Author Topic: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!  (Read 16943 times)

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Offline djbaseball13

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #250: October 14, 2019, 09:01:03 AM »
I'm not following the betting line, so this is just a guess - Cards have Flaherty and Hudson the next two games. I suspect Cards are favored for the first game and the second game is even.  This is not going to be easy.

Well, here's my analysis.  If both pitchers bring their "A" game then I'd still take Strasburg. But, let's play nice and call it even?  1. Nats have the better offense by all accounts. We score more, and we are hotter right now (because the the Cards are ice cold)   2. We have home field advantage  3. Bullpens?  I like the Nats:  Doolittle and Husdon have been good, and the Cards bullpen doesn't scare me

Taking it all in consideration, I don't see how Vegas could favor the Cards.   

Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #251: October 14, 2019, 09:05:47 AM »
That's what I recall as well. If you go on the IL you have to miss the next series which in this instance would be THE series.

They probably should have left him off for this series.

That being said. It’s unclear why they didn’t pinch run Voth for Adams. Thankfully Eaton hit a double.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #252: October 14, 2019, 09:06:54 AM »
Well, here's my analysis.  If both pitchers bring their "A" game then I'd still take Strasburg. But, let's play nice and call it even?  1. Nats have the better offense by all accounts. We score more, and we are hotter right now (because the the Cards are ice cold)   2. We have home field advantage  3. Bullpens?  I like the Nats:  Doolittle and Husdon have been good, and the Cards bullpen doesn't scare me

Taking it all in consideration, I don't see how Vegas could favor the Cards.

They don’t. Nats are slight favorites. Will be bigger favorites in game 4.

Offline DCFan

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #253: October 14, 2019, 09:08:21 AM »
Taking it all in consideration, I don't see how Vegas could favor the Cards.   

The choke factor.

Offline DCFan

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #254: October 14, 2019, 09:12:45 AM »
They probably should have left him off for this series.

That being said. It’s unclear why they didn’t pinch run Voth for Adams. Thankfully Eaton hit a double.

How many times over the years have we been baffled by the decisions of this medical staff? All too often they have been overly optimistic about players injuries and their ability to return to norm. As you know hamstring injuries for speedy guys are always problematic.

Offline djbaseball13

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #255: October 14, 2019, 09:14:27 AM »
The choke factor.

Sometime in late May, the Nats held a closed door "heimlich maneuver" training session.  And afterwards Adam Eaton hosted a Seinfeld watch party.

Offline Smithian

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #256: October 14, 2019, 09:17:00 AM »
I believe that Robles is on the roster because if they sub him out for someone like Stevenson he is ineligible for the WS.
He should be been put on DL last series. They've gone enough games with a short bench that they may as well wait now.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #257: October 14, 2019, 09:23:56 AM »
How many times over the years have we been baffled by the decisions of this medical staff? All too often they have been overly optimistic about players injuries and their ability to return to norm. As you know hamstring injuries for speedy guys are always problematic.

I hate the piling on of the medical staff because 1) we certainly don’t have complete information, 2) people aren’t machines and don’t heal on a precise schedules and 3) This wasn’t a medical decision. This was a calculated decision by the manager/FO to take the risk he would be ready.  There’s almost zero chance that somebody on the medical staff said, “he’ll definitely be ready by game 3,” for example. They give timetables and you take chances.

Offline DCFan

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #258: October 14, 2019, 09:28:25 AM »
I hate the piling on of the medical staff because 1) we certainly don’t have complete information, 2) people aren’t machines and don’t heal on a precise schedules and 3) This wasn’t a medical decision. This was a calculated decision by the manager/FO to take the risk he would be ready.  There’s almost zero chance that somebody on the medical staff said, “he’ll definitely be ready by game 3,” for example. They give timetables and you take chances.

I disagree that the medical staff had no input into this decision process. There's no question that all heads in the conference room looked to the docs when the Q was raised about Robles return to norm.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #259: October 14, 2019, 09:36:47 AM »
I disagree that the medical staff had no input into this decision process. There's no question that all heads in the conference room looked to the docs when the Q was raised about Robles return to norm.

