Author Topic: Extend Soto  (Read 7526 times)

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Offline Slateman

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #275: February 18, 2021, 11:05:10 AM »
You guys are right. Rizzo will be fired by then

Online DCFan

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #276: February 18, 2021, 11:13:29 AM »
You guys are right. Rizzo will be fired by then

Yep, Rizzo and Soto will both be gone.

Online Five Banners

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #277: February 18, 2021, 11:33:59 AM »
Yep, Rizzo and Soto will both be gone.

Nightmare of a future

Online DCFan

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #278: February 18, 2021, 11:53:50 AM »
Nightmare of a future

Yeah, it's going to be rough seeing Rizzo leading another team. ;)

Offline nfotiu

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #279: February 18, 2021, 12:25:24 PM »
Dunno why we're talking about this. Rizzo is just gonna let Soto walk so we can sign a 30+ year old pitcher :stir:

Isn't that how we won a world series?  :D

I think Rizzo has say in this.  He's generally allowed to spend up to the CBT however he likes.  I think we should be pretty ok with our owners.

For those saying they should ignore the CBT, it's more than just having to pay an extra million.  Once you're over, it's hard to get back under, and then you either have to do some major salary dumps or you're looking at paying a 50% premium on any new contracts.   

Offline varoadking

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #280: February 18, 2021, 12:49:08 PM »
For those saying they should ignore the CBT, it's more than just having to pay an extra million.  Once you're over, it's hard to get back under, and then you either have to do some major salary dumps or you're looking at paying a 50% premium on any new contracts.

I'd like to know the circumstances when we went over several years ago.  Some underling took the fall when the buck stops with Rizzo, or should. 

That had to be a seriously uncomfortable moment for Rizzo.  IIRC, he insisted they weren't over, until MLB said they were...

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #281: February 18, 2021, 01:34:07 PM »
That's very similar to the Giancarlo Stanton contract, but without the opt outs and for a player who's several years younger and at worst a comparable hitter.  If Soto would take that, I'd give it to him.   
it's a little inflation (an extra $5MM AAV), and I forget how early Stanton was locked up, but yes, it's really very precise as to what are reasonable numbers.  Both sides can blow off the other if they depart too much from this framework in the initial proposals.  FWIW, Harper's deal once he reached free agency was not that dissimilar in dollars and length. 

the tough thing is it means taking a hit on the luxury tax threshold early, but there's plenty to play with after this season.  I guess at this point that we might as well wait until after the MLBPA contract is worked out next offseason. 


Offline welch

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #282: February 18, 2021, 04:26:37 PM »
Isn't that how we won a world series?  :D

I think Rizzo has say in this.  He's generally allowed to spend up to the CBT however he likes.  I think we should be pretty ok with our owners.

For those saying they should ignore the CBT, it's more than just having to pay an extra million.  Once you're over, it's hard to get back under, and then you either have to do some major salary dumps or you're looking at paying a 50% premium on any new contracts.   

Not entirely: it's a 50% premium on every dollar above the CBT. That's why the Dodgers and Yankees don't pay attention to the luxury tax, although the Dodgers got down to a "reset" a couple seasons ago.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #283: February 18, 2021, 05:06:26 PM »
Not entirely: it's a 50% premium on every dollar above the CBT. That's why the Dodgers and Yankees don't pay attention to the luxury tax, although the Dodgers got down to a "reset" a couple seasons ago.
as did the NYY, and Boston, too. 

