfect for that 4 spot. Do you pay a Donaldson 25 mil a year? Or do you trade whats left of your farm for a guy like Bryant with an unknown situation regarding time service?

I will take Kris Bryant because younger and can easily see him resigning with the Nats.

We do not pay for Donaldson.

You trade the farm for Bryant if you get two years service time left.

Bryant is not re-signing with the Nationals unless they are the top bidder.

We should avoid Boras clients in the future.

That is now impossible.

[RyanZimsKazoo]

We do not pay for Donaldson.

You trade the farm for Bryant if you get two years service time left.

Bryant is not re-signing with the Nationals unless they are the top bidder.
That is now impossible.

IF the nats trade the farm for him...they better have a deal in place. give Bryant exactly what Rendon got. Trade and sign basically.

[Slateman]

IF the nats trade the farm for him...they better have a deal in place. give Bryant exactly what Rendon got. Trade and sign basically.

Why? If they were going to spend that money, why not just give it to Rendon.

The Lerners weren't willing to give Rendon 30 million without deferrals. They're not going to turn around and be willing to give it to Bryant, who is a Boras client and wants to go to free agency.

You trade for right now. Two years left on Scherzer. Then the deferred money starts kicking in, Stras and Corbin are getting older, with Turner and Soto being expensive.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

I'd prefer the youthful (27) upside of Bryant over Donaldson (34), but what exactly can we even offer the Cubs?  I just don't see us being able to make a deal.  We likely sign Donaldson and in a few years he may move to 1B.

[Five Banners]

I'd prefer the youthful (27) upside of Bryant over Donaldson (34), but what exactly can we even offer the Cubs?  I just don't see us being able to make a deal.  We likely sign Donaldson and in a few years he may move to 1B.

The later 1B part would make sense, and hopefully another good answer presents itself by then. The DH can't come to the NL soon enough for me.

[CoryTheFormerExposFan]

The later 1B part would make sense, and hopefully another good answer presents itself by then. The DH can't come to the NL soon enough for me.

It would be great if we only have to commit 3 years to get Donaldson.  He plays 3B in 2020, then you have Kieboom and Garcia to possibly man 3B and 2B for 2021 and beyond and Donaldson joins a 1B mix with Howie in 2021 and we'll see with Zim. 

[Lazarchick 31]

That is unfortunately the case. We dont have a guy who can match Rendon's defense nor offense at 3B. The line up drastically changes now. We have no 3 hitter anymore. Soto is perfect for that 4 spot. Do you pay a Donaldson 25 mil a year? Or do you trade whats left of your farm for a guy like Bryant with an unknown situation regarding time service?

I will take Kris Bryant because younger and can easily see him resigning with the Nats.

That's exactly my point. If we didn't win the WS last year Rizzo and the Lerner's would be under a fire storm right now. Unless you get a huge jump this year from Soto we just aren't going to be nearly as good offensively.

Stras and Rendon are the only two players viewed as irreplaceable on this team and just so happened both were FA. It's just being cheap. Plain and simple.

[Lazarchick 31]

Bidding war underway for Donaldson via BR

Also Cubs want Robles for Bryant from us.

Yeah, should have just freaking paid Rendon.

[Kevrock]

No to that trade

[Slateman]

Bidding war underway for Donaldson via BR

Also Cubs want Robles for Bryant from us.

Yeah, should have just freaking paid Rendon.

Are they sending us Schwarber too?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

That's exactly my point. If we didn't win the WS last year Rizzo and the Lerner's would be under a fire storm right now. Unless you get a huge jump this year from Soto we just aren't going to be nearly as good offensively.

I'm expecting improvement from Robles. 

[Lazarchick 31]

I'm expecting improvement from Robles.

Enough to replace a top 3 hitter in all of baseball?  No

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Enough to replace a top 3 hitter in all of baseball?  No

no.  There's no replacing Rendon with one player.  I don't even think an aging Donaldson does, and Rendon has out-performed Bryant each of the past 3 years.  I think it will take multiple upgrades to make up for Rendon.  I think it is reasonable to expect one of those upgrades to be Robles's second year in the majors.

[Mattionals]

Also, asking for Robles who is pre arb eligible for a guy with one or maybe two years left of team control at High arb rates is never going to happen. I can see the ask for Kieboom, but asking for Robles immediately gets you laughed at.