Author Topic: Arbitration Projections  (Read 139 times)

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Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Arbitration Projections
« Topic Start: October 10, 2019, 04:44:14 PM »
From mlbtraderumors.com

Nationals (8)
•Hunter Strickland – $1.9MM
•Javy Guerra – $1.3MM
•Michael A. Taylor – $3.25MM
•Roenis Elias – $1.9MM
•Joe Ross – $1.4MM
•Trea Turner – $7.5MM
•Koda Glover – $700K
•Wilmer Difo – $1.2MM

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Arbitration Projections
« Reply #1: October 10, 2019, 04:50:40 PM »
I love MAT, but you can't give him $3.25MM.  Maybe he comes back on a cheaper deal after being non-tendered?  Or maybe he finds a better chance to play regularly elsewhere? 

We just traded for Elias and Strickland at the deadline with the idea of retaining them in 2020.  Is 1.99MM too much of a price tag?  Strickland had been good in the past as a Giant.  I think Elias is still seen as someone with potential for more.  It will be interesting to see what Rizzo does. 

Ross is a no brainer.  I really don't know if Guerra will be tendered.  It seems minor league free agents can replace him as bullpen depth.  Difo took a step back this year...but 1.2MM is still cheap.  Glover?  Will he ever even pitch again? 

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: Arbitration Projections
« Reply #2: October 10, 2019, 04:52:03 PM »
Glover with robbery

Hope he makes his way back

Online mitlen

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Re: Arbitration Projections
« Reply #3: October 10, 2019, 04:57:36 PM »
Glover with robbery

Hope he makes his way back

What is up with Glover injury wise?

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Arbitration Projections
« Reply #4: October 10, 2019, 04:58:50 PM »
What is up with Glover injury wise?

Everything?

Offline UMDNats

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Re: Arbitration Projections
« Reply #5: October 10, 2019, 04:59:38 PM »
We're too tight of cash to commit $3 million to MAT. I think, though, that we end up dealing him this winter to get some semblance of value back. Maybe a rebuilding team with a infield utility guy or spare bullpen arm needs a CF.

Elias and Strickland will be back.

Glover and Difo strike me as non-tender candidates but Glover may come back since we are so short on guys. I'd expect absolutely nothing from him but if he is healthy this winter it can't hurt to have a lottery ticket in AAA who may be useful as a shuttle guy to take lumps in blowouts. Then again, he is always hurt and also stinks, so meh.

Difo is a clear non-tender or trade candidate.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Arbitration Projections
« Reply #6: October 10, 2019, 05:06:22 PM »
We're too tight of cash to commit $3 million to MAT. I think, though, that we end up dealing him this winter to get some semblance of value back. Maybe a rebuilding team with a infield utility guy or spare bullpen arm needs a CF.

Elias and Strickland will be back.

Glover and Difo strike me as non-tender candidates but Glover may come back since we are so short on guys. I'd expect absolutely nothing from him but if he is healthy this winter it can't hurt to have a lottery ticket in AAA who may be useful as a shuttle guy to take lumps in blowouts. Then again, he is always hurt and also stinks, so meh.

Difo is a clear non-tender or trade candidate.

Will any team want to commit anything in return and take on MAT's salary?  If we do tender him, there's a risk we don't find a trade partner and are stuck paying him.  Not that it's terrible...it's not THAT much and MAT is loved by this franchise. 

I tend to agree on Elias and Strickland. 

Giving Glover 700K is as low risk/high reward as you can get.  The Nats obviously know his health situation.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Arbitration Projections
« Reply #7: October 10, 2019, 05:28:27 PM »
From mlbtraderumors.com

Nationals (8)
•Hunter Strickland – $1.9MM
•Javy Guerra – $1.3MM
•Michael A. Taylor – $3.25MM
•Roenis Elias – $1.9MM
•Joe Ross – $1.4MM
•Trea Turner – $7.5MM
•Koda Glover – $700K
•Wilmer Difo – $1.2MM

Strickland probably comes back at that number.  Same for Elias.  If those guys turn into even halfway decent relievers again, both those contracts are fine.  Guerra doesn't - dude got DFAed twice and is now behind guys like Rainey and Voth.  I don't quite get it, but the team doesn't seem to like him. 

MAT is a tough call for all the reasons already discussed.  As useful as he's been in the playoffs, he spent half the year in the minors for a reason.  They're not going to carry 5 OFs all season.  Strangely, however, I think he still has one option year left and his time in the minors mean he won't have 5 years of service time, so he could still serve as an up and down guy for next season if they can eat the cost.  That's a big if, though. 

Difo is the same kind of deal, but a different result.  He's versatile, switch-hits, plays a lot of positions.  The problem is that he sucks in almost every aspect of the game.  I'm not sure why you spend ~700k over an MLB minimum guy if either one is going to be a gigantic black hole. 

Ross is a harder call.  There doesn't seem to be much indication that he's ever going to get his form back.  On the other hand, this organization has basically no pitching depth.  I've got no idea.

Turner is a no-brainer in one direction, as is Glover in the other.  Why would you pay him an MLB salary and tie up a 40-man roster spot? There's no way he gets an MLB contract anywhere else, so why tender him one?


Offline UMDNats

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Re: Arbitration Projections
« Reply #8: October 10, 2019, 05:38:37 PM »
Will any team want to commit anything in return and take on MAT's salary?  If we do tender him, there's a risk we don't find a trade partner and are stuck paying him.  Not that it's terrible...it's not THAT much and MAT is loved by this franchise. 


