Extend Soto

[Slateman]

Serious question: Someone explain to me why Soto is worth more than Mike Trout?

Baseball contracts are given out based on previous performance, not expectations. Trout was given 426 million coming off a 9 win 2018 season. His worst full season effort is better than Soto's best.

So why does Soto deserve more than a top 5 player in the history of baseball?

[DPMOmaha]

He's not, but your answer is because that's where the market is right now. And he's got the best agent in sports.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Serious question: Someone explain to me why Soto is worth more than Mike Trout?

Baseball contracts are given out based on previous performance, not expectations. Trout was given 426 million coming off a 9 win 2018 season. His worst full season effort is better than Soto's best.

So why does Soto deserve more than a top 5 player in the history of baseball?

inflation, and Trout took shorter money than he would have gotten going to market. 

[Five Banners]

Serious question: Someone explain to me why Soto is worth more than Mike Trout?

Baseball contracts are given out based on previous performance, not expectations. Trout was given 426 million coming off a 9 win 2018 season. His worst full season effort is better than Soto's best.

So why does Soto deserve more than a top 5 player in the history of baseball?

I don’t know that deservedness per apples to apples comparisons would be the main reason he gets what he gets. It seems more likely that it’s down how to the agent intends to frame things for someone with rare potential, especially on a deal that would keep him here.

[hotshot]

What's Soto worth if he ends up hitting and fielding as he has so far this season? Are we down from $500M to $400M?

[Natsinpwc]

What others have said about his salary.  And all it takes is more than one team interested to drive up the price. 

[zimm_da_kid]

Unlilely to get more than a third of that

You don’t think 2.5 years of Soto gets more than a third of that?

[Slateman]

You don’t think 2.5 years of Soto gets more than a third of that?

He isnt getting traded this season

[Natsinpwc]

Serious question: Someone explain to me why Soto is worth more than Mike Trout?

Baseball contracts are given out based on previous performance, not expectations. Trout was given 426 million coming off a 9 win 2018 season. His worst full season effort is better than Soto's best.

So why does Soto deserve more than a top 5 player in the history of baseball?

It’s based on past performance and expectations about the future.  And how many years you expect someone to perform at a high level which has to do with his age.  Health is also a factor. Soto seems to say healthy.  Trout not so much.

[Natsinpwc]

If the Yankees don’t re-sign Judge expect them to make a play for him in the off-season game or during next year. Of course the ownership change would need to be in place.

[Slateman]

It’s based on past performance and expectations about the future.  And how many years you expect someone to perform at a high level which has to do with his age.  Health is also a factor. Soto seems to say healthy.  Trout not so much.

Uh .... its not. If it were based on future expectations, no one over 30 would get a deal

[Natsinpwc]

Uh .... its not. If it were based on future expectations, no one over 30 would get a deal

This is one of your dumbest takes ever. And that is saying quite a lot.  Why would anyone offer a contract with no future expectations. Are you saying the Yankees would sign Soto to reward him for his performance on the Nats?  Plenty of guys produce after 30.  Like Max.

[Slateman]

This is one of your dumbest takes ever. And that is saying quite a lot.  Why would anyone offer a contract with no future expectations. Are you saying the Yankees would sign Soto to reward him for his performance on the Nats?  Plenty of guys produce after 30.  Like Max.

Because thats how baseball works. Max is an exception.

Or do you really think the Nationals handed Jayson Werth 128 million for ~18 WAR. By the time most guys hit free agency, they have, at most, a couple prime years left. Its mostly decline. Like Donaldson, Grandal, Keuchel, Hosmer, Rendon, Strasburg, and Moustakas.

This has always been the agreement . Players get underpaid during their team control period and its made up on the back end.

[Natsinpwc]

Because thats how baseball works. Max is an exception.

Or do you really think the Nationals handed Jayson Werth 128 million for ~18 WAR. By the time most guys hit free agency, they have, at most, a couple prime years left. Its mostly decline. Like Donaldson, Grandal, Keuchel, Hosmer, Rendon, Strasburg, and Moustakas.

This has always been the agreement . Players get underpaid during their team control period and its made up on the back end.

The most relevant example age wise is Harper and he is working out fine so far.  Soto will be 25/26.  He will have 4/5 peak years after signing as a free agent. 

[nfotiu]

Uh .... its not. If it were based on future expectations, no one over 30 would get a deal

Good teams don't commit to megadeals that go well into a player's 30s.   The teams that do it are more concerned with generating some off-season hype and star power than they are about building team that contends annually.   

A player is worth what a team will pay, period.   The smarter teams won't commit to paying guys 40 million a year well past their peak, but there are still some sucker teams that will and Boras will hold out until he sees what they are willing to pay.

[Slateman]

Good teams don't commit to megadeals that go well into a player's 30s.   The teams that do it are more concerned with generating some off-season hype and star power than they are about building team that contends annually.   

A player is worth what a team will pay, period.   The smarter teams won't commit to paying guys 40 million a year well past their peak, but there are still some sucker teams that will and Boras will hold out until he sees what they are willing to pay.