Offline Mathguy

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #284: February 18, 2021, 07:46:42 PM »
Even tougher seeing DCFan rooting for another team

Yeah, it's going to be rough seeing Rizzo leading another team. ;)

Offline richmanwashnats

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #285: February 19, 2021, 07:25:48 PM »
The Nats Report has a really great article about how the Tatis Deal Impacts the Nationals & More Importantly Juan Soto: https://thenatsreport.com/02/18/2021/allnews/how-the-tatis-deal-impacts-the-nationals-more-importantly-juan-soto/

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #286: February 21, 2021, 01:10:18 PM »
The Nats Report has a really great article about how the Tatis Deal Impacts the Nationals & More Importantly Juan Soto: https://thenatsreport.com/02/18/2021/allnews/how-the-tatis-deal-impacts-the-nationals-more-importantly-juan-soto/
Thanks.  There will be a few differences with the Tatis deal.  Tatis plays SS, and will continue to play SS for a good chunk of his deal, while Soto is a corner outfielder.  That tends to bump up Tatis's value relative to Soto.  Soto is a Super 2, Tatis wasn't, so Soto a contract signed next year would buy out years 2/3/4 of arbitration while Tatis's bought out a prearb year and three trips to arbitration.  The pre-free agency years bought out for Soto would, all things being equal, be a bit more expensive than Tatis's were it not for the position.  The two are a little over 2 months apart age-wise, so figure the end date can be the same (age 36).  You can look at the Tatis deal and figure it prices his free agent years at $30 million a year for 10 years (similar to Bregman's deal, but for 10 years and not 2), and his 4 years of team control at $40 million (again, based off Bregman's deal). 

What would 3 years of Soto team control for his second, third, and 4th time through arbitration be worth?  Bellinger was a Super 2, and he's gotten $11.5MM for 2020 and is getting $16.1MM for this year.  Given that Soto is getting $8.5MM for his Super 2 year, maybe his pre-arb years are worth $8.5 MM, $13 MM, $20 MM, and $27 MM (latter 2 just taking Mookie Betts last 2 years even though he was not Super 2).  Maybe discount the Betts numbers a bit because he was an MVP, like Bellinger, but not too much.   Say you value his last 3 years at $55MM instead of $60MM.  With a long term contract, you trade off some money for security, so maybe discount it a bit more to $50MM.  That sounds like 13 years, $350 million as a starting point.  That does not take out Trout (a cf) or Betts (12 FA years) as the most total dollars, but it is more than Tatis, Harper, or Stanton. 

Offline Sirjesse

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #287: February 21, 2021, 09:59:34 PM »
Thanks.  There will be a few differences with the Tatis deal.  Tatis plays SS, and will continue to play SS for a good chunk of his deal, while Soto is a corner outfielder.  That tends to bump up Tatis's value relative to Soto.  Soto is a Super 2, Tatis wasn't, so Soto a contract signed next year would buy out years 2/3/4 of arbitration while Tatis's bought out a prearb year and three trips to arbitration.  The pre-free agency years bought out for Soto would, all things being equal, be a bit more expensive than Tatis's were it not for the position.  The two are a little over 2 months apart age-wise, so figure the end date can be the same (age 36).  You can look at the Tatis deal and figure it prices his free agent years at $30 million a year for 10 years (similar to Bregman's deal, but for 10 years and not 2), and his 4 years of team control at $40 million (again, based off Bregman's deal). 

What would 3 years of Soto team control for his second, third, and 4th time through arbitration be worth?  Bellinger was a Super 2, and he's gotten $11.5MM for 2020 and is getting $16.1MM for this year.  Given that Soto is getting $8.5MM for his Super 2 year, maybe his pre-arb years are worth $8.5 MM, $13 MM, $20 MM, and $27 MM (latter 2 just taking Mookie Betts last 2 years even though he was not Super 2).  Maybe discount the Betts numbers a bit because he was an MVP, like Bellinger, but not too much.   Say you value his last 3 years at $55MM instead of $60MM.  With a long term contract, you trade off some money for security, so maybe discount it a bit more to $50MM.  That sounds like 13 years, $350 million as a starting point.  That does not take out Trout (a cf) or Betts (12 FA years) as the most total dollars, but it is more than Tatis, Harper, or Stanton.


If we sign Soto long term I believe the first number of that contract is a 4. Further, I believe if you signed him  to the same years as Tatis and got him for 400 or even 420, I believe you are getting very good value. It’s shocking to contemplate, but on paper, proper insurance, it’s a very good deal for both sides.