I’m not saying they had no input, but I’m sure they didn’t give a precise date. They likely said “injuries like this typically take 1-3 weeks to heal fully.” And the FO made a decision based on the low number and not the high one. You don’t typically get any more precision than that and there is no new information you can get other than seeing how the guy progresses.

Anyone claiming they can predict with more precision is lying...

Offline vicki4471

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #260: October 14, 2019, 09:49:32 AM »
On a scale of 1-10 one being the lowest, what is everyone's confidence level at today about taking this series?

Offline varoadking

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #261: October 14, 2019, 10:00:57 AM »
On a scale of 1-10 one being the lowest, what is everyone's confidence level at today about taking this series?

9.99999

Feel free to round up...  ;)

Offline spidernat

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #262: October 14, 2019, 10:02:25 AM »
On a scale of 1-10 one being the lowest, what is everyone's confidence level at today about taking this series?



9.1

Offline Greg_SRT

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #263: October 14, 2019, 10:09:28 AM »
On a scale of 1-10 one being the lowest, what is everyone's confidence level at today about taking this series?

10 that they win the series.

I don't think there is a team in the league they can't beat. Obviously I don't think they are invincible. I just think they have the right combinations, with off days in between travel to limit the weaknesses they have.

Offline djbaseball13

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #264: October 14, 2019, 10:15:56 AM »
On a scale of 1-10 one being the lowest, what is everyone's confidence level at today about taking this series?

9    I think it's 50/50 that we close them out at home. The Nats should keep the pressure on and stay aggressive. We need to steal more bases, and get to their bullpen before they get to ours. The longer we stick with Strasburg the better. 

Offline tenken627

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #265: October 14, 2019, 10:21:56 AM »
The Nats will win Game 3 and 4 and the Cardinals will take Game 5

Offline varoadking

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #266: October 14, 2019, 10:22:35 AM »
The Nats will win Game 3 and 4 and the Cardinals will take Game 5

 :spit:

Offline DCFan

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #267: October 14, 2019, 10:28:09 AM »
On a scale of 1-10 one being the lowest, what is everyone's confidence level at today about taking this series?

10

Offline varoadking

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #268: October 14, 2019, 10:29:38 AM »

My reasoning is that it's a 5 game series now, and we have a pretty good track record of taking 2 out of 5...   :D

Offline spidernat

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #269: October 14, 2019, 10:47:26 AM »
My reasoning is that it's a 5 game series now, and we have a pretty good track record of taking 2 out of 5...   :D



that's it, it's a 5 game series where you only have to win 2 games and the first 3 games are at home

Online Slateman

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #270: October 14, 2019, 10:52:59 AM »
I think if you have a lead and you need to pull Stras before the 7th inning, using Scherzer Sanchez for an inning has to be an option.

Offline bluestreak

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #271: October 14, 2019, 11:00:38 AM »
For the first time this year the Nats currently have the highest odds to win the World Series according to FiveThirtyEight.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

This is purely based on the fact that the ALCS is currently a tossup and we are very heavy favorites to win NLCS. Once an ALCS winner is determined Nats will 2-1 underdogs.

But still cool to see, given the start.


Offline djbaseball13

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #272: October 14, 2019, 11:03:12 AM »
I think if you have a lead and you need to pull Stras before the 7th inning, using Scherzer Sanchez for an inning has to be an option.

I think those options will wait until game 6/7.  Max wants to focus on starts. I'd be ok with Rainey coming in the 6th or 7th. Pitching in these games has to take a toll on pitchers regardless of how many pitches are thrown. This could be a great chance for the bullpen to etch their names on this season!

Offline djbaseball13

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #273: October 14, 2019, 11:05:56 AM »
For the first time this year the Nats currently have the highest odds to win the World Series according to FiveThirtyEight.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/

This is purely based on the fact that the ALCS is currently a tossup and we are very heavy favorites to win NLCS. Once an ALCS winner is determined Nats will 2-1 underdogs.

But still cool to see, given the start.

2-1 underdogs?  Are you sure that Vegas is ok with that?  I'm biased, but that seems like a good bet.  I've got 25-1 myself  :D

Offline RiotAct

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Re: 2019 NLCS - Here come the Cardinals!
« Reply #274: October 14, 2019, 11:14:06 AM »
On a scale of 1-10 one being the lowest, what is everyone's confidence level at today about taking this series?


8.5