Im sorry, but what. Did the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Astros suddenly get removed from Major League Baseball?

[Elvir Ovcina]

Serious question: Someone explain to me why Soto is worth more than Mike Trout?

Baseball contracts are given out based on previous performance, not expectations. Trout was given 426 million coming off a 9 win 2018 season. His worst full season effort is better than Soto's best.

So why does Soto deserve more than a top 5 player in the history of baseball?

Stupid people give out baseball contracts based on performance, not expectations.  There are enough stupid GMs to drive the market, which I'm sure bothers the hell out of the rest of them.

Soto doesn't necessarily deserve more, but Trout was 28 when he signed that contract.  Soto will only be 24 this offseason, which is the only thing he'd have ahead of Trout, and there's been both real-world inflation and baseball-salary inflation since Trout signed.

[nfotiu]

Im sorry, but what. Did the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Astros suddenly get removed from Major League Baseball?

Dodgers are in a different realm.   They could have 100-200 million in annual dead money without breaking a sweat.

Red Sox and Astros don't have anything I would call mega deals on the books.   They have a few contracts in the 150 million range, but both seem to stay away from the >$200 million long term commitment a guy like Soto is asking for, and Red Sox did let Betts leave instead of giving him a deal like that.

[Slateman]

Dodgers are in a different realm.   They could have 100-200 million in annual dead money without breaking a sweat.

Red Sox and Astros don't have anything I would call mega deals on the books.   They have a few contracts in the 150 million range, but both seem to stay away from the >$200 million long term commitment a guy like Soto is asking for, and Red Sox did let Betts leave instead of giving him a deal like that.

Red Sox have a dude making 20+ million at age 34, and signed Story through his age 34 season. Oh and th ey also signed David Price to his 7 year, 217 million deal that took him through age 36. Oh and Chris Sale making 29 million a year until age 36.

Astros signed Verlander to a 2 year, 66 million deal at age 37. And they signed Altuve to 7/163 through his age 34 season.

Braves just signed Olson through his age 35 season

Padres signed both Machado and Tatis through age 35. Oh and Eric Hosmer

Rangers signed Semien and Seager through age 37

White Sox gave Abreu 3 years, 50 million at age 33. Grandal and Keuchel are also not cheap and signed through age 34.

The Cardinals have two players on expensive deals into their mid 30s.

The Reds have Votto under contract through age 39, and then went and gave 64 million to Moustakas at age 31

Brewers gave Yelich a monster deal through age 36

Blue Jays handed 31 year old George Springer a 6 year, 150 million deal. And 33 year old Ryu a 4 year, 80 million dollar deal. And then gave 31 year old Kevin Gausmann a 5 year, 110 million dollar deal

These are all big deals for these clubs and all to guys who will not be expected to perform up to the contract at the end of the deal. This is what teams HAVE to do to add talent through free agency.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Red Sox have a dude making 20+ million at age 34, and signed Story through his age 34 season. Oh and th ey also signed David Price to his 7 year, 217 million deal that took him through age 36. Oh and Chris Sale making 29 million a year until age 36.

Red Sox biggest contract is Sale's, which is $145 million guaranteed.  Next is Bogaerts at $120 million with the opt out this year negating a good chunk of that commitment.  They blew it on Price, and now are reluctant to go over $200 million.  They have tended to max out their years at 5 for pitchers.  They are less afraid of high AAV.

[bluestreak]

Here’s my favorite baseball podcast, Effectively Wild, talking about potentially trading Soto. These guys are really thoughtful about baseball and think trading Soto is absurd.

The Soto discussion starts at 31:45 and is really good.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/effectively-wild-episode-1851-you-say-tyler-i-say-taylor/

[Slateman]

Except Meg made very compelling arguments for trading him.

1. The team wont compete for a couple of years. Which will be Soto's last year in DC.

2. Boras rarely has clients who sign extensions.

3. Soto has no incentive to sign an extension. He's making 17 million this year. By the end of his team control, he will have made about 70 million. He has already accumulated generational wealth.

There are really only two compelling reasons to not trade him this year:

1. It would decrease the value of the franchise when the Lerners are trying to sell. Soto is the only reason this team will get national coverage/primetime games. They trade him and they lose revenue.

2. No team has any real motivation to really offer a compelling package. There are only a handful of teams that have the young talent available to make that trade. Whatever they give up would criple the team in three years. A Juan Soto doesnt make them a WS favorite. Heck, Juan Soto doesnt even guarantee them a playoff berth.


An extension seems simple to me. You offer him 12 years, 450 million. Front load it and put player options starting after the 2026 season. If he says no to that, he simply wants free agency and the Nationals need to act accordingly.

[Natsinpwc]

Team is not making any long term decisions on any player until the sale is completed.  So all this discussion is pointless for now.

[NatsAllThe Way]

.230 hitter and dropping like a stone.  Maybe he'll regret not taking the offer.

[bluestreak]

.230 hitter and dropping like a stone.  Maybe he'll regret not taking the offer.

130 wRC+ and a .234 BABIP. This is a bad take.