Offline Count Walewski

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #288: February 21, 2021, 10:10:01 PM »
Obviously the difference is that the Padres look like they are set to dominate the 2020's while the Nationals are nearing a rebuild.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #289: February 21, 2021, 10:39:38 PM »
Obviously the difference is that the Padres look like they are set to dominate the 2020's while the Nationals are nearing a rebuild.

Padres aren’t dominating crap in that division.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #290: February 22, 2021, 07:26:29 AM »
Dont know why we're so hot to extend him. Everytime we let an outfielder sign the largest contract in free agency, we win a world series

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #291: February 22, 2021, 08:14:08 AM »
Dont know why we're so hot to extend him. Everytime we let an outfielder sign the largest contract in free agency, we win a world series
But when we let a 3B go it’s disaster. Extend Kieboom.

Offline NJ Ave

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #292: February 22, 2021, 10:14:05 AM »
Ask Soto and his agent to write a number of years and dollars on a piece of paper. Offer 90% of that. There you go.

If you had signed Albert Pujols to a 14-year contract at the same age you would have gotten 5.5 WAR per year on average and three MVPs. With Miguel Cabrera you only would have gotten 4.8 WAR on average and 2 MVPs. Manny Ramirez just 4.5 WAR on average and 0 MVPs.

I mean, besides a 5% chance of catastrophic injury (and honestly that's debatable because the NL will have a DH sometime in the next 5 years even if he can no longer play in the field), but besides that what do we honestly think the floor is for the next 14 years? like 7-8 all-star level seasons? I don't think we'd regret this deal no matter what we pay.

Offline Dave in Fairfax

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #293: February 22, 2021, 11:14:14 AM »
This is the structure of the Tatis conract, according to MLBtraderumors:

"Tatis will make $1MM in 2021, $5MM in 2022, $7MM in 2023, $11MM in 2024, $20MM apiece in 2025 and 2026, $25MM in 2027 and 2028, and then $36MM yearly from 2029 through 2034, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand."

How does that backloaded structure affect your thinking of what the Nats could or would do with Soto?

EDIT TO ADD: Machado is contracted through the 2028 season, so the jump from $25mil to $36mil happens after Manny comes off the books.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #294: February 22, 2021, 11:29:27 AM »
The Tatis contract is irrelevant to Soto

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #295: February 22, 2021, 11:33:59 AM »
The Tatis contract is irrelevant to Soto
on the one hand, Tatis is a SS so that should be more valuable.  On the other hand, it really does look like, with Trout & Betts, with 4 of the 5 biggest contracts being outfielders, I'm not sure that position really factors much into the calculation. 

Online DCFan

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #296: February 22, 2021, 11:47:03 AM »
The Tatis contract is irrelevant to Soto

Of course it is.

Online Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #297: February 22, 2021, 11:52:42 AM »
on the one hand, Tatis is a SS so that should be more valuable.  On the other hand, it really does look like, with Trout & Betts, with 4 of the 5 biggest contracts being outfielders, I'm not sure that position really factors much into the calculation.

But Trout plays CF and Betts is a superlative RF.  Both of them and Tatis have significant value from that.  With Soto, the question is how long he can play in the field at all, let alone where.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #298: February 22, 2021, 12:17:44 PM »
But Trout plays CF and Betts is a superlative RF.  Both of them and Tatis have significant value from that.  With Soto, the question is how long he can play in the field at all, let alone where.
would you say Stanton is the most similar big contract guy? Harper was an actual FA at the time.  Maybe the model is to inflate Stanton's contract given how old it is.  But that had an opt out, I think, and you probably want to avoid that unless it gives you a big AAV discount now and you plan to pay later.

Offline Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: Extend Soto
« Reply #299: February 22, 2021, 12:19:38 PM »
Acuña money might be as far as (any) owners will go in a time of almost zero revenue.