I look at teams like Miami, Detroit and Kansas City and see teams that won't be spending much and could use an OF who has some upside for pretty cheap while also being a really solid defender. Maybe I'm over-valuing MAT but think there's a rebuilding team who looks at him and says he just needs some tweaks and he can be a 90-ish OPS+ hitter with good defense, which is something a rebuilding team could definitely use.

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Arbitration Projections
« Reply #9: October 10, 2019, 05:38:53 PM »
Strickland probably comes back at that number.  Same for Elias.  If those guys turn into even halfway decent relievers again, both those contracts are fine.  Guerra doesn't - dude got DFAed twice and is now behind guys like Rainey and Voth.  I don't quite get it, but the team doesn't seem to like him. 

MAT is a tough call for all the reasons already discussed.  As useful as he's been in the playoffs, he spent half the year in the minors for a reason.  They're not going to carry 5 OFs all season.  Strangely, however, I think he still has one option year left and his time in the minors mean he won't have 5 years of service time, so he could still serve as an up and down guy for next season if they can eat the cost.  That's a big if, though. 

Difo is the same kind of deal, but a different result.  He's versatile, switch-hits, plays a lot of positions.  The problem is that he sucks in almost every aspect of the game.  I'm not sure why you spend ~700k over an MLB minimum guy if either one is going to be a gigantic black hole. 

Ross is a harder call.  There doesn't seem to be much indication that he's ever going to get his form back.  On the other hand, this organization has basically no pitching depth.  I've got no idea.

Turner is a no-brainer in one direction, as is Glover in the other.  Why would you pay him an MLB salary and tie up a 40-man roster spot? There's no way he gets an MLB contract anywhere else, so why tender him one?

Ross was really, really good in August and September.  I think that's an easy call.  He should be the favorite to be the #5 starter, and at 26, he might just now be coming into his best years. 

From 8/2 on, which includes 1 terrible start against the Mets where he gave up 7 ER, he pitched 39 1/3 innings to the tune of a 2.75 ERA.  He looked like he was back fully healthy from the TJ surgery.  It takes time to get your stuff and command fully back.  I'm bullish on Joe for 2020.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Arbitration Projections
« Reply #10: October 10, 2019, 05:45:37 PM »
Ross was really, really good in August and September.  I think that's an easy call.  He should be the favorite to be the #5 starter, and at 26, he might just now be coming into his best years. 

From 8/2 on, which includes 1 terrible start against the Mets where he gave up 7 ER, he pitched 39 1/3 innings to the tune of a 2.75 ERA.  He looked like he was back fully healthy from the TJ surgery.  It takes time to get your stuff and command fully back.  I'm bullish on Joe for 2020.

I wish I could be so optimistic, but I'm inclined to come down on the side you do after a little more thought.  A 2.75 ERA doesn't match up well with the number of runners he was allowing.  I like Ross.  I just don't see him as being likely to be a viable rotation option on more than a fill-in basis. 

Offline CoryTheFormerExposFan

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Re: Arbitration Projections
« Reply #11: October 10, 2019, 06:26:12 PM »
I wish I could be so optimistic, but I'm inclined to come down on the side you do after a little more thought.  A 2.75 ERA doesn't match up well with the number of runners he was allowing.  I like Ross.  I just don't see him as being likely to be a viable rotation option on more than a fill-in basis.

You don't need to be near a 2.75 ERA to be a viable rotation option as a #5.  He already was a viable rotation option between 32 starts in 2015 and 2016 where he had an ERA of 3.64 in '15 and 3.43 in '16.  Then he had TJ and is now getting back to form.  I don't see why you're so down on him, but to each their own.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Arbitration Projections
« Reply #12: October 10, 2019, 06:34:03 PM »
You don't need to be near a 2.75 ERA to be a viable rotation option as a #5.  He already was a viable rotation option between 32 starts in 2015 and 2016 where he had an ERA of 3.64 in '15 and 3.43 in '16.  Then he had TJ and is now getting back to form.  I don't see why you're so down on him, but to each their own.

Oh, I know.  He was a solid mid-to-back end starter back then.  But he's more than two full years off of surgery, and it's not like his injury history is clean aside from that.  My concern isn't primarily skills, it's health.   He was finally getting the ball down and sinking consistently in August, but he was still walking guys.  Most guys who get their control back after TJ have it back by that point, and his is still borderline (but not enough to make him not an MLB pitcher).  The problem is that he always seems to be hurt.  I think you could get him out there for 10 starts of low-4s ERA.  Maybe that's pessimistic.  I dunno. 

Online Slateman

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Re: Arbitration Projections
« Reply #13: October 10, 2019, 08:24:52 PM »
I'm more interested in keeping MAT over Difo, Guerra, Strickland, and Glover

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Arbitration Projections
« Reply #14: October 10, 2019, 08:43:52 PM »
I think Voth is ahead of Ross for 5th starter and is $900k cheaper. There's Fedde too, and then a few prospects. I could see a non-tender. Difo has Sanchez who can play the same positions. I don't disagree with the Strickland and elias calls

Online Slateman

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Re: Arbitration Projections
« Reply #15: October 10, 2019, 09:01:33 PM »
I think Voth is ahead of Ross for 5th starter and is $900k cheaper. There's Fedde too, and then a few prospects. I could see a non-tender. Difo has Sanchez who can play the same positions. I don't disagree with the Strickland and elias calls
We have two starting pitchers that have had multiple trips to the IL or missed starts in the last three years. We need starting pitching that's cheap and under